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Red Flags: Why Xi's China Is in Jeopardy Hardcover – October 23, 2018

by George Magnus (Author)
4.3 4.3 out of 5 stars 178 ratings
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A trusted economic commentator provides a penetrating account of the threats to China's continued economic rise

Under President Xi Jinping, China has become a large and confident power both at home and abroad, but the country also faces serious challenges. In this critical take on China’s future, economist George Magnus explores four key traps that China must confront and overcome in order to thrive: debt, middle income, the Renminbi, and an aging population. Looking at the political direction President Xi Jinping is taking, Magnus argues that Xi’s authoritarian and repressive philosophy is ultimately not compatible with the country’s economic aspirations.
 
Thorough and well researched, the book also investigates the potential for conflicts over trade, China’s evolving relationship with Trump, and the country’s attempt to win influence and control in Eurasia through the Belt and Road initiative.
Previous page
  1. Print length
    248 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    Yale University Press
  4. Publication date
    October 23, 2018
  5. Dimensions
    6.2 x 1 x 9.3 inches
  6. ISBN-10
    0300233191
  7. ISBN-13
    978-0300233193
  8. See all details
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Editorial Reviews

Review

“A comprehensive and valuable survey of the threats facing China’s economy.”—Edward Chancellor, Wall Street Journal

“George Magnus offers a forensic take on why the Chinese economy will continue to be bedevilled by politics and why it matters.”—Isabel Hilton, New Statesman

“Red Flags lands with exquisite timing"—Richard McGregor, Financial Times

"For insight into the dilemmas and decisions China’s leaders, notably Xi Jinping, will face in the next decades, it would be hard to beat Red Flags."—Diane Coyle, author of GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History

"An excellent, tightly argued and fluently written analysis of the challenges that lie behind the China Dream."—Jonathan Fenby, author of Will China Dominate the 21st Century?


"An immensely important and powerful book from one of our premier commentators on economics."—Rana Mitter, author of China’s War with Japan, 1937–1945

"A nuanced, historically informed and highly readable account of why we should never be complacent about the People’s Republic."—Kerry Brown, author of CEO, China

"Compelling, ominous and thought-provoking, George Magnus has written a book that should be essential reading for anyone trying to make sense of what is happening in China— and why it will have a global impact."—Peter Frankopan, author of The Silk Roads

About the Author

George Magnus is an associate at the China Centre at Oxford University, a research associate at the School of Oriental and African Studies, and former chief economist of UBS. He has written extensively about China in the Financial Times, Prospect, and other economic and financial publications.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Yale University Press; 1st edition (October 23, 2018)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 248 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0300233191
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0300233193
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.28 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.2 x 1 x 9.3 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.3 4.3 out of 5 stars 178 ratings

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4.3 out of 5 stars
4.3 out of 5
178 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

wsmrer
5.0 out of 5 stars A powerful piece
Reviewed in the United States on December 10, 2018
Verified Purchase
This is an extraordinary inquire into Xi Jinping’s desires for China and its role in the world in coming years. Magnus is closely connected to Oxford University’s China Centre, but has also been a consultant in the Banking world, an adviser to some asset management companies, and a knowledgeable reference for British media. This could be the most complete and provocative publication on China available today because of issues it raises without tripping off into doctrinaire proclivities.

He looks at the battle between democratic liberalism and authoritarianism, the imagery of western society as open, democratic, and progressive and Xi Jinping’s authoritarian shutting down of China’s liberalizing reforms in recent years described as well by other China specialists, and sees the latter as an appealing model to more and more counties as authoritarianism rises world wide.*
He plays this theme out against the prevailing distrust of China’s neighbors in a historical context and the appealing offers of investment and construction under Xi’s One Belt One Road recovery of the ancient Silk Road all intertwined in one of the most complete descriptions of China’s strengths and failings you are likely to find anywhere today; not predictions but a hard analysis of driving forces facing China’s unique political and economic system.

That is a basket full -- but the bulk of the book is aimed at the lingering and often repeated theme that China is on the brink of Collapse. He takes the three major themes offered by critics: The rising Debt, percentages that have caused other economies to fail (The Debt Trap – Ch. 4), The Old Before Rich occurrence (Demographic (Aging) Trap – Ch.6), and the well supported stalling of development elsewhere (Middle-Income Trap – Ch. 7), then adds a topic only a Banking specialist might notice (The Renminbi Trap – Ch. 5).
You will know the arguments but also the necessary conditions of any one of these ‘Traps’ or combinations of them to derail China’s development. That is a rich, but never doctrinaire treatment and knowing there are some serious unknowns lying ahead (it is a technical subject).** As the title indicates Xi Jinping has some hard years ahead if not derailed along the way by lingering opposition groups or current events.

This is a very worthwhile read. George Magnus takes these heavy topics and turns them into ‘a page turner,’ an expression reviewer’s love, but here true. He happens to know his subject and wants to share it with his readers. Insightful, time may prove him correct in his warnings he was an early alert on the 2007-7 Financial Crisis.
5stars
* Carl Minzner, End of an Era: How China’s Authoritarian Revival is Undermining Its Rise and William H. Overholt, China’s Crisis of Success both share Magus’ theme that China has difficult time ahead but for somewhat different reasons. They are additive if interested and all well written.
** A suggestion click on the first footnote and scan the offerings for the chapter as an introduction to what is to come, some you will want to open and look at the originals.
39 people found this helpful
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A. Menon
4.0 out of 5 stars Decent overview of the structural challenges currently faces
Reviewed in the United States on January 28, 2019
Verified Purchase
China's growth potential and trajectory remains one of the most important determinants of global growth at the moment and for the foreseeable future. Furthermore as it has interlinked with the world to an unprecedented degree, its influence on global economic activity is now often central to how assets prices are being determined and the future is being projected. In a time in which there are increased frictions in the arena of global trade, having visibility on China's growth trajectory in a variety of circumstances is extremely valuable. This book does not give that, but it foes give perspective on the challenges China faces at this stage in its economic development. George Magnus has been an advisor to investment banks and an academic for decades focusing on China so his opinions and analysis are well informed. The author tries to inform the reader as to the history as well as future challenges China will face and gives substance to all of his claims.

The author gives an effective economic history of China in Red Flag. He is certainly concerned with the growing autocratic nature of China with the consolidation of power with Xi and reminds the reader of one man rule with Mao. He gives the history of China opening up and the reforms the Party undertook 30 years ago that culminated in joining the WTO. The author highlights that the current issues that the US has unilaterally decided to dispute with China is not unfounded but is poorly thought out in strategy. He believes solutions should be multi-lateral and trading arrangements like the TPP should have been followed to better nudge behavior. The author analyses several issues he sees as potential traps for China. He discusses the debt trap which is largely the unsustainable credit intensity and the challenges of deleveraging. The author works through arithmetically why deleveraging is so challenging and how slower growth is a almost certain condition for rebalancing. The author also discusses the Renminbi trap and the impossibility of having control over the currency, have an open capital account and an independent monetary authority. For China it is the capital account which is the risk. The author describes how being added to the SDR basket is a superficial move and in the absence of an open capital account, the CNY will never be a large portion of settled trading volume. The author moves onto the demographic challenges which were catalyzed with the one-child policy. China's dependency ratio will increase rapidly in the coming decades due to the craziness of the one-child policy which also skewed the gender balance. This will further strain state finances as their obligations will balloon. The author discusses the middle income trap, though this concept is more amorphous and describes how China needs more vibrant consumer driven economy with less state intervention to deliver the appropriate goods and services to a society getting richer. This is definitely a questionable conclusion as many would argue China's entrepreneurial class are world leading. The author gets into the real time issues China is facing with trade. These are deep issues as China is not opening itself up in many critical areas to trade for its domestic markets. Furthermore its economic model does not really allow for reciprocity. These issues will plague relations for the visible future. As mentioned above, the US's approach is frowned upon by the author as giving China the upper hand as it has no strategic depth and is purely self interested and tactical. The author then gives an overview of the economic system and the difficulties in assuming the future will be like the past. There has been a growing view that the economic models of the West are failing and a growing arrogance that the China model is resilient in the post financial crisis world. There is empirical evidence to support those views but they are merely recent history. The author argues that the real challenges for China lie in the future as it grows more internally conflicted between being friendly to markets while putting the Party as the center of all priorities. This conflict is what the author believes one must focus on. He discusses Xi Xinping's China and highlights the rhetoric of the benefits of globalization from Xi need to be seen through the lens of China rationalizing its self interest to a certain extent.

Red Flags does a good job of giving an overview of the challenges China will face in the coming decades. There are books which can look at the same data and come to different conclusions so it is important to not believe that this analysis is destiny but it is important to recognize there are many fragilities that China must wearily face sooner rather than later. The book also gives a very up to date overview of China's competitive advantages in new technologies as well as geopolitical fissures. This is a good book to read for all those interested in China's political economy in a multi-polar world.
14 people found this helpful
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China Dreamer
5.0 out of 5 stars A Perfectly Timed Summary
Reviewed in the United States on November 4, 2018
Verified Purchase
The economic model China has pursued since it's early days of reform and opening up is tired. George Magnus takes us on a well-informed tour of how we've got to where we are today and, of more use, explains why much of what has worked in the past won't work in the future. He wisely avoids bold prediction about the next move and seems to suggest that simply trying to tinker with existing institutions won't do. Whether or not China goes forward, sideways or back this book reminds just how high the stakes are now, for China Inc. and the rest of the world.
4 people found this helpful
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M Schmeets
5.0 out of 5 stars Detailed and thorough treatment of the topic.
Reviewed in the United States on October 30, 2019
Verified Purchase
Very powerful book. Goes into great detail on the differences between the financial and business structures in China (under the CCP) and the west. The author points out some of the risks Xi exposes as he accumulates power, and emphasizes the importance of "purity" for the CCP.
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Flicker
4.0 out of 5 stars I agree with the idea, but -
Reviewed in the United States on September 28, 2020
Verified Purchase
I am not certain that Xi isn't above invading other countries to force China's repayment. After all he does have a significant percent of the earth's population. He appears to be becoming an indispensable provider of manufactured goods for much/most of the world. Do we have the habit yet?
One person found this helpful
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Hans Muellers
5.0 out of 5 stars I learned a lot reading this book
Reviewed in the United States on July 3, 2019
Verified Purchase
it's an almost MUST read by anybody.... we all read the news and hear the wrong side of the politics each day. Reading this book gives you a much broader and deeper insight on what is really behind the news reports. GREAT book.
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Mark O'Connor
5.0 out of 5 stars Chinas Future Problems
Reviewed in the United States on August 1, 2019
Verified Purchase
This book has a great perspective on how China’s future is going to be challenging. The autocracy, aging population and debt may catch up to cause the country to enter into a middle income trapped population.
One person found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

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Amanda N.
5.0 out of 5 stars Eye opener!!!
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on February 18, 2024
Verified Purchase
Story from first hand experience about how this despotic regime really operates on the home and international stage-buyer beware-you will be eyes wide open forevermore- with a bit of luck 👍🥰
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Don Yu
5.0 out of 5 stars Why US needs a new President with a vision.
Reviewed in Canada on February 4, 2019
Verified Purchase
I found Trump is running against the Principles of Founding Fathers. America should be kept strong with alliances. I strongly agree with George Magnus that whole World need a new U.S. President with a vision who believes in this book for sustaining enjoyment of liberty , freedom and prosperity guaranteed by U.S. Constitution.
2 people found this helpful
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José Macaya
5.0 out of 5 stars Muy iluminador para entender los desafíos que China tiene para los próximos años.
Reviewed in Spain on April 22, 2020
Verified Purchase
Muy iluminador para entender los desafíos que China tiene para los próximos años; y como consecuencia su capacidad para incrementar su influencia en el mundo. Lo hecho por China recientemente es impactante, pero lo que le queda por hacer también lo es. El futuro de China no es un jardín de rosas. El libro explica muy bien estos desafíos y la magnitud de los problemas con los que va a tener que enfrentar el régimen de Xi. Leyendo el libro uno se hace a una idea de hasta qué punto China influenciará o no lo que vamos a vivir en nuestros países a medio plazo. También permite tomar decisiones informadas a quienes piensen invertir en ese país, ya sea directa o indirectamente.
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BigH_64
5.0 out of 5 stars As detailed as it is interesting. Great Read
Reviewed in Australia on September 26, 2019
Verified Purchase
Living in China, seeing these thoughts and theories is a great way to try and understand more deeply our surrounding, events and actions. I really enjoyed the read, insight and details and when set in context of living in amongst it. it challenges what we see and read on a daily basis, every step is new learning opportunity.
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Athan
4.0 out of 5 stars Pedestrian, but solid
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on October 17, 2018
Verified Purchase
In “the West,” we’ve been raised to believe that the way forward for nations that seek progress is a state which provides strong institutions within which millions of individuals can make billions of mistakes, from which we can collectively glean the necessary lessons to build a better future. But since the crisis of 2008 (to say nothing of Brazil’s 7-1 loss to Germany in 2014) an alternative narrative has emerged: men in gray suits, with access to data and vast resources can “beat the market” through intelligent, informed decisions.

So what’s it going to be? The free market that can wander into deep crises or the intelligently planned economy that keeps things on the straight and narrow? Does China hold the secret to growth?

George Magnus is writing with the benefit of having read Acemoglu and Robinson’s answer to this important question (namely that you need both inclusive economic institutions and inclusive political institutions to achieve lasting growth, and thus that China will fail) and indeed explicitly refers to their magnum opus, “Why Nations Fail.” Regardless, he prefers to duck the question and dwell on four hurdles China will have to clear before we get to the big stuff.

Much as I’d love to hear what he’s got to say about the big questions, and much as I care a lot less about the four questions he poses than I care about (for example) why a competent Chinese scientist / artist / intellectual / teacher / dolphin trainer would want to stay in a country where machines read his every email and constantly register his whereabouts, “Red Flags” makes for persuasive reading, because it spells out four threats Xi and his party (that is rapidly displacing all other institutions of the state, Magnus alleges) face right here, right now:

1. Do they bail out the rogue lenders or do they force the already twice bailed-out local governments and banks into “balance sheet recession with Chinese characteristics?” Can the country withstand the necessary fall in GDP that will accompany the necessary refocusing away from debt-fuelled growth?

2. What gives? Free movement of capital across the Chinese border, the risk-free rate of return on assets within the Chinese economy (with the associated rate of GDP growth) or the hyper-politicized exchange rate for the Renminbi?

3. What’s to be done about the fact that China is ageing faster than any other nation on Earth? Here George Magnus, author of “The Age of Aging” does not mince words: nothing! Even the US, I seem to remember from reading that book, could re-draw its border to include Mexico and its demographics would not change in a big way. China is simply going to age, end of.

4. The middle-income trap: China’s working population has been shrinking since 2012. It will be the first country of its kind (of the kind that bootstrapped its way out of poverty via a combination of increasingly sophisticated manufacturing and protectionism) to get old before it’s gotten rich, with all that may entail for people’s sense of gratitude to the institutions of government.

This fourth “red flag” is in truth the theme of the whole book: China has reached the end of the road that started with Deng’s reforms and ended with Xi’s appointment at the top. Magnus picks up on Richard Koo’s original observation that China has reached a “Lewis turning point” in its labor market and looks for the equivalent across all institutions, to conclude that the new emperor has his work cut out.

There are bonus chapters on Chinese history, on the Belt and Road initiative and on trade, and all are written along exactly those lines: so far so good, but sometime very soon you hit a fork in the road. Not only that, but wisdom will not suffice when those choices are made: China will need luck on her side.

I was persuaded.
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