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Developmental trajectories of autistic social traits in the general population

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 June 2021

Richard Pender ,
Pasco Fearon ,
Beate St Pourcain ,
Jon Heron  and
Will Mandy Open the ORCID record for Will Mandy [Opens in a new window]
Richard Pender
Affiliation:
University College London, Division of Psychiatry, Maple House, 149 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 7BN, UK
Pasco Fearon
Affiliation:
University College London, Research Department of Clinical, Educational and Health Psychology, 1-19 Torrington Place, London WC1E 7HB, UK
Beate St Pourcain
Affiliation:
Max Planck Institute for Psycholinguistics, Wundtlaan 1, 6525 XD Nijmegen, The Netherlands Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behaviour, Radboud University, The Netherlands MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, UK
Jon Heron
Affiliation:
Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Population Health Sciences, Oakfield House, Clifton BS8 2BN, UK
Will Mandy*
Affiliation:
University College London, Research Department of Clinical, Educational and Health Psychology, 1-19 Torrington Place, London WC1E 7HB, UK
*
Author for correspondence: Will Mandy, E-mail: w.mandy@ucl.ac.uk
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Abstract

Background

Autistic people show diverse trajectories of autistic traits over time, a phenomenon labelled ‘chronogeneity’. For example, some show a decrease in symptoms, whilst others experience an intensification of difficulties. Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a dimensional condition, representing one end of a trait continuum that extends throughout the population. To date, no studies have investigated chronogeneity across the full range of autistic traits. We investigated the nature and clinical significance of autism trait chronogeneity in a large, general population sample.

Methods

Autistic social/communication traits (ASTs) were measured in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children using the Social and Communication Disorders Checklist (SCDC) at ages 7, 10, 13 and 16 (N = 9744). We used Growth Mixture Modelling (GMM) to identify groups defined by their AST trajectories. Measures of ASD diagnosis, sex, IQ and mental health (internalising and externalising) were used to investigate external validity of the derived trajectory groups.

Results

The selected GMM model identified four AST trajectory groups: (i) Persistent High (2.3% of sample), (ii) Persistent Low (83.5%), (iii) Increasing (7.3%) and (iv) Decreasing (6.9%) trajectories. The Increasing group, in which females were a slight majority (53.2%), showed dramatic increases in SCDC scores during adolescence, accompanied by escalating internalising and externalising difficulties. Two-thirds (63.6%) of the Decreasing group were male.

Conclusions

Clinicians should note that for some young people autism-trait-like social difficulties first emerge during adolescence accompanied by problems with mood, anxiety, conduct and attention. A converse, majority-male group shows decreasing social difficulties during adolescence.

Keywords

ALSPACautismautistic traitschronogeneitydevelopmental trajectories
Type
Original Article
Information
Psychological Medicine , Volume 53 , Issue 3 , February 2023 , pp. 814 - 822
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Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press

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