Abstract
Although considerable achievements in the global reduction of hunger and poverty have been made, progress in Africa so far has been very limited. At present, a third of the African population faces widespread hunger and chronic malnutrition and is exposed to a constant threat of acute food crisis and famine. The most affected are rural households whose livelihood is heavily dependent on traditional rainfed agriculture. Rainfall plays a major role in determining agricultural production and hence the economic and social well being of rural communities. The rainfall pattern in sub-Saharan Africa is influenced by large-scale intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability including occasional El Niño events in the tropical Pacific resulting in frequent extreme weather event such as droughts and floods that reduce agricultural outputs resulting in severe food shortages. Households and communities facing acute food shortages are forced to adopt coping strategies to meet the immediate food requirements of their families. These extreme responses may have adverse long-term impacts on households' ability to have sustainable access to food as well as the environment. The HIV/AIDS crisis has also had adverse impacts on food production activities on the continent.
In the absence of safety nets and appropriate financial support mechanisms, humanitarian aid is required to enable households effectively cope with emergencies and manage their limited resources more efficiently. Timely and appropriate humanitarian aid will provide households with opportunities to engage in productive and sustainable livelihood strategies. Investments in poverty reduction efforts would have better impact if complemented with timely and predictable response mechanisms that would ensure the protection of livelihoods during crisis periods whether weather or conflict-related. With an improved understanding of climate variability including El Niño, the implications of weather patterns for the food security and vulnerability of rural communities have become more predictable and can be monitored effectively. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how current advances in the understanding of climate variability, weather patterns and food security could contribute to improved humanitarian decision-making. The paper will propose new approaches for triggering humanitarian responses to weather-induced food crises.
References
-
Barnett T The effects of HIV/AIDS on farming systems and rural livelihoods in Uganda, Tanzania, and Zambia. FAO project TSS/1 RAF/92/TO/A pp. 164–279 1994 Rome:FAO. Google Scholar -
Barnett T& Topouzis D FAO and HIV/AIDS: towards a food and livelihoods security based strategic response. 2003 Rome:Sustainable Development Department, FAO. Google Scholar -
Cane M.A Forecasting El Niño with a geophysical model. Teleconnections linking worldwide climate anomalies, Glantz M.H, Katz R.W& Nicholls N . 1991pp. 345–369. Eds. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press. Google Scholar -
Cane M.A, Eschel G& Buckland R.W . 1994 Forecasting of Zimbabwe maize using eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature. Nature. 370, 204 doi:10.1038/370204a0. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar -
Commission for Africa 2005 Our common interest. Report of the Commission for Africa. London, UK: Commission for Africa. Published online 11 March 2005. See http://213.225.140.43/english/report/introduction.html. Google Scholar
-
Dercon S . 2004 Growth and shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia. J. Dev. Econ. 74, 309–329.doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2004.01.001. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar -
De Waal A& Whiteside A . 2003 New variant famine: AIDS and food crisis in southern Africa. Lancet. 362, 1234–1237.doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(03)14548-5. . Crossref, PubMed, ISI, Google Scholar -
Dilley M . 2002 The use of climate information and seasonal prediction to prevent disasters. WMO Bull. 51, 42–48. Google Scholar -
Dilley M, Chen R.S, Deichmann U, Lerner-Lam A.L& Arnold M Natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis. 2005 Washington, DC:The World Bank. Google Scholar -
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) 2003 The state of food insecurity in the world. Rome: FAO. Google Scholar
-
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) 2004 The state of food insecurity in the world. Rome: FAO. Google Scholar
-
Folland C.U, Palmer T.N& Parker O.E . 1986 Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea surface temperature, 1901–85. Nature. 32, 602–607.doi:10.1038/320602a0. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar -
Glantz M.H Proc. workshop, Budapest, Hungary, 25–28 October 1994 1994 Boulder, CO:Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, National Center for Atmospheric Research. Google Scholar -
Glantz, M. H. 1996 ‘Are famines so difficult to predict?’ Internet J. Afr. Stud. 1, April 1996. See http://www.brad.ac.uk/research/ijas. Google Scholar
-
Gillespie S.R& Kadiyala S HIV/AIDS, food and nutrition security: from evidence to action. 2005 Washington, DC:International Food Policy Research Institute. Google Scholar -
Gillespie S, Haddad L& Jackson R HIV/AIDS, food and nutrition security: impacts and actions. Nutrition policy paper #20: nutrition and HIV/AIDS 2001 Geneva:UN Administrative Committee on Coordination Sub-committee on Nutrition (ACC/SCN). Google Scholar -
Goddard L, Mason S.J, Zebiak S.E, Ropelewski C.F, Basher R& Cane M.A . 2001 Current approaches to seasonal to interannual climate predictions. Int. J. Climatol. 21, 1111–1152.doi:10.1002/joc.636. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar -
Goes, A. & Skees, R. J. 2003 Financing natural disaster risk using charity contributions and ex ante index insurance. The annual meetings of the American Agricultural Economics Association, Montreal, Canada, July, 27–30. Google Scholar
-
Guerny du, J. 2002 AIDS and agriculture in Africa. Can agricultural policy make a difference? In AIDS and agriculture in Africa. Food, nutrition and agriculture, no. 25. Rome: FAO. Google Scholar
-
Hess U& Syroka J Weather-based insurance in Southern Africa: the case of Malawi. Agriculture and rural development (ARD) discussion paper 13. 2005 Washington, DC:The World Bank. Google Scholar -
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 Climate change: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, summary for policy makers and technical summary for working group II report. Geneva: IPCC. Google Scholar
-
Lough J.N . 1986 Tropical Atlantic temperatures and rainfall in sub-Saharan Africa. Mon. Weather Rev. 114, 156–587.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<0561:TASSTA>2.0.CO;2. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar -
Nicholson S.E& Etekhabi D . 1986 The quasi-periodic behavior of rainfall variability in Africa and its relationship with the Southern Oscillation. Arch. Meteorol. Geophys. Biol. Ser. A. 34, 311–348. Crossref, Google Scholar -
Ogallo L.A, Janowiak J.E& Halpert M.S . 1988 Teleconnections between east African seasonal rainfall and global sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan. 66, 807–822. Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar -
Palmer J.N . 1986 Influence of Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans on Sahel rainfall. Nature. 322, 251–253.doi:10.1038/322251a0. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar -
Ropelewski D.F& Halpert M.S . 1989 Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate. 2, 268–284.doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<0268:PPAWTH>2.0.CO;2. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar -
Skees J.R, Varangis P, Larson D& Siegel P Can financial markets be tapped to help poor people cope with weather risks. Insurance against Poverty& Dercon S . 2004pp. 422–437. Eds. Oxford, UK:Oxford University Press. Crossref, Google Scholar -
UN Millennium Project 2005 Investing in development: a practical plan to achieve the millennium development goals (ed. J. D. Sachs). London: Earthscan Publications. Google Scholar
-
UNDP (United Nations Development Program) 2004: Reducing disaster risk: a challenge for development. New York: UNDP bureau for crisis prevention and recovery. Available at www.undp.org/bcpr. Google Scholar
-
Wolde-Georgis, T. 1997 ‘El Niño and drought early warning in Ethiopia.’ In Using science against famine: food security, famine early warning and El Niño, Internet J. Afr. Stud., issue no. 2—April 1997, (ed. M. H. Glantz, special volume editor). (See http://www.brad.ac.uk/research/ijas/ijasno2/ijasno2.html). Google Scholar
