Turkey’s centenary could mark the end of the Erdogan era
The president faces elections just before the celebrations
By Piotr Zalewski: Turkey correspondent, The Economist, Ankara
THE MODERN state Kemal Ataturk assembled from the rump of the Ottoman Empire marks its 100th birthday in 2023. The atmosphere will hardly be festive. In 2010 Turkey’s authoritarian president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, pledged to boost GDP to $2trn and make the economy one of the world’s ten biggest by 2023. But, battered by 80% inflation and a weak currency, both largely the result of Mr Erdogan’s own policies, the country is instead stuck in 19th place. In dollar terms, GDP has actually fallen: from $957bn in 2013 to $815bn in 2021.
The economy, as well as concerns over corruption and institutional integrity, may be Mr Erdogan’s undoing. Presidential and parliamentary elections are set for June. The opposition has not yet put forward its candidate for the presidency, but polls show Mr Erdogan would lose to each of the putative contenders in a run-off. His ruling Justice and Development (AK) party and its coalition partner, the Nationalist Movement Party, are on course for a drubbing by an opposition alliance. The president’s political obituary has been written before, but even allies admit these elections will be his toughest.
Many Turks worry that Mr Erdogan may resort to extreme measures to avoid defeat. He is likely to try to spend his way out of a hole. Starved of hard currency, Turkey is courting new investments from Russia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It has already rolled out a debt-amnesty programme and dramatically raised the minimum wage. More stimulus spending could propel the official inflation rate into triple digits.
Mr Erdogan may also try to reverse his flagging fortunes through confrontation, either with Kurdish insurgents in Syria, or with old enemy Greece over airspace and maritime rights. With Greek elections round the corner, too, the risk of escalation is real.
Yet even that may not save Mr Erdogan. There is a real chance that, by October, when the official celebrations take place, the Erdogan era will be over. But do not underestimate the lengths to which he will go to prevent this happening.■
Piotr Zalewski: Turkey correspondent, The Economist, Ankara
This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2023 under the headline “Turkey turns 100”
