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ABSTRACT
In a number of cases, rebel movements that won civil wars transformed into powerful authoritarian political parties that dominated post-war politics. Parties whose origins are as victorious insurgent groups have different legacies and hence different institutional structures and patterns of behaviour than those that originated in breakaway factions of ruling parties, labour unions, non-violent social movements, or identity groups. Unlike classic definitions of political parties, post-rebel parties are not created around the need to win elections but rather as military organizations focused on winning an armed struggle. Key attributes of victorious rebel movements, such as cohesive leadership, discipline, hierarchy, and patterns of military administration of liberated territory, shape post-insurgent political parties and help explain why post-insurgent parties are often strong and authoritarian. This article seeks to identify the mechanisms that link rebel victory in three East African countries (Uganda, Ethiopia, and Rwanda) to post-war authoritarian rule. These processes suggest that how a civil war ends changes the potential for post-war democratization.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes on contributors
Terrence Lyons is an associate professor of conflict resolution at the School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University, and director of the doctoral programme. His publications include: The Puzzle of Ethiopia: From Rebel Victory to Authoritarian Politics, 1991–2015 (forthcoming); Politics from Afar: Transnational Diasporas and Networks (2012); Demilitarizing Politics: Elections on the Uncertain Road to Peace (2005); Voting for Peace: Postconflict Elections in Liberia (1999); and Sovereignty as Responsibility: Conflict Management in Africa (1996). In 2016 he co-wrote “Ethiopia: The 100% Election” in the Journal of Democracy and “The Importance of Winning: Victorious Insurgent Groups and Authoritarian Politics” in Comparative Politics.
Correction Statement
This article was originally published with errors, which have now been corrected in the online version. Please see Correction (http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2020.1808351)
Notes
1 LeBas, From Protest to Parties; Elischer, Political Parties in Africa.
2 Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies, 424.
3 Michels, Political Parties, 367.
4 Manning, The Politics of Peace in Mozambique.
5 Ishiyama and Batta, “Swords into Plowshares.”
6 Lyons, Demilitarizing Politics. See also Kovacs, From Rebellion to Politics; De Zeeuw, From Soldiers to Politicians.
7 Paris, At War’s End. For a recent review of the concept see Richmond and Mac Ginty, “Where Now for the Critique of Liberal Peacebuilding?”
8 Tilly, “War Making and State Making”; Toft, Securing the Peace, 60.
9 Weinstein, Inside Rebellion.
10 Fortna and Huang, “Democratization after Civil War,” 805.
11 Levitsky and Way, Competitive Authoritarianism.
12 See also Brownlee, Authoritarianism in an Age of Democratization; Gandhi, Political Institutions under Dictatorship; and Magaloni, Voting for Autocracy.
13 Geddes, “Authoritarian Breakdown.”
14 Collier et al., Breaking the Conflict Trap, 56.
15 Southall, Liberation Movements in Power, 56–57.
16 Menkhaus, “Governance without Government.”
17 Keen, “Incentives and Disincentives for Violence”; Duffield, Global Governance and the New Wars.
18 Staniland, “States, Insurgents, and Wartime Political Orders.” See also Arjona, “Wartime Institutions”; Mampilly, Rebel Rulers.
19 Della Porta, Clandestine Political Violence.
20 Collier, Hoeffler, and Rohner, “Beyond Greed and Grievance.”
21 Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy, 25.
22 Weinstein, Inside Rebellion; Wood, Insurgent Collective Action.
23 Christia, Alliance Formation in Civil Wars; Woldemariam, When Rebels Collide.
24 Herbst, “African Militaries and Rebellion.” On the NRM see Museveni, Sowing the Mustard Seed, 7. On the TPLF see Young, Peasant Revolution in Ethiopia, 101–103. On the RPF see Misser, Vers un Nouveau Rwanda?
25 Ngoga, “Uganda,” 100.
26 Ofcansky, Uganda.
27 Schubert, “‘Guerillas Don’t Die Easily.’”
28 Young, Peasant Revolution in Ethiopia; Hammond, Fire from the Ashes.
29 Milkias, “Ethiopia, the TPLF, and the Roots of the 2001 Political Tremor,” 13.
30 Tronvoll, War and the Politics of Identity in Ethiopia, 49, 56.
31 Reed, “Exile, Reform, and the Rise of the Rwandan Patriotic Front.”
32 Balcells and Kalyvas, “Does Warfare Matter?,” 1395. See also Kalyvas and Balcells, “How the End of the Cold War Shaped Internal Conflict.” For a case study see Daly, “Organizational Legacies of Violence.”
33 Arjona, “Wartime Institutions.”
34 Kasfir, “Guerrillas and Civilian Participation,” 291.
35 Eriya Kategaya, a member of the NRA, quoted in Tideman, “Resistance Councils in Uganda,” 82.
36 Cited in Tideman, “Resistance Councils in Uganda,” 63.
37 Hammond, “Garrison Towns and the Control of Space in Revolutionary Tigray,” 92–93.
38 Bach, “Abyotawi Democracy”; Lenin, What is to be Done?
39 Vaughan and Tronvoll, The Culture of Power in Contemporary Ethiopian Political Life.
40 Berhe, A Political History of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, 252.
41 Africa Watch, Evil Days, 309; Barnabas and Zwi, “Health Policy Development in Wartime,” 42.
42 Hendrie, “The Politics of Repatriation.”
43 Prendergast and Duffield, Without Troops and Tanks.
44 Watson, Exile from Rwanda.
45 Muhanguzi, “Visiting RPA’s Captured Territory.”
46 Dyrstad, “Does Civil War Breed Authoritarian Values?”
47 Southall, Liberation Movements in Power, 6.
48 See Melber, “Limits to Liberation.”
49 The EPDM later recast itself as the Amhara National Democratic Movement.
50 Vaughan and Tronvoll, The Culture of Power in Contemporary Ethiopian Political Life, 116.
51 For the example of the Omotic People’s Democratic Front, see Markakis, Ethiopia: The Last Two Frontiers, 337.
52 Tripp, Museveni’s Uganda, 48–49. See also Lindemann, “Just Another Change of the Guard?”
53 Arriola and Lyons, “Ethiopia.”
54 AFP, “Rwandan President.”
55 Schedler, Electoral Authoritarianism.
56 Reyntjens, “Rwanda.”
57 Voter turnout data from International IDEA available at http://www.idea.int/vt/countryview.cfm?id=73. The figures for Uganda are not as dramatic – 59% in 1996, 70% in 2001, 68% in 2006, and 59% in 2011.
58 Carbone, No-Party Democracy?
59 Africa Confidential, “Uganda.”
60 Quoted in Buckley, “Ethiopia Takes New Ethnic Tack,” A21.
61 Stearns, Dancing in the Glory of Monsters.
62 International Crisis Group, Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East.
63 Somaliland is a similar case, but has not been recognized as a new state by the international community.
64 For a discussion see Toft, “Self-Determination, Secession, and Civil War.”