Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Valid 00Z Sat Apr 27 2024 - 00Z Mon Apr 29 2024

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains on Saturday...

...Heavy snow over the Central Rockies...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains...

Low pressure over Central Plains will move northeastward into East-Central
Canada by Sunday morning. A second low develops over the Southern High
Plains by Saturday morning and likewise, move northeastward to the Middle
Mississippi Valley by Sunday. Showers and severe thunderstorms will
develop east of the dryline. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced
Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley and Central/Southern Plains through Saturday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is
an increased threat of EF2- EF5 tornados and hail greater than two inches
over the Region.

Moreover, heavy rain will be associated with these storms. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains through Saturday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable. Heavy snow will develop over the higher
elevations of the Central Rockies overnight Friday into Saturday.

On Saturday, the threat of severe thunderstorms continues, while the
threat of excessive rainfall increases over parts of southeastern Kansas,
southwestern Missouri, Oklahoma, and northeast-central Texas. Therefore,
the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms
over the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains from
Saturday into Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is an increased threat of
EF2- EF5 tornados and hail greater than two inches over the Region.

Furthermore, heavy rain will be associated with these storms. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains. The
associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding.
Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.

On Sunday, the threat of excessive rainfall decreases slightly. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains on Sunday. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

Similarly, the threat of severe thunderstorms decreases slightly on
Sunday, too. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and
Central/Southern Plains on Sunday. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.

Meanwhile, upper-level troughing over the western third of the country and
onshore flow will produce rain and high elevation snow over parts of
Pacific Northwest, California, Great Basin, Northern Intermountain Region,
and Southwest through Saturday morning. The low elevation rain and higher
elevation snow continues over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies
through late Saturday night. On Sunday, the rain and higher elevation snow
returns to the Pacific Northwest.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php