2,233
Views
2
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Special relationships

Who lost Ethiopia? The unmaking of an African anchor state and U.S. foreign policy

&
 

ABSTRACT

In November 2020, Ethiopia descended into full-scale civil war which, owing to mass atrocities and regional intervention, metastasized into among the most acute humanitarian emergencies in the world. The violent fragmentation of state authority tarnished Ethiopia’s internationally sanctioned role as regional peacekeeper and developmental leader—an “anchor state” of the Pax Americana in the Horn of Africa. While acknowledging the complex, multi-dimensional origins of the conflict, this article examines how efforts by the U.S. government to reinvent the strategic relationship during the 2018–2020 political transition in Addis Ababa helped pave the road to war. We argue that U.S. policymakers provided largely unconditional support to Ethiopia’s new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, creating problems of moral hazard that encouraged confrontation between rival political forces. The story of U.S. engagement in Ethiopia in this period illustrates the perils of Washington’s efforts to rebalance fraught relations with its most important regional anchors.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers, the editors at Contemporary Security Policy, senior colleagues at Columbia University, and audiences at University of Edinburgh and University of Maryland for their feedback.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

List of interviews

Interview #1, with a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, May 7, 2021.

Interview #2, with a former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, May 10, 2021.

Interview #3, with a senior officer in the National Intelligence and Security Service of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, April 19, 2016.

Interview #4, with a close advisor to the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, April 12, 2017.

Interview #5, with a former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, November 1, 2018.

Interview #6, with a senior official in the U.S. Department of Defense, March 23, 2018.

Interview #7, with a senior official in the U.S. State Department, April 27, 2021.

Interview #8, with a former senior Ethiopian diplomat, January 11, 2019.

Interview #9, with a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, June 24, 2021.

Interview #10, with a senior diplomat in the U.K. Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, June 30, 2021.

Interview #11, with a senior official of the U.S. Agency for International Development, April 7, 2021.

Interview #12, with a former senior official in the U.S. State Department, June 16, 2021.

Interview #13, with a former Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China, March 23, 2014.

Interview #14, with a senior official of the U.S. Agency for International Development, May 17, 2021.

Interview #15, with a senior advisor at the U.K. Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, April 1, 2021.

Interview #16, with an advisor in the U.K. Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, June 30, 2021.

Interview #17, with a former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, September 14, 2016.

Interview #18, with a special envoy to the region of a European state, July 6, 2021.

Interview #19, with a senior official in the U.S. State Department, July 30, 2021.

Interview #20, with a former senior official in the U.S. State Department, June 14, 2021.

Interview #21, with a former senior Ethiopian official, November 27, 2021.

Interview #22, with a member of the Central Committee of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, March 6, 2018.

Interview #23, with a member of the Central Committee of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, March 30, 2018.

Interview #24, with a senior official in the U.S. intelligence community, April 27, 2021.

Interview #25, with a (then serving) minister in the government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, October 19, 2019.

Interview #26, with a confidante of the National Security Advisor for the United Arab Emirates, June 28, 2021.

Interview #27, with a leader of Southern Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement/Prosperity Party, November 23, 2020.

Interview #28, with a diplomat in the U.K. Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, June 30, 2021.

Interview #29, with a senior official in the U.S. Department of Defense, May 11, 2021.

Interview #30, with a senior official in the U.K. Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, June 28, 2021.

Interview #31, with a senior official in the government of the State of Israel, May 24, 2021.

Interview #32, with a senior official of the “Five Eyes” intelligence partnership between the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, June 21, 2021.

Notes

1 “Popular discontent” refers to the emergence of large protest movements in Ethiopia’s Oromo and Amhara regions.

2 Conditionality, pushback, and enforcing red lines vis-à-vis strategic partners can come in a variety of forms, and ultimately depends on the context. Withholding aid, reducing diplomatic engagement, or public critique are among several available tools.

3 By “constituencies,” we refer here to the complex of human rights, democracy promoting, and humanitarian NGOs that shape, and are shaped by, U.S. foreign policy.

4 Insights gleaned from several conversations with DFC officials and Congressional staffers, November-December 2020.

5 See (note 4).

6 Similar formulation by two diplomats who served at the U.S. embassy in Addis Ababa, as per conversations with them in June 2021 and September 2021.

7 The U.S. ambassador’s engagement with the Prime Minister’s Office was the critical mechanism through which these signals were transmitted, and in the context of emerging battles with political rivals “led him [Abiy] to take the relationship with the US for granted, and not worry about U.S. support” (Interview #21 November 27 2021).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Harry Verhoeven

Harry Verhoeven is a Senior Research Scholar at the School of International and Public Affairs of Columbia University, working at the Center on Global Energy Policy. He is also the Convenor of the Oxford University China–Africa Network and Senior Adviser at the European Institute of Peace. He is author and editor of four books, including Water, Civilisation and Power in Sudan: The Political Economy of Military-Islamist State Building (Cambridge University Press) and Why Comrades Go to War (Oxford University Press/Hurst, with Philip Roessler).

Michael Woldemariam

Michael Woldemariam is an Associate Professor of International Relations and the Director of the African Studies Center at Boston University’s Pardee School of Global Studies. His research focuses on conflict, security, and governance in the Greater Horn of Africa region. His book, Insurgent Fragmentation in the Horn of Africa: Rebellion and its Discontents, is available with Cambridge University Press.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.