Call it an epic rebound: After shuttering Pronto, its debt-plagued bike-share program, in March, Seattle is making national headlines for the surprise success of an innovative new pilot: dockless bike share.

Since June, three companies have deployed their brightly colored bikes on Seattle’s streets. All use a Lyft-like model borrowed from China. Rather than visiting a nearby docking station to pick up a bike, would-be riders download an app on their phones and follow a map to the closest set of wheels. They then pay for the bike, also using their phones, and scan a QR code to unlock it.

After their trip, riders can park the bike pretty much anywhere they want. They just need to find a convenient spot and lock up, as you can see in the video below:

The added luxury of ending trips close to your destination gives the dockless model a leg up on traditional bike share, according to Euwyn Poon, president and co-founder of Spin. (Along with LimeBike and the Chinese company Ofo, Spin is one of the three start-ups currently operating Seattle’s dockless system.)

“Both models are bike share, but they’re as different as a bus and an Uber,” Poon says. His personal moment of realization came after he rented a bike from a traditional bike-share program in London. He found a docking station near his hotel, but couldn’t find one near his destination, so he ended up cycling around the city searching for a place to park. When he discovered the ease of the dockless model while travelling in Beijing and Shanghai, he was sold. 

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So far, dockless bike share has failed to gain traction in the U.S. But that may be changing, with Seattle as both test lab and catalyst.

Seattleites, at least, appear to like it. The pilot’s impressive ridership numbers—local reports estimate that in the first week, total dockless rides quadrupled those of Pronto on its best week—leading some to wonder if dockless bike share will be the Next Big Thing. LimeBike, which also operates in college towns like Greensboro, North Carolina, is currently “in talks” with 20 other cities, according to CEO Toby Sun. Spin is, likewise, “in talks” with “dozens” of U.S. markets, Poon says.

Cities do appear to be prepping for the model’s expansion. In March, San Francisco officials approved code amendments to facilitate a dockless permit program. Washington, D.C. is accepting applications for a dockless pilot, slated to begin September 20.

Compelling as it is, Seattle’s success may be difficult to replicate in other U.S. markets. While the dockless model is no doubt a selling point for convenience, the Emerald City has one unique feature: the gap left by Pronto’s demise.

“Seattle is one of the few markets that used to have a dock-based program, but it failed,” Sun says. “It was not meeting the city’s and residents’ needs, so we saw an opportunity to keep trying.”

Two commonly cited reasons for Pronto’s failure include financial mismanagement and a lack of political will for rolling out a network of bike lanes. Another is the city’s hilly topography. According to Seattle Department of Transportation spokesperson Mafara Hobson, that could help explain why dockless is more popular with casual riders: Without stations, it allows for more direct routes. (Document your rides and routes with Bicycling's Ride Journal.)

“Docks just didn’t work for us,” Hobson says.

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Who else is an ideal candidate for going dockless? According to Sean Wiedel, president of the North American Bike Share Association, other cities or towns without existing, robust bike-share programs might want to take heed.

“Seattle was in a perfect position to take advantage of a dockless bike-share system,” says Wiedel, who is also the city staffer responsible for Divvy, Chicago’s dock-based program. “I think some of the cities that don’t currently have bike share are going to strongly consider taking a similar approach to Seattle.”

Cities with thriving dock-based programs, on the other hand, could prove more resistant. In August, Spin received a cease-and-desist letter from the New York City Department of Transportation after attempting to roll out its bikes in the Rockaways, a collection of waterfront neighborhoods in Queens. In January, several San Francisco supervisors announced a crackdown on Chinese dockless operator Bluegogo, likening it to other so-called “arrogant tech companies” and labelling it a public nuisance.

“In [cities with established systems], I think it’s going to be much more of a balancing act,” Weidel says. Chicago is currently having what he calls “very early conversations” with a number of dockless operators, though he would not specify which ones.

LimeBike in Seattle
LimeBike
Company reps say LimeBike saw about 10,000 rides in its first week in Seattle.

Something about the dockless concept, however, has clearly piqued the interest of existing bike-share operators. Despite the actions against Bluegogo, San Francisco regulators began setting up a permitting system several months later, acknowledging that there seemed to be significant interest in the model.

It’s also possible that the players behind established systems will develop their own dockless pilots in-house. Motivate, the company that operates New York’s Citi Bike—it also oversaw Pronto—is currently working on a smart bike with a built-in bike lock, which would theoretically work well in a dockless system. Motivate declined an on-the-record interview for this story, but a spokesperson admitted that the company has no immediate plans to introduce dockless technology in New York. The nimbler, lower-cost model could prove attractive, though, because Citi Bike has struggled to expand to some of the city’s farther-flung neighborhoods.

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Dockless bike share started in China, where it’s extraordinarily popular. Maybe too popular: Cautionary photos show bikes parked haphazardly along sidewalks, blocking rights-of-way, and even heaped up on city streets like kindling on a burn pile. One common concern in the U.S. is that dockless operators are venture funded, meaning they might focus on rapid expansion rather than on maintaining a cohesive system, leaving piles of discarded bikes in their wake.

Those fears haven’t been realized in Seattle, according to Hobson. “We’ve heard concerns that bikes will be strewn all over the city, blocking sidewalks,” she says. “We’ve seen a little bit of that, but it hasn’t been insurmountable.”

Key for her is the fact that the city wrote regulations upfront. If the start-ups don’t play along, they can face penalties. Chinese cities have been notoriously light on the regulatory front, possibly due to a government push for greener transportation in smog-choked areas.

Whatever happens, bike-share operators around the country are sure to keep an eye on Seattle through December, when the city-approved pilot ends and officials will either allow the start-ups to expand, or—and this seems unlikely—ask them to say goodbye.

“If we can be successful in Seattle,” Sun says, “we will be super confident that we can be successful in other U.S. markets.”