STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. -- The variant of the coronavirus (COVID-19) first discovered in the United Kingdom is “likely” associated with a higher risk for hospitalization and death, British government scientists said Friday, a concerning development in the latest stage of a pandemic that has caused well-over two million deaths.
The latest findings by the British government were bolstered by additional studies compared to its earlier assessment of the variant and include more deaths caused by the mutated form of the virus, according to a document posted on a government website.
“The overall picture is one of something like a 40 to 60 % increase in hospitalization risk, and risk of death,” Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist and scientific adviser to the British government, told the New York Times.
Despite that increased risk, the British scientists said, “the absolute risk of death per infection remains low.”
The mutation — known as B.1.1.7 — is rapidly spreading throughout the United States, a recent study found separately, and “has gained a strong foothold across the world,” the researchers in that analysis wrote.
Scientists believe the U.K. strain is about 35% to 45% more transmissible than the initial form of the virus that launched the pandemic. Last month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said the mutated virus could become predominant in the U.S. by March.
The cause of the elevated death rate observed by British scientists in the collection of studies utilized was not immediately clear.
There were limitations to the studies, the scientists said, including not being able to adequately account for the presence of underlying illnesses in infected people and whether or not the cases began in nursing homes.
Because the virus is considered to be more transmissible, a higher death rate could be caused by the virus spreading among at-risk populations, like those in assisted-living facilities.
Data indicates the U.K. variant has already spread to at least 82 countries and the CDC has tallied nearly 1,000 cases in the U.S. as of late last week, though that total is likely higher due to limitations in virus surveillance.