TrendCompass delivers daily CTA trend following signals for investors, traders and hedgers. TrendCompass is powered by the I-System^© whose reliability and effectiveness have been proven through daily use since 2003 and a stellar performance track record in the hedge funds industry.

Simplicity and excellent results

“After having spent countless hours in attempting to develop my own trend following system, I discovered Trend Compass. The simplicity in following the trading recommendations and the excellent results allows me to use this system as my primary investing approach. I do not fear missing any large trends and feel comfortable using this system in any market environment with the majority of my investment capital.”
Dr. Fred Francis, Independent Investor

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Markets move in trends

Market trends are far and away the most powerful drivers of investment performance and trend following is the most reliable way to turn your investing into a life-long success!

The ultimate in quality support for investors and traders

Active investors have a strong tendency to underperform market benchmarks or even lose money. An 11-year study conducted by the UK Financial Conduct Authority found that as many as 80 percent of all retail investors lose money. Do not let your portfolio become a statistic! There is a better way: with systematic trend following you can turn your investing into a life-long success.

This all is in spite of the fact that since 2009, we have enjoyed the longest stocks bull market on record! Clearly, investors need a better approach. With systematic trend following you can turn your investing into a life-long success.

Invest successfully for life with systematic trend following

Our daily TrendCompass reports provide quality decision support to help you profit from trends in over 200 financial and commodity markets – with confidence and peace of mind.

I-System Trend Compass Brochure – 2023 I-System Trend Compass (PDF)

I-System: probably the best model of its kind

The reports are powered by the I-System^©, whose reliability and performance was proven through daily use since 2003. In fact, we believe that I-System is probably the best trend following model ever built. This is a bold claim – but not a hollow one (click here to see why).

What is the I-System?

I-System comprises a dual neural network of mathematical algorithms that codify a body of knowledge in market analysis and trading.

This robust architecture enables I-System to track thousands of intelligent trading strategies in any security market, generating consistent trading signals with zero loss of quality or focus. Its versatility enables the I-System to simultaneously track long-, short-, and medium-term trends and deploy multiple strategies in any market. This in turn dramatically reduces the model risk often associated with other quantitative models.

Suppose you set aside a $12,000 risk budget to trade 30-year Treasury Bond futures. Rather than turning it over to one trader, you allocate $1,000 to 12 different traders. Instead of one trader buying and selling 12 contracts, you get 12 of them trading one contract each.

All your traders studied their craft at the same school of trend following, but each looks at the market in a slightly different way: some focus on short-cycle trends, others at medium- or long-cycle trends; some keep their positions open most of the time, wait longer for the right signals and are quicker to take profits or cut their losses.

You know that some of your traders will do very well and others much less so, but fragmenting your risks among a group of them, you can be confident that as a group they will do well, even if one or two of them fall short for a time.

What we are after: large-scale price events (LSPEs)

Trend following has proven as one of the most effective investment strategies since the 1970s. That is not to say that it is easy to put in practice. For one thing, trend following can be counterintuitive: while we are naturally inclined to buy low and sell high, trend following entails the opposite – buying securities after their prices have risen and selling them as prices decline. Trend following also requires a great deal of patience and discipline. A good case in point was our experience trading crude oil in 2019/20:

During the oil price collapse in early 2020, I-System strategies generated a profit of $42.45 per barrel, simply through adherence to time-tested set of rules that define how we react to price fluctuations in the market.

The chart above fairly illustrates the nature of trend following: through the entirely unforeseen oil price collapse in the early 2020, I-System strategies generated a profit of over $42/bbl ($42,000 per single crude oil contract) in only two month’s time. However, during the previous 8 months they mostly traded in the negative territory.

To profit from a price trend, we need to be in the right position at the right time. This involves risk and incurring some losses until a price trend takes off. But when trends do unfold, the windfalls can be very substantial. Think of prices of Bitcoin, Gold, Oil, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, or stocks like AMZN, TSLA, MSFT and many others. Whatever you may think about the valuation of those assets, their price appreciation (or decline) invariably unfolded as trends that spanned months or even years, richly rewarding those who were correctly positioned to profit them.

Isn’t there an easier way?

Many investors would like to find some gimmick providing instant trading gratification and risk-free profits. This desire is met with a flood of offers promising large investment returns, risk-free trading, 80% accurate forecasts, etc. Unfortunately, almost without exception these claims will prove false. This, in part, is the reason why most retail investors lose.

The reasons for poor performance are many but they usually come down to short-term focus, investing with a poorly formulated strategy or no strategy at all and trading too frequently. As Benjamin Graham put it, “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.”

The great news!

The great news is that with a well formulated, effective strategy and discipline you can turn your investing into a life-long success that will steadily enhance your wealth and your quality of life with less stress and with peace of mind. While you’ll have to supply the discipline yourself, we will provide the dependable and effective decision support for your investing thanks to I-System Trend Following and our TrendCompass reports.

Performance: it’s a long-term process

Since the start of our track record in 2007, I-System has consistently outperformed the relevant strategy benchmarks, including world’s top ranked, Blue Chip Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs).

Below is the most recent performance summary of our Major Markets portfolio: 180 trend following strategies covering 15 key global markets including main equity indices, treasury futures, energy, metals, and FX pairs (through March, 2023).

A well-diversified trend following portfolio is a robust diversifier; importantly, it provides a non-correlated source of returns as we saw in 2022 and also during the 2020 market turmoil. In both cases, Major Markets portfolio has diverged from adverse trends in stocks and bonds markets.

The PDF report below details the performance of all 180 strategies in charts, through July 2023:

TrendCompass Major Markets Performance Review – July 2023 FULL PDF REPORT

Note, the above performance review is the result of actual trading signals communicated to subscribers in real time – it is not a backtest simulation.

The benefits of I-System TrendCompass reports

CUTTING THROUGH THE INFORMATION OVERLOAD

Financial industry generates thousands of research reports each and every day, an overwhelming glut of information. Instead of adding to your reading pile, we analyze market trends and deliver the final product of our research: clear, actionable decisions you can digest in seconds, not minutes per day.

REAL-TIME CTA INTELLIGENCE

For decades, commodities trading advisors (CTAs) have used systematic trend following as one of the best strategies in active investment trading. Institutions like Nomura, JPMorgan and Rabobank pay close attention to CTAs as and that understanding CTA strategies “can provide a strong edge in today’s highly systematized markets.” TrendCompass delivers this edge – effectively, reliably and in real time!

PROVEN RELIABILITY, VERSATILITY AND EFFECTIVENESS

Our reports are generated by the I-System, the product of more than 20 years of passionate and uncompromising obsession with quality. We have tested its effectiveness in the most rigorous way possible: by managing real money portfolios and comparing their performance to that of the world’s leading “managed futures” funds or Commodity Trade Advisors (CTAs). Since the inception of our track record in 2007, I-System has consistently outperformed its benchmarks (audited). Read more about the I-System…

INVALUABLE, TIMELY DECISION SUPPORT, EVERY DAY

A reliable and effective trends auto-pilot provides invaluable decision-support. Even only as a ‘reality check’ or a source of ‘second opinion’ to market analysts, TrendCompass gives you the guidance to navigate the markets profitably, confidently and with a peace of mind.

Screen-grab of a typical S&P500 strategy from I-System’s interface shows up-trends in blue and downtrends in red. Onset of a down-trend is a signal to reduce or hedge your market exposure. It is equally important to know when to start adding to your exposure again. During the 2008 bear market, we achieved a 27% positive net return thanks to I-System strategies like this one. The authenticity of our results was audited by KPMG.

What some of our clients say…

Our clients enjoy the sober, consistent quality decision support they get from TrendCompass… Here are a few testimonials from professional and non-professional investors:

But isn’t there an easier way?

Many investors would like to find some gimmick providing instant trading gratification and risk-free profits. This desire is met with a flood of offers promising large investment returns, investment, risk-free trading, 80% accurate forecasts, etc. Unfortunately, these claims will usually prove false and as we already saw, most retail investors suffer the consequences.

Why do most investors lose?

The great news is that you don’t need to be a statistic. With a well formulated, effective strategy and discipline you can turn your investing into a long-term success that will steadily enhance your wealth over your lifetime as well as a better quality of life with less stress and a peace of mind. While you’ll have to supply the discipline yourself, we provide the most effective long-term investing strategy thanks to I-System Trend Following and our TrendCompass reports.

TrendCompass: what you get

Without fail, TrendCompass will help you profit from major price trends. We worked hard to make our reports intuitive and easy to read so you can review them in just a few seconds each day. The reports consist of an e-mail with a very brief commentary, and a PDF containing a markets summary page followed by a detailed breakdown per market showing trading signals and/or trend reversals per each individual trading strategy.

Daily e-mail summary

Your daily e-mail summarizes the changes in directional exposure based on previous trading session. An intuitive bar chart shows the recommended exposure so that you can grasp it at a glance.

PDF – summary page

PDF – detailed breakdown by market and by trading strategy

TrendCompass offers a variety of standard or customized market reports:

Standard reports

Available standard reports available and subscription rates (excluding any promotional offers or discretionary discounts) are listed below.

Customized portfolios

We can customize reports for clients who wish to track a different selection of markets, a larger number of strategies, or follow a particular selection of strategies (for example, a preference for short-cycle trends). We’ll seek to accommodate any such request. A one-time 1,200 Euros setup fee may apply for customized portfolios.

Systematic trend following entails disciplined adherence to predefined and time-tested rules. It helps investors and traders keep composure through the commotion of volatile market moments so they can navigate market trends profitably, with confidence and peace of mind!

Please e-mail your request to TrendCompass@ISystem-TF.com and you’ll start receiving TrendCompass with no other obligation on your part.

Free resources

My book “Mastering Uncertainty in Commodities Trading,” was rated #1 on FinancialExpert.co.uk list of “The 5 Best Commodities Books for Investors and Traders” for 2021 and 2022

The “Trend Following Bible,” which covers much of the same curriculum, is more up to date (it was published in 2021) and to my mind a better book. Both are available free of charge at the above links.

You can also find my interview discussing trend following with Michael Covel of TrendFollowing.com at this link:

Episode 975: Alex Krainer Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Check also the seven simple DOs and DONTs of trend following at the link!

Subscription terms

This SUBSCRIPTION AGREEMENT (AGREEMENT) is by and between KRAINER ANALYTICS or a company to be nominated subsequently (PUBLISHER) and the undersigned company or person (CUSTOMER). The EFFECTIVE DATE of the agreement will be the date when the customer requests to receive paid subscription service and upon expiration of the free trial period as evidenced by filled subscription form, e-mail request or acceptance of PUBLISHER’S invoice.

1. THE SERVICE: PUBLISHER produces and distributes TrendCompass reports (REPORTS) to which the CUSTOMER may purchase monthly or yearly subscription.

2. STANDARD REPORTS: PUBLISHER produces a variety of “TrendCompass” reports (REPORTS). For each market included therein, the REPORTS convey daily trading recommendations based on systematic trend-following strategies as generated by PUBLISHER’s proprietary I-SYSTEM technology. Such trading strategies are believed to be similar to those used by many Commodities Trading Advisors (CTA) or Managed Futures funds.

3. CUSTOMIZED REPORTS: in addition to, or in lieu of REPORTS specified herein, CUSTOMER may request a bespoke report according to CUSTOMER’s own requirements. The subscription to such reports may vary from those specified herein and their creation may involve an additional set-up fee that shall be borne by the CUSTOMER.

4. INTENT AND OBJECTIVE: The objective of REPORTS, whether standard or customized, is to provide the CUSTOMER guidance as to the likely activities of CTA investment funds which are believed capable of influencing price fluctuations in many markets. CUSTOMER acknowledges that REPORTS do not purport to accurately reflect such funds’ activities but rather represent an approximation of their trades based on the technology which is proprietary to PUBLISHER and is believed to be similar and correlated to models used by many CTAs. By accepting this agreement the CUSTOMER expressly acknowledges that REPORTS constitute a form of supplemental decision support and in no event shall they be deemed as an inducement to trade. The CUSTOMER further acknowledges having sufficient experience in trading the markets included in REPORTS to which the CUSTOMER may subscribe and awareness of risks inherent in trading in such markets.

5. DELIVERY: To the best of PUBLISHER’s ability, REPORTS shall be delivered to the CUSTOMER each working day (Monday through Friday) by e-mail in PDF format or other suitable format.

6. NO REDISTRIBUTION: CUSTOMER acknowledges and agrees that the REPORTS constitute proprietary and confidential information of substantial value to PUBLISHER and shall not redistribute, reproduce, retransmit, disseminate, sell, publish, broadcast, or circulate all or any portion of any report to any third party except with and according to express permission as requested from and granted by PUBLISHER for a stated, limited purpose and as witnessed in writing. Any such redistribution will include a proper copyright notice reading, substantially, as follows: “Source: KRAINER ANALYTICS (or TBN)” Such notice shall be placed immediately adjacent to the published content in a reasonably legible font size. CUSTOMER may not make or permit any alterations to any reproduced materials or any portion of REPORTS unless expressly agreed to by PUBLISHER.

7. FREE TRIAL PERIOD: The EFFECTIVE DATE of this AGREEMENT follows a discretionary free trial period afforded by PUBLISHER to the CUSTOMER in order to better appreciate the nature of REPORTS CUSTOMER subscribes to. Normally, this period shall encompass a two week period from the commencement of daily delivery of REPORTS, normally consisting of ten daily reports. Upon the acceptance of this AGREEMENT, the free trial period ends and subscription fees become due to PUBLISHER from the EFFECTIVE DATE onward.

8. FEES: Subscription fees for each standard REPORT to which CUSTOMER subscribes are set forth herein. Fees for customized report will be determined and communicated based on CUSTOMER’s requirements.

9. PAYMENT: The fees are due and payable within one calendar month from the EFFECTIVE DATE against and in accordance to invoices issued by PUBLISHER to the CUSTOMER. If any PUBLISHER invoice is issued in error, CUSTOMER will promptly contest such errors and request an amended invoice. Unless an invoice is contested on valid or reasonable grounds, CUSTOMER’s failure to timely pay the fees as invoiced by PUBLISHER shall entitle PUBLISHER to halt delivery of further REPORTS. Failure to pay the fees within 30 days from the invoice date shall entitle PUBLISHER to terminate this AGREEMENT.

10. TERM AND TERMINATION: Except for termination for non-payment of fees by CUSTOMER or material breach of any term or condition to this AGREEMENT by either party, this AGREEMENT is valid for 12 months from the EFFECTIVE DATE and will renew automatically unless either PUBLISHER or CUSTOMER terminates the AGREEMENT. PUBLISHER reserves the right to terminate this agreement 12 months from the EFFECTIVE DATE by giving a 30 day termination notice to the CUSTOMER. The CUSTOMER may terminate the AGREEMENT by giving a 30 day cancellation notice to PUBLISHER. Termination of services under this AGREEMENT shall be without limitation as to any other rights or remedies of the terminating party.

11. DATA INTEGRITY: REPORTS are based on and depend on price data PUBLISHER obtains from data providers that PUBLISHER believes to be reliable, but PUBLISHER does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or availability of such data. Such price data is published by clearinghouses of various global securities exchanges and may from time to time contain errors. Corrections of data errors are regularly published by exchange clearinghouses and such corrections may on occasion retroactively change the trading recommendations communicated in the REPORTS.

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