Skip to main content
Hercules Haralambides
  • Erasmus School of Economics
    Erasmus University Rotterdam
    Oostmaaslaan 336
    3063 DD Rotterdam
A lot of ink has been shed lately on the concept of port connectivity. This is particularly true currently in view of the strength of global shipping alliances (GSA), their ability to jointly ‘manage’ the supply of tonnage, and the... more
A lot of ink has been shed lately on the concept of port connectivity. This is particularly true currently in view of the strength of global shipping alliances (GSA), their ability to jointly ‘manage’ the supply of tonnage, and the negative impact such power has had on the frequency of services, the number of companies calling at a port, on containership sizes, and call sizes, i.e., on port connectivity. However, connectivity alone cannot explain the importance of a port as an international hub, its attractiveness to shippers, and its ability to develop new transshipment traffic (no matter how well connected a port is in the Arctic, or in Tierra del Fuego, it will never assume hub-port status). We argue that connectivity needs to be combined with measures of centrality , as these are derived from network theory . We thus introduce the novel concept of composite connectivity : Through an innovative use of two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) and complex network theory, we first evaluate the efficiency of ‘basic connectivity’ and use this as input in the second stage, which measures the strength of centrality . To do so, we employ such network theory measures as betweenness centrality , closeness centrality , and eigenvector centrality . The “Composite Connectivity Index” — CCI is thus obtained as the ratio of (our measures of) port centrality to port connectivity. The top nine mainland China ports are used as a case-study. Our results (and rankings) conform to the general perception on the international importance of the ports of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong, thus demonstrating the validity of our model. The usefulness of CCI as a decision-support tool for ports with hub aspirations is, we believe, obvious.
We evaluate the respective roles, functions and prospects of the 15 Chinese ports, intended to be the 'eastern end' of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). To achieve this, and thus contribute to the future development of... more
We evaluate the respective roles, functions and prospects of the 15 Chinese ports, intended to be the 'eastern end' of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). To achieve this, and thus contribute to the future development of BRI, we introduce the concept of sustainable development capability. We employ principal component analysis and analytic hierarchy process to build a model which evaluates the (cooperative) sustainability of the ports, based on four dimensions: capacity of port operations; (ambient) economic conditions; environmental factors; and human intellect and technology (HIT). Sensitivity and cluster analysis are used, to classify the ports into four categories (respective roles): international hub ports, regional hub ports, node ports, and regional gate ports. We hope that the port system we present and assess here will provide guidance to ports and countries, especially in Europe, leading to the right 'port alliances', that could turn BRI into an efficient global transportation system.
This is the Introduction and Part I (container leasing market) of the complete Report on Liner Shipping and Containerization. All things considered, investing in containers is not a bad idea after all.
&amp... more
&amp...
"Since its appearance in 2003, the what has come to be known as “The Erasmus Report” has been making headlines throughout the world. This, mainly due to its finding that “liner shipping conferences have a stabilizing... more
"Since its appearance in 2003, the what has come to be known as “The Erasmus Report” has been making headlines throughout the world. This, mainly due to its finding that “liner shipping conferences have a stabilizing effect on freight rates and are thus a low cost ‘necessary evil’ for trade promotion and for the survival from destructive competition of this most crucial of industries”. Unfortunately, this result was not to the liking of DG COMP who, as it became clear, had already made its decision to do away with conferences, expecting the Erasmus Report to just rubber stamp its decision. Ten years later (2012) the Report continues to prove how right it was. European shippers now vehemently complain about rate volatility and this is just music to my ears."
"ATENCO was perhaps one of the largest European Commission projects on port development and pricing. The main objective of the project was to gauge the extent to which infrastructure development policies and related... more
"ATENCO was perhaps one of the largest European Commission projects on port development and pricing. The main objective of the project was to gauge the extent to which infrastructure development policies and related pricing in one country/port might impact traffic distribution among competing ports, and consequently to assess the desirability of developing a more harmonised approach towards port development across Europe. The present brief report to the European Commission, uploaded below, summarizes the objectives of the various Work Packages and presents the project’s main conclusions. Amongst them, the project claims that, in spite of the benefits to society of long-run marginal cost pricing, in industries with high fixed costs, capital indivisibilities and increasing returns to scale such as ports, particularly those operating in a competitive environment, marginal cost pricing is not so straightforward, whereas full cost recovery, in combination with the user pays principle, can form a workable basis for fair and efficient pricing. In addition, the project advocated for the need for accurate and standardised statistics on various port magnitudes and costs; transparency in port accounts and standardisation of accounting systems; definition of the relationship between the port and its ‘institutional supervisor’; and agreement on what is or is not allowed as public support to seaports (state aid). The report showed that if further progress on these issues were to be made, full cost recovery would become more straightforward, while the pricing policies to implement this could be left to the commercial skills of individual ports."
I have updated my ever-developing OBOR presentation, following countless discussions with senior policy makers in Europe and China, with more inputs on European trade and investment policies; TPP; Regional Comprehensive Economic... more
I have updated my ever-developing OBOR presentation, following countless discussions with senior policy makers in Europe and China, with more inputs on European trade and investment policies; TPP; Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP); Persian Gulf Ports; Africa; Mediterranean; Iran; Russia; India; Pakistan; as well as certain (in my view) "missing links" in the Caspian and Black Seas. I also touch upon Global Shipping Alliances, mega-ships, Panama and Suez Canals. Finally, some thoughts on European ports policy and on the financing of ports are offered. To be continued (of course)...
Recent research shows that a 10% improvement in connectivity between countries along the “Maritime Silk Road†would deliver a 3% decrease in Chinese trade costs, which would in turn boost China’s imports and exports by around 6% and... more
Recent research shows that a 10% improvement in connectivity between countries along the “Maritime Silk Road†would deliver a 3% decrease in Chinese trade costs, which would in turn boost China’s imports and exports by around 6% and 9% respectively. We identify two ‘missing links’ of BRI: a) connecting the Caspian- to the Black Sea, from Turkmenistan to Romania (branching to Istanbul), and from there – through the port of Constanza and the Danube-Rhine fluvial corridor- all the way up to the North Sea, to Rotterdam in particular; b) connecting the Upper Persian Gulf port system to the Mediterranean. COSCO’s target for Piraeus is for it to become the biggest European port over the next decade, doubling its cargo handling capacity.
From the poorly managed public infrastructures of the previous century, ports have evolved into high-tech enterprises and crucial nodes in global supply chains of production, transport and distribution. Containerization has been... more
From the poorly managed public infrastructures of the previous century, ports have evolved into high-tech enterprises and crucial nodes in global supply chains of production, transport and distribution. Containerization has been instrumental in this transformation, together with the impressive and seemingly unstoppable gigantism in containership sizes. The former ‘city-ports’ –facilities created inside or at the confines of river cities—are no longer sufficient to handle the requirements of modern ships, and ports, in need of more space and water depths, have moved downstream, in river estuaries, towards the open sea. Pressure on ports to continue upgrading their infrastructure is mounting, necessitated by increasing port competition and the requirements of mega-ships. Limits to growth are, however, visible, and equally visible is the need for a more balanced approach between the benefits of mega-ships and the costs these ships impose on the planning, development and operations of ports.
Abstract Port Integration (PI) -or port industry consolidation-is actively pursued in many countries around the world. It has been established that unfettered competition among ports in proximity leads to unnecessary duplication of effort... more
Abstract Port Integration (PI) -or port industry consolidation-is actively pursued in many countries around the world. It has been established that unfettered competition among ports in proximity leads to unnecessary duplication of effort and waste of scarce port resources. We adopt the Difference-in-Differences (DID) model to analyze the effect of PI on urban economic growth, as well as to identify the causes of spatial differences in urban development, possibly due to PI. We have analyzed datasets from 69 port cities in China, from 2000 to 2018. Our results show that PI can significantly advance the economic growth of port cities, and its effects increase with time. We also show that port integration has a clear positive effect on the economic growth of cities in the Yangtze River Delta region (YRD), particularly on small- and medium-sized cities. The economic effects of PI on cities in the Bohai Rim region (BR) and on big cities is, instead, insignificant. This result indicates the existence of strong spatial differences in the impacts of PI. Moreover, we show that PI has positive effects on the rationalization of port resources and their allocation among regional ports, promoting, in this way too, urban economic growth. In China, in particular, the country's port integration strategy has effectively driven the development of numerous ports, and it has successfully contributed to the development of the country's strong transportation network. Our findings provide useful guidelines to ports around the world, in their process of integrating and consolidating their port-, transport- and logistics sectors.
Abstract The boundary lines of the hinterlands of container ports, for as long as these exist, serve as reference points for future port development and infrastructure planning. In earlier efforts to delineate the hinterlands of Chinese... more
Abstract The boundary lines of the hinterlands of container ports, for as long as these exist, serve as reference points for future port development and infrastructure planning. In earlier efforts to delineate the hinterlands of Chinese ports, either the number of ports considered was limited, or the demarcation of hinterlands was based on aggregate port throughput only. As a result, none of these studies has allowed a clear understanding of the characteristics of shared hinterlands. To address such shortcomings, the membership degree method and the Huff model have been used here to delineate, if at all possible, the hinterlands of China's 20 major foreign trade container ports. The results reveal the existence of fierce port competition for China's hinterlands, with the hinterland characteristics of different types of ports varying in scope and spatial continuity. Our research has important policy implications for central- and local governments, as well as port authorities. In short, ways to strengthen inter-provincial port cooperation should be a top priority to policymakers going forward. Due to the unavoidable onslaught of diseconomies of scale in cargohandling, international hub ports should focus on the development of strong, port-centric maritime clusters and international shipping centres. Regional hub ports should coordinate better their relationship with international hubs and feeder ports. Finally, the latter ports need to plan their development cautiously in order to avoid unfettered and wasteful expansion.
In the competitive environment of liner shipping, the ability to nimbly adjust shipping capacity to demand could mean the difference between a thriving shipping operation and one that will most likely fail. How quickly and effectively... more
In the competitive environment of liner shipping, the ability to nimbly adjust shipping capacity to demand could mean the difference between a thriving shipping operation and one that will most likely fail. How quickly and effectively carriers adjust their capacity may depend on how their expectations regarding trade volumes and freight rates are formed. We find that if adaptive expectations prevail in the decision process, capacity deployment may suffer some degree of inertia but, compared to expectations that are formed rationally, capacity would be be relatively stable. On the other hand, if carrier expectations are rational, capacity deployment might be more likely to align closer and faster with demand. We seek to empirically test whether carriers’ expectations of demand, aiming at deploying the right amount of capacity, can be characterized as adaptive or rational. We find that a) in most cases, adaptive expectations is the paradigm in container shipping; b) the way expectatio...
Abstract Considering the impacts of low port distribution (i.e., concentration of ports in a certain geographic area) and liner network development, we study hub port locations, current and future, along the West African coastline. We... more
Abstract Considering the impacts of low port distribution (i.e., concentration of ports in a certain geographic area) and liner network development, we study hub port locations, current and future, along the West African coastline. We feel that the relationship between hub port locations and liner network structures should be further researched. To that effect, we apply our modelling to the Asia - West Africa trade, in view of China's increasing economic involvement in the development of the African continent. In formulating our model, we specify the relationship between the path choice behavior of shippers, the liner network and the hub port location. To do this, we split the problem into two associated subproblems: a liner network design with a non-discrete calling port set (LNDNS) and the shippers' path choice problem (SPCP). In contrast to conventional discrete location models, our method relaxes the usual constraint requiring hub port alternatives be listed a priori. This allows us to consider the development of new port infrastructure, in green-field areas, along the West African coast. We believe such an approach—i.e., the identification of ‘greenfield’ sites—could be of particular interest to infrastructure financiers, such as the World Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, as a port policy blueprint, for regions such as West Africa, characterized by low port density. Our results show that Abidjan, Cotonou and Lome, located in the central part of the West African coastline, are more important for the China–West Africa container transport system, and could potentially be selected as hub ports. Currently, the western and southern parts of the coastline do not appear to be suitable for this function; ports there, however, could be developed to important feeder ports in the future, in a pendulum type of network design, as we demonstrate. Interestingly, we also find that, as the number of routes increases, the structure of the liner network changes from circular to hub-and-spoke. Finally, the networks we design and present in our model show how shippers' path choice behavior affects liner network design and the location of hub ports.
This 28-chapter volume brings together academics and practitioners to provide a comprehensive legal, economic and political analysis of the Belt and Road (BRI) initiative that has emerged since 2013 as a key feature of China’s... more
This 28-chapter volume brings together academics and practitioners to provide a comprehensive legal, economic and political analysis of the Belt and Road (BRI) initiative that has emerged since 2013 as a key feature of China’s international economic policy. The contributions offer a fundamentally novel approach towards international trade, investment and global governance in an unsettled time of shifting geopolitics when many institutions developed in the West are being called into question. The book covers a broad range of BRI-related international economic law and policy issues, including trade facilitation and connectivity, economics and geopolitics of new trade routes, foreign direct investment law, bilateral investment treaties, free trade agreements, financing of infrastructure, development aid, and international dispute resolution, and regional economic integration.
The chapter draws considerably on Haralambides and Acciaro (2013; 2015) and Haralambides (2014). The Appendix is an attempt to develop a brief case-study on port policy, related to the discourse of the present paper, and based on my... more
The chapter draws considerably on Haralambides and Acciaro (2013; 2015) and Haralambides (2014). The Appendix is an attempt to develop a brief case-study on port policy, related to the discourse of the present paper, and based on my recent experiences as President of the Italian port of Brindisi (2011-2015).
Shipping is a global service industry that by general acknowledgement provides the lifeline of international trade. Suffice it to say that, due to the morphology of our planet, 90% of international trade takes place by sea. Technological... more
Shipping is a global service industry that by general acknowledgement provides the lifeline of international trade. Suffice it to say that, due to the morphology of our planet, 90% of international trade takes place by sea. Technological developments in ship design and construction, and the ensuing economies of scale of larger ships, have also promoted trade–particularly those of developing countries–by making economical the transportation of goods over long distances. This has expanded markets for raw materials and final products and ...
In this paper the authors deal with the scheduling of inbound and outbound trucks to the available inbound and outbound doors at a cross dock facility. They assume that all trucks served at the facility need to meet several deadlines for... more
In this paper the authors deal with the scheduling of inbound and outbound trucks to the available inbound and outbound doors at a cross dock facility. They assume that all trucks served at the facility need to meet several deadlines for deliveries and pick-ups and thus request a departure time window from the facility, penalizing the facility operator, on a unit of time basis, if that deadline is not met. To solve the resulting problem with reasonable computational effort, a memetic algorithm is developed and a number of computational examples show the efficiency of the proposed solution algorithm and the advantages of scheduling inbound and outbound trucks simultaneously, as opposed to sequentially.
... proposal. The opposition of the German government and of the chancellor was so stiff that they forced the Elysee to modify the initial pro-posal substantially. ... Germany. This has resulted in a cooling of Franco-German relations. ...

And 118 more

Another prediction come true. When the discussions about NOL taking over Hapag Lloyd were taking place, I had calculated (and published) that Hapag Lloyd was asking two billion dollars over its market value at those market conditions.... more
Another prediction come true. When the discussions about NOL taking over Hapag Lloyd were taking place, I had calculated (and published) that Hapag Lloyd was asking two billion dollars over its market value at those market conditions. Obviously, the deal never took place, as predicted.
...The removal of ‘some’ self-regulatory discipline from such an international industry (where no national competition law could obviously apply) will lead to more consolidation; less synergy and economies of scope, thus higher slot... more
...The removal of ‘some’ self-regulatory discipline from such an international industry (where no national competition law could obviously apply) will lead to more consolidation; less synergy and economies of scope, thus higher slot costs; service unreliability; limited global networks (cherry picking) and connectivity; higher inventory costs; threat to our Just-in-Time logistical systems, higher prices and jeopardized export competitiveness.  At the end of the day, it will again be the European citizen that will have to foot the bill of the Commission’s experimentations on such and important sector...
...The total network of coastal connections of the country is indicatively decided by the Minister, with a validity of two years. The criteria of this network design are political and not economic, as regards “who” should be connected and... more
...The total network of coastal connections of the country is indicatively decided by the Minister, with a validity of two years. The criteria of this network design are political and not economic, as regards “who” should be connected and with what “frequency”. As a result, 65% of connections with “minimum frequency requirements” are uneconomical for the private sector, and are therefore executed through state subsidies which amount to 80 million euros per year. The amount of these subsidies is rather high, particularly if one takes into account that the ships performing public service obligations (PSO-i.e. agones grammes) are fairly old and of inferior quality. Quality criteria do not enter into the PSO contracts...
...No matter how well we prepare you in such things as finance and marketing, you will only be able to scratch the surface of the matter if you are unable to understand that what a manager calls, for instance, "market segmentation" is... more
...No matter how well we prepare you in such things as finance and marketing, you will only be able to scratch the surface of the matter if you are unable to understand that what a manager calls, for instance, "market segmentation" is nothing more than what an economist would call "price discrimination"...
Dear followers, colleagues, past and present students: Although I do not intend to cancel this profile and I will do my best to keep it updated, the emphasis these days is shifting towards “Research Gate”. If still interested in my work,... more
Dear followers, colleagues, past and present students:

Although I do not intend to cancel this profile and I will do my best to keep it updated, the emphasis these days is shifting towards “Research Gate”. If still interested in my work, I would like to invite you to join me there, and follow my profile at:
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hercules_Haralambides.

I hope to meet you all there.
Regards,
Hercules
Research Interests:
AGENDA One-Belt-One-Road and Mediterranean Ports Liner Shipping: Port-to-Port or Door-to-Door? The Response of Ports to Concentration in Shipping The Italian Port Reform Masterplanning and City-Port Relationships The EU Port Regulation... more
AGENDA

One-Belt-One-Road and Mediterranean Ports
Liner Shipping: Port-to-Port or Door-to-Door?
The Response of Ports to Concentration in Shipping
The Italian Port Reform
Masterplanning and City-Port Relationships
The EU Port Regulation
Conclusions

The paper/presentation is uploaded on my ResearchGate profile. It will be uploaded on Academia later on.
Research Interests:
OBOR is a US$ 1 trillion plan with an estimated economic multiplier of 2.5. Since the plan was announced three years ago, only 5% of this budget has been spent. There are as many plans as interested countries and China is talking to all... more
OBOR is a US$ 1 trillion plan with an estimated economic multiplier of 2.5. Since the plan was announced three years ago, only 5% of this budget has been spent. There are as many plans as interested countries and China is talking to all of them. 10,000 articles have been written on the subject, but NDRC has retained only 100! Nothing is decided yet, and may analysts tend to see OBOR as a geopolitical “carrot and stick”, something similar to “Marshall Plan”.

China is not investing only in African infrastructure but it transfers manufacturing activity there. By the end of 2015: 128 industrial projects in Nigeria, 80 in Ethiopia, 77 in South Africa, 48 in Tanzania and 44 in Ghana. It seems developing Africa is much easier than developing China’s own northwestern territories.

With investments in Australia (Darwin) and a continuing interest in the Nicaraguan canal, China will soon be looking at the Pacific Ocean, expanding OBOR to a global, “around-the-world” network, in competition to TPP. What are the prospects of the Panama Canal, in view also of competition from the Suez Canal? To my view, not very promising.

Russia is squeezed from both sides: USA/NATO from the west / China-Eurasia-OBOR from the east. Russia’s response: its own ‘OBOR’: The North-South Transport Corridor.

Both Russia and China intend to develop their own currencies into reserve, clearing ones, away from the dollar and a crisis-prone, risky and overburdened western financial system. China in particular has created a currency clearing house in Qatar while Russia has an “oil for goods” deal with Iran. The latter country too has recently entered into a “rail for oil” barter deal with Turkey.
Research Interests:
In 2013, and after two unsuccessful attempts since 2001, The European Commission introduced a new draft regulation, yet to be voted and enacted by the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament. This policy intervention aims to... more
In 2013, and after two unsuccessful attempts since 2001, The European Commission introduced a new draft regulation, yet to be voted and enacted by the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament. This policy intervention aims to regulate two long-outstanding problems of the European port industry:

1. Liberalization of the markets for port services
2.Transparency and operational and financial autonomy of ports
From the poorly managed public infrastructures of the previous century, ports have evolved into high-tech enterprises and crucial nodes in global supply chains of production, transport and distribution. Containerization has been... more
From the poorly managed public infrastructures of the previous century, ports have evolved into high-tech enterprises and crucial nodes in global supply chains of production, transport and distribution. Containerization has been instrumental in this transformation, together with the impressive and seemingly unstoppable gigantism in containership sizes. The former ‘city-ports’ –facilities created inside or at the confines of river cities—are no longer sufficient to handle the requirements of modern ships, and ports, in need of more space and water depths, have moved downstream, in river estuaries, towards the open sea. Pressure on ports to continue upgrading their infrastructure is mounting, necessitated by increasing port competition and the requirements of mega-ships. Limits to growth are, however, visible, and equally visible is the need for a more balanced approach between the benefits of mega-ships and the costs these ships impose on the planning, development and operations of ports.