NOAA SPC Issues A `High Risk' For Severe Weather in Oklahoma/Kansas

 

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The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare `high risk' for severe weather across much of Oklahoma, and parts of Kansas, for later today. 

It has already been an active spring for severe storms (see below), with nearly 600 tornadoes reported since the 1st of the year. May is traditionally one of the strongest months for tornadoes, and so people in the warned areas should take these forecasts seriously.

For most Americans, a severe weather event is their biggest regional disaster threat; hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, blizzards, Derechos, and ice storms affect millions of people every year. Having a good (and well rehearsed) family emergency plan is essential for any disaster.

It is important for your plan to include emergency meeting places, out-of-state contacts, and individual wallet information cards - before you need it (see #NatlPrep : Create A Family Communications Plan).

Together with adequate emergency supplies, a solid first aid kit, emergency alerts on your cell phone or an emergency battery operated NWS Weather Radio, these steps will go a long ways to protecting you, and your family, from a wide variety of potential disasters.

As a Floridian I am more than aware that we are only weeks from the start of the Atlantic Hurricane season - and while the worst storms aren't expected until later in the summer - I'm already reviewing my hurricane preps. 

Given the aggressive forecasts we've seen for the hurricane season ahead, anyone living within a couple of hundred miles of the Gulf or Atlantic coast should be doing the same. 

From Escambia County Hurricane Preparedness Information

USGS Seismic Hazard Map Update: 75% of Americans At Risk Of Experiencing A Damaging Earthquake

 

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In 2006 the USGS calculated that earthquakes posed a significant risk to 75 million Americans living in 39 States. Since then, populations have changed and/or shifted, ongoing research has uncovered new seismic risks, and geologists have a better understanding of the extent of ground shaking from these quakes.

A 2015 study, published in the journal Earthquake Spectra, nearly doubled – to 143 million - the number of Americans who live or work in areas susceptible to potentially damaging ground shaking (see USGS: Nearly Half Of U.S. Population Exposed to Potentially Damaging Earthquakes).

Last week the USGS unveiled a new seismic risk map (see above), and increased the percentage of  the population at risk of experiencing a damaging earthquake to nearly 75% (roughly 240 million people).

USGS scientists and our partners recently revealed the latest National Seismic Hazard Model, showing that nearly 75% of the United States could experience a damaging earthquake, emphasizing seismic hazards span a significant part of the country.

GOLDEN, Colo. – Nearly 75 percent of the U.S. could experience damaging earthquake shaking, according to a recent U.S. Geological Survey-led team of 50+ scientists and engineers.

This was one of several key findings from the latest USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). The model was used to create a color-coded map that pinpoints where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur based on insights from seismic studies, historical geologic data, and the latest data-collection technologies.

The congressionally requested NSHM update was created as an essential tool to help engineers and others mitigate how earthquakes affect the most vulnerable communities by showing likely earthquake locations and how much shaking they might produce. New tools and technology identified nearly 500 additional faults that could produce a damaging quake, showcasing the evolving landscape of earthquake research.

“This was a massive, multi-year collaborative effort between federal, state and local governments and the private sector,” said Mark Petersen, USGS geophysicist and lead author of the study. “The new seismic hazard model represents a touchstone achievement for enhancing public safety.”

The latest iteration, the first 50-state comprehensive assessment, was updated from previous versions published in 2018 (conterminous U.S.), 2007 (Alaska) and 1998 (Hawaii).

Noteworthy changes in the new model show the possibility of more damaging earthquakes along the central and northeastern Atlantic Coastal corridor, including in the cities of Washington D.C., Philadelphia, New York and Boston. In addition, there is a chance for greater shaking in the seismically active regions of California and Alaska. The new model also characterizes Hawai‘i as having greater potential for shaking because of observations from recent volcanic eruptions and seismic unrest on the islands.

"Earthquakes are difficult to forecast but we’ve made great strides with this new model," said Petersen. "The update includes more faults, better-characterized land surfaces, and computational advancements in modeling that provide the most detailed view ever of the earthquake risks we face."

Key findings from the updated seismic hazard model include:

• Risk to People: Nearly 75% of the U.S. could experience potentially damaging earthquakes and intense ground shaking, putting hundreds of millions of people at risk.
• Widespread Hazard: 37 U.S. states have experienced earthquakes exceeding magnitude 5 during the last 200 years, highlighting a long history of seismic activity across this country.
• Structural Implications: The updated model will inform the future of building and structural design, offering critical insights for architects, engineers, and policymakers on how structures are planned and constructed across the U.S.
• Unified Approach: This marks the first National Seismic Hazard Model to encompass all 50 states simultaneously, reflecting a massive collaborative effort with federal, state, and local partners.
• Not a Prediction: No one can predict earthquakes. However, by investigating faults and past quakes, scientists can better assess the likelihood of future earthquakes and how intense their shaking might be.

To read the full findings of the scientific assessment, which was published in the journal Earthquake Spectra, please visit: https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231215428

While most people immediately think of California and the `big one', the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), the Pacific Northwest (Cascadia fault), coastal South Carolina, Alaska and Hawaii, and even New York City and parts of New England are at risk of seeing significant seismic activity.

Additionally, there are nearly a dozen `very high risk' volcanoes in the continental US (4 in Washington, 4 in Oregon & 3 in California), along dozens of `lesser' threats. While earthquake damage is generally localized, volcanic eruptions can affect property and populations thousands of miles away.

Over the past 100+ years the United States (excluding Alaska & Hawaii) has experienced a `seismic drought', with relatively few big quakes or volcanic eruptions.  As a result, most people assume the next `big one' won't happen in their lifetimes. 

In 2019 the SSA (Seismological Society of America) held their annual meeting, and a study was presented that concludes that California's recent lack of major quakes has no precedent in the past 1000 years.

California, they announced, has been in an earthquake drought for the past 100 years. One, that the SSA warns, is unlikely to continue. In a news release they wrote: 

They agree that the next 100 years of California earthquakes along these faults could be a busy one. “If our work is correct,” Scharer and Biasi note, the next century isn’t going to be like the last one, but could more like the century that ended in 1918.”

All reasons why I blog on the importance of earthquake preparedness every September for National Preparedness month (see #Natlprep: You Don't Have To Live In A High-Risk Seismic Zone To Need An Earthquake Plan).

For more on earthquake preparedness, both here in the United States, and around the world, you may wish to revisit:

Japan's Earthquake Preparedness Messaging - Tokyo's X Day

USGS: Induced Earthquakes Raise Chances of Damaging Shaking in 2016

California Quakes : Concrete Concerns

Estimating The Economic Impact Of A San Andreas Quake

USGS/OGS Joint Statement On Increased Earthquake Threat To Oklahoma

#NatlPrep: Emergency Preparedness For Kids & Teens

 

Ready.gov Build A Kit 

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Note: September is National Preparedness Month. Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep #BeReady or #PrepMonth hashtags.

This month, as part of #NPM23, I’ll be rerunning some updated preparedness essays, along with some new ones

As much as we want to protect our kids, in a disaster everyone is affected, including children.  In their latest update on the historic flood in Libya - which has killed thousands - UNICEF reports:

• Children are among the most affected, at heightened risk of public health threats and mental health and psychosocial disorders.

• Out of 43,059 displaced by the floods according to IOM-DTM, UNICEF estimates that at least 17,000 may be children.

While we may try to tell ourselves that disasters of this magnitude can't happen here, history would suggest otherwise (e.g. 1812 New Madrid Earthquake, 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, 1992 Hurricane Andrew, etc.). 

And besides, it doesn't take a mega-disaster to put you, and your family, at risk. A moderate to-large earthquake, flood, wildfire, or hurricane will do. 

No matter where you live, if you've got kids, the odds they will have some sort of brush with an emergency or disaster over the next decade. Hopefully it will happen when they are with their parents, but it could happen at school, or other times when they are away from home.

As much as we'd like to spare our children the stress, grief, and physical dangers from disasters and other crises, we are all passengers on a violent and often unpredictable planet. And sometimes (warning: anachronistic cultural reference ahead), it provides us with an E-Ticket ride.

Many of us of an advanced age got our early initiation into preparedness in the Boy or Girl Scouts, where we learned basic first aid, rudimentary wilderness survival, and what to do in an emergency.  

For modern kids - who are more accustomed to playing video games than playing in the woods - that is less likely to be the case.  

I'm pushing 70, which makes me a the product of the cold war; the Cuban Missile Crisis, incessant duck and cover drills, weekly CONELRAD alerts on TV, and films like Survival Under Atomic Attack and `Bert the turtle’ PSAs in elementary school.

It was, admittedly, not the best way for a child to learn about emergency preparedness. But it was a different time, and for us - this was our `normal'.  

Childhood trauma aside, all of this provided me with the basic skills and confidence I'd need to become  an EMT (age 18) and a Paramedic (age 20). Not such a bad result, actually.  

Today, while many threats remain, parents appear reticent to discuss emergency preparedness with their children. Fortunately, disaster preparedness – particularly for younger kids - has come a long way from the `bad old days’ of the cold war.

30 Second PSA

Ready.gov provides age appropriate tools for parents and teachers to teach emergency preparedness to both kids and teenagers.



READY.GOV

While most parents want to protect their kids from undo worry - when a disaster threatens, it threatens all of us – regardless of our age.

Helping kids to understand more about emergency preparedness and community resilience will help them cope (and perhaps, even help) in the event they, or their community, are caught up in a disaster.

I strongly urge parents to find and teach age-appropriate preparedness skills to their children. To include them in family `emergency drills' and discussions, and to make sure they know where to go (a friend, a neighbor, the local fire house etc.) if they should become separated from the family during an emergency.

No one can say when or where the next disaster will strike.  But the advantage - no matter what their age - goes to those best prepared. 

For more resources for teaching kids about emergency preparedness, you may wish to visit:

Teaching Kids About Emergency Preparedness - American Red Cross

Children In Disasters: Kids and Families -CDC

Emergency Preparedness for Children - Canadian Govt.

#Natlprep: You Don't Have To Live In A High-Risk Seismic Zone To Need An Earthquake Plan

Note: September is National Preparedness Month. Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep #BeReady or #PrepMonth hashtags.

This month, as part of #NPM23, I’ll be rerunning some updated preparedness essays, along with some new ones

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Based on the GSHAP map of global seismic hazard zones (above), few people living in North Africa would have expected a devastating earthquake to strike Morocco last week, killing and injuring thousands of people.  While the levels of risk may vary, much of the world's population live in a seismically active area. 

In 2006 the USGS calculated that earthquakes posed a significant risk to 75 million Americans living in 39 States. 

Since then, populations have changed and/or shifted and ongoing research has uncovered new seismic risks (see USGS: Updated U.S. Seismic Risk Hazard Maps), providing geologists with a better understanding of the extent of ground shaking from these quakes.

A new study, published in 2015 in the journal Earthquake Spectra, nearly doubled – to 143 million - the number of Americans who live or work in areas susceptible to potentially damaging ground shaking.

2014 Update To The USGS Seismic Risk Map

The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), the Pacific Northwest (Cascadia fault), coastal South Carolina, Alaska and Hawaii,  and even New York City and parts of New England are at risk of seeing significant seismic activity.

The Pacific, Gulf, and Atlantic coastlines are also susceptible to tsunamis generated from from both local and distant earthquakes (see East Coast Tsunami Threats). For Americans, there is better than a 50-50 chance that they live in an area that is at risk of some seismically induced disaster.

Additionally, there are nearly a dozen `very high risk' volcanoes in the continental US (4 in Washington, 4 in Oregon & 3 in California), along dozens of `lesser' threats. While earthquake damage is generally localized, volcanic eruptions can affect property and populations thousands of miles away.

Over the past 100+ years the United States (excluding Alaska & Hawaii) has experienced a `seismic drought', with relatively few big quakes or volcanic eruptions.  As a result, most people assume the next `big one' won't happen in their lifetimes. 

In 2019 the SSA (Seismological Society of America) held their annual meeting, and a study was presented that concludes that California's recent lack of major quakes has no precedent in the past 1000 years.

The Current Unlikely Earthquake Hiatus at California’s Transform Boundary Paleoseismic Sites

Glenn P. Biasi, Katherine M. Scharer

Seismological Research Letters (2019) 90 (3): 1168-1176.
https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180244

ABSTRACT

Paleoseismic and historical earthquake records used to quantify earthquake recurrence rates can also be used to test the likelihood of seismically quiescent periods. At principal paleoseismic sites in California on the San Andreas, San Jacinto, Elsinore, and Hayward faults, no ground‐rupturing earthquake has occurred in the last 100 yr, yet this interval is about three times the average interearthquake period for the ensemble of sites.

(Continue . . . )

California, they announced, has been in an earthquake drought for the past 100 years. One, that the SSA warns, is unlikely to continue. In a news release they wrote:

 

They agree that the next 100 years of California earthquakes along these faults could be a busy one. “If our work is correct,” Scharer and Biasi note, the next century isn’t going to be like the last one, but could more like the century that ended in 1918.”

While the `big one' in California (see Dr. Lucy Jones: `Imagine America Without Los Angeles’) is perhaps the most anticipated major disaster of all time, there are other areas in the continental United States equally ripe for a big quake.

• FEMA and the U.S. government conducted a huge drill seven years ago (see FEMA: Cascadia Rising 2016) involving 20,000 people from both the United States and Canada, in order to prepare for a catastrophic M9.0 quake & tsunami off the Pacific coast.

• And in 2011 – during the bicentennial of the four great New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-12 –FEMA and other federal agencies mounted the largest National Level Exercise (NLE) to that date, revolving around a catastrophic earthquake occurring in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) that would involve eight Central U.S. States.

• Perhaps least appreciated is the seismic history of South Carolina, which in 1886 was struck by an (Est. 7.3-7.6 magnitude) quake that devastated much of Charleston, South Carolina. Shaking was felt as far north as Boston, south to Cuba, and west as far as New Orleans.

Even if you don't live or work in the shake zone of one of the events, should a great quake strike any one of them, the economic and societal impacts could easily spread far beyond the damaged area.

Imagine an M8.0 New Madrid quake collapsing major bridges that cross the Mississippi river, buckling the Midwest's railroad tracks and interstate highways, and taking out the dozens of critical natural gas pipelines that snake through that region.

A quake of that size could impact the transportation of food, the delivery of energy (power, gas, coal, etc.), the national power grid, and the nation's economy in ways we can only partially imagine.

While we can't prevent the next big quake from happening, we can prepare for it.

Working to improve earthquake awareness, preparation, and safety is Shakeout.org, which promotes yearly earthquake drills and education around the country (see A Whole Lotta Shakeouts Going On).

The third Thursday in October (Oct 19th in 2023) is International Shakeout Day, when dozens of states and countries practice earthquake safety. If you live in or near one of these seismically active areas, I would strongly urge you, your family, and your employees take part in these yearly drills.

But after the shaking stops, you'll have to find ways to cope with the aftermath.

While the government will send help, you could find yourself pretty much on your own for several days and living in less than comfortable conditions for weeks.

For starters - and as a bare minimum - every household should have a disaster plan, a good first aid kit (and the knowledge to use it), an emergency battery operated NWS weather radio, and emergency supplies to last a minimum of 72 hours during a disaster.

While 72 hours is an admirable start, I wouldn't feel comfortable with it. Here in the United States many agencies and organizations recommend that households work towards having a 10-to-14 day supply of food, water, and emergency supplies on hand. 

As the (above) graphic illustrates (see #NatlPrep: FEMA National Household Preparedness Survey), while we've seen some improvement over past few years, Americans still have a long way to go if we are to cultivate a culture of preparedness.

For more on earthquake preparedness, both here in the United States, and around the world, you may wish to revisit:

Japan's Earthquake Preparedness Messaging - Tokyo's X Day

USGS: Induced Earthquakes Raise Chances of Damaging Shaking in 2016

California Quakes : Concrete Concerns

Estimating The Economic Impact Of A San Andreas Quake

USGS/OGS Joint Statement On Increased Earthquake Threat To Oklahoma

#Natlprep: Cultivating Preparedness - One Gift At A Time

 

Note: September is National Preparedness Month. Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep #BeReady or #PrepMonth hashtags.

This month, as part of #NPM23, I’ll be rerunning some updated preparedness essays, along with some new ones

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For most people - whether it is due to an earthquake, a flood, or a hurricane - regional disasters can often boil down to days or weeks of unscheduled camping in your home, in a community shelter, or possibly in your backyard. 

The power may be out, or intermittent. Potable water my be cut off.  And many of the luxuries of modern living we take for granted - air conditioning, central heat, hot showers, and the Internet - may all be temporarily unavailable.

My `standard advice' is that everyone should strive to have the ability to withstand 7 to 10 days without power and water. Recommended preps include:

• A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
• A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
• Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
• A way to provide light when the grid is down.
• A way to cook safely without electricity
• A way to purify or filter water
• A way to handle basic sanitation and waste disposal. 
• A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
• A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
• An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
• Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
• A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout

Because all of this takes a certain amount of preparation - 16 years ago I wrote a blog called Hickory Farms Will Hate Me For This - where I began promoting the idea that instead of gifting cheese platters, fruitcakes and ugly sweaters to friends and family, we should all be giving preparedness gifts for holidays, birthdays, and anniversaries.

I often find these gifts on sale in discount stores, bargain basements, and flea markets, and stock up whenever I come across a good deal. But it should be stressed that quality counts. You don't want your life to depend on a Dollar Store pocket knife.

Sometimes I make the gifts myself, as when several years back I cobbled together some first aid kits, and distributed them to a number of friends and relatives. You can either put one together yourself, or purchase one already assembled.



There is no substitute for having a well stocked first aid kit when you really need one. Having a kit isn't enough, however.  Knowing what to do in an emergency is equally important. 

Luckily there are a number of good first aid books available,including:



When the lights go out, nothing beats having a couple of good LED flashlights or lanterns. And each year they get brighter, and cheaper. Most run between $5 and $10, and that beats the heck out of cursing the darkness.




High on the list of things to have is a way to make water potable.

Although (unscented) bleach will work, it requires careful measuring, and imparts a taste to the water many dislike. An option that has gotten a lot less expensive in recent years are personal filtration systems, like the LifeStraw ®.



At just 2 ounces, this personal water filter will reportedly filter 1000 liters down to .2 microns. Not bad for around $20. I've also added the Sawyer Mini-Filter to my preps, again about $20.


Speaking of water, having a way to store enough water for three days (1 gal/person/day) is essential. A family of 4 will need at least 12 gallons for 72 hours. Personally, I keep enough on hand for a couple of weeks.

While there are plenty of `free options’ – like rinsed and recycled 2-liter plastic soda bottles or other food-safe plastic jugs – you can also buy collapsible 5 gallon containers.

A couple of years ago I bought several 5 gal. buckets (with lids) from a home improvement store, along with mylar bags and oxygen absorbers from Amazon, and put together some long-term food storage buckets for friends.



Cost per bucket? About $30. But enough food to keep two people going for ten days or more in an emergency. I keep a couple on hand (one for me, one for the cat), myself.

A few years back, however, I added some dehydrated/freeze dried foods (in #10 cans) to this culinary category, as they only require hot or boiling water to prepare.

While considerably pricier than buying staples like Ramen, rice and beans, they are more convenient. With a propane or butane camp stove or even a single burner Propane burner (see below) and a couple of 1 pound gas cylinders (about $5 each) and you can cook for a week or longer. Typically, a 1lb cylinder proves 1.5 to 2.0 hours of cooking.



Every home should have a battery operated radio (with NWS weather band), yet many do not. Some are available with crank or solar charging. In any event, you'll want something which can pick up the NOAA NWS Emergency Broadcaster in your region.




As I described earlier this summer (see My Upgraded Solar Power System (2023 Edition), if you are even a little bit handy, it is a relatively easy cobble together a simple solar charging system.



No, you won’t keep the A/C or refrigerator running on a budget system, but you can keep your LED lantern batteries, cell phone, CPAP, iPod or iPad, or notebook computer running. Add a $20 inverter (converts 12 volt battery power to 120v AC), and you can do even more.




I've also purchased (for myself, and some components for friends) some of `off-the-shelf' solar items, including fans, LED lanterns, several USB battery packs, and a 21 watt Solar panel (see Some Simple Off-The-Shelf Solar Solutions For Power Outages)..

While my primary concern in Florida is staying cool during a summer power outage, in colder climes, staying warm can be a major concern. Sleeping bags, pop-up tents (that can be used indoors or out), and propane or kerosene heaters can be lifesaving.

Something as simple, and as utilitarian, as a multi-function `Swiss’ army knife, a`Multi-tool’, a `plug in' auto 12 volt USB charger (see below), or even multi packs of AA or AAA batteries, makes a great preparedness gift.



Often forgotten, but safety goggles, a box or two of vinyl or nitrile gloves, and a box of surgical face masks (or preferably N95 masks) should be in everyone’s emergency kit as well - whether you're dealing with a nasty flu season, COVID-19, or smoke from wildfires.




And while not necessarily lifesaving, having a way to occupy your mind (or your kids) during an extended grid down situation can help maintain your sanity. Books, board games, and having good old-fashioned conversations are undoubtedly the best, but when they run dry having a low drain battery powered MP3 player, or a battery run DVD player, can seem like a lifesaver.




Admittedly, many of the items listed above are needed more for comfort and convenience, than for survival. But the physical and psychological impacts stemming from the hardships following a disaster are quite real (see Post-Disaster Sequelae), and a modicum of creature comforts can go a long ways towards mitigating their effects.

FEMA, Ready.gov and a myriad of other state and national entities know the risks we face, and would like to see Americans adopt and embrace a culture of preparedness.

And we can do that for ourselves, our families, and our friends.

One gift at a time.

National Preparedness Month 2023 Kicks Off

Note: This is the first day of National Preparedness Month. Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep #BeReady or #PrepMonth hashtags.

This month, as part of NPM23, I’ll be rerunning some updated preparedness essays, along with some new ones.

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September is National Preparedness month here in the United States, but as this week's Hurricane Idalia demonstrates, preparedness should be a year-round goal. Right now more than 100,000 households in Florida and George are without electrical power, and we are only halfway through what could be a busy hurricane season.

Last month, I published articles on My Upgraded Solar Power System (2023 Edition) and the UK 2023 Edition Of the National Risk Register For Civil Emergencies), but during September preparedness takes center stage.

As a former paramedic, a cruising and live-aboard sailor for 15 years (see photo below), and someone who spent a decade going `back to the land' in the backwoods of Missouri, the fact that I'm still around after 69 knockabout years is a testament to the value of preparedness.


1987 Before I `swallowed the anchor'

More than once having a well-stocked first aid kit, emergency back-up systems in place, a full pantry, or an emergency plan has served me well in an crisis. When I sailed, I carried a life raft/dinghy - aptly named `Plan B' - which was mostly used for rowing ashore to buy beer, but it was also there in case `plan A' was no longer a viable option.

For more than 50 years I've carried a first aid kit in my car (and in my boat, and home), and while I haven't needed it often, when I have needed it, I've really, really, needed it.

We're not talking survivalism.  I'm not preparing to survive an asteroid strike, a Yellowstone eruption, WWIII or the zombie apocalypse.

But if the power (and water) goes out for a few days, or store shelves are emptied (as happens with every hurricane threat) for a week or more, I'm in pretty good shape. I have stored food, water, a month's extra supply of my Rx meds, and a small solar power generation system. 

For the vast majority of us who embrace the preparedness lifestyle - it is the far more common localized disaster that spurs us on:

. .. hurricanes, tornadoes, ice storms, blizzards, earthquakes, floods (and yes, even a pandemic) . . . along with even more limited emergencies like house fires, car accidents, or personal accident and injury.

 

The goal of #NatlPrep is to foster a culture of national preparedness, and to encourage everyone to plan and be prepared to deal with an event where they can go at least 72 hours without electricity, running water, local services, or access to a supermarket.

These are, of course, minimum goals.

Disruptions that follow hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, floods, earthquakes and other natural disasters can potentially last for days or even weeks, and so – if you are able to do so - being prepared for 10 days to 2 weeks makes a good deal of sense (see When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough).

But for my money, the most important prep is having – and being – a `disaster buddy’.In NPM14: In an Emergency, Who Are You Going To Call?, I wrote that a `Disaster Buddy’ is simply someone you have prearranged that you can call on during a crisis, and who in turn, can call on you if they need help. And the more `disaster buddies’ you have in your personal network, the more options you will have in an emergency.

Over the next month I'll be devoting considerable blog time and space to the topic of disaster preparedness. Along the way we'll look at some threats you and your family may not have considered.

I hope you’ll take some time during the coming weeks to think about how to make your family, business, or community better prepared to deal with the next disaster, and then act on it.

And that you’ll encourage others to do the same.

NOAA SPC: Large Swath Of Central US Under Moderate Risk Of Severe Storms

 

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Later today portions of 7 states (Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Mississippi) will find themselves under a moderate risk of severe storms, including tornadoes, less than a week after an F4 tornado tore through northern Mississippi claiming 25 lives. 

The latest forecast advisory from the NWS SPC reads:

There have already been more than 310 confirmed tornadoes across the United States in the first 3 months of 2023, and April and May - often the most active months - still lie ahead. 

I you haven't already, you should activate weather alerts on your cell phone, and have a NSWS weather radio as a backup.  If you are in a warned area, take it seriously, and seek shelter immediately. 

For most Americans, a severe weather event is their biggest regional disaster threat; hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, blizzards, Derechos, and ice storms affect millions of people every year. Having a good (and well rehearsed) family emergency plan is essential for any disaster.

It is important for your plan to include emergency meeting places, out-of-state contacts, and individual wallet information cards - before you need it (see #NatlPrep : Create A Family Communications Plan).

Together with adequate emergency supplies, a solid first aid kit, and an emergency battery operated NWS Weather Radio, these steps will go a long ways to protecting you, and your family, from a wide variety of potential disasters.

As a Floridian I am more than aware that we are only 2 months from the start of the Atlantic Hurricane season - and while the worst storms aren't expected until later in the summer - I'll review my hurricane preps in May.  

Before I need them. 

For some recent preparedness blogs to help get you prepared for whatever may come, you may wish to revisit:

Hurricane Prep: Some Simple Off-The-Shelf Solar Solutions For Power Outages

#Natlprep: Cultivating Preparedness - One Gift At A Time

When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

My New (And Improved) Solar Battery Project (for CPAP)

Because it's not a matter of `if' another disaster will strike . .  . 

It's only a matter of where, when, and how bad. 

 

SPC: Deep South Under Severe Weather Threat Today

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Following an unusually active January and February (see above), tornado reports across the United States have declined dramatically (and unexpectedly) during the month of March. 

While a welcomed break, that quiet pattern may be about to change, as a powerful storm system moves across the deep south tonight. 

NOAA's SPC (Storms Prediction Center) has issued a moderate (4 of 5) risk of severe weather today across parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, with lesser risks forecast into Tennessee and the boot heel of Missouri. 

Most years roughly half of all U.S. tornadoes occur during March-April-May, as winter gives way to spring and summer.  During the summer, the focus for severe weather moves away from the south (Dixie Alley), and into the mid west (aka `Tornado Alley'). 

For most Americans, severe weather event is their biggest regional disaster threat; hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, blizzards, Derechos, and ice storms affect millions of people every year. Having a good (and well rehearsed) family emergency plan is essential for any disaster.

It is important for your plan to include emergency meeting places, out-of-state contacts, and individual wallet information cards - before you need it (see #NatlPrep : Create A Family Communications Plan).

Together with adequate emergency supplies, a solid first aid kit, and an emergency battery operated NWS Weather Radio, these steps will go a long ways to protecting you, and your family, from a wide variety of potential disasters.

Because it's not a matter of `if' another disaster will strike . .  . 

It's only a matter of where, when, and how bad. 

Emergency Managers Urge Preparedness As California Braces For Another Round Of Flooding/Snow

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While I continually promote the idea that everyone should strive to have at least 10 days (or more) of emergency supplies on hand (see #Natlprep: Cultivating Preparedness), with another series of `atmospheric rivers' expected to slam into California over the next 10 days, emergency managers in the most vulnerable areas are urging residents to prepare for up to 2 weeks. 

The first of these storms is expected to arrive tomorrow (see NWS forecast below), but additional waves are forecast for next week.

Even though every year brings dozens of local and even regional disasters (see 2022 map below of $1 billion dollar disasters), most Americans remain woefully unprepared to deal with a prolonged disruption of essential services. 

According to FEMA's 2021 Household Survey on Preparedness, only 59% of households took 3 or more (of 12 recommended) preparedness steps in 2021.

Although that is up 2% from the 2019 survey, it is far from ideal. 

This week it will be California's turn to face a potentially life-threatening natural disaster, but next week it could be severe storms in the Ohio Valley, or a few weeks from now, spring floods in the Midwest. The Atlantic Hurricane season is less than 90 days away, and earthquakes, wildfires, and tsunamis can happen anytime. 

So, no matter where you live . . .  if a disaster struck your region today, and the power went out, stores closed their doors, and water stopped flowing from your kitchen tap for the next 7 to 14 days . . . you are you prepared with:

• A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
• A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
• Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
• A way to provide light when the grid is down.
• A way to cook safely without electricity
• A way to purify or filter water
• A way to handle basic sanitation and waste disposal. 
• A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
• A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
• An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
• Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
• A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout

If not, you've got some important work to do. A good place to get started is by visiting Ready.gov.

Some of my practical preparedness blogs from the past year you may wish to revisit include:

The Gift of Preparedness

#NatlPrep: When Evacuation Is The Better Part of Valor

Sweltering In Place (2022 Edition)

Hurricane Preparedness: Some Simple Off-The-Shelf Solar Solutions For Power Outages