RESEARCH PAPER
A changing climate is snuffing out post-fire recovery in montane forests
Kyle C. Rodman,
Thomas T. Veblen,
Mike A. Battaglia,
Marin E. Chambers,
Paula J. Fornwalt,
Zachary A. Holden,
Thomas E. Kolb,
Jessica R. Ouzts,
Monica T. Rother,
Corresponding Author
Kyle C. Rodman
Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Correspondence
Kyle C. Rodman, Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, GUGG 110, 260 UCB, Boulder, Colorado, 80309, USA.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorThomas T. Veblen
Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Search for more papers by this authorMike A. Battaglia
US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
Search for more papers by this authorMarin E. Chambers
Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
Search for more papers by this authorPaula J. Fornwalt
US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
Search for more papers by this authorZachary A. Holden
US Forest Service Northern Region, Missoula, Montana, USA
Search for more papers by this authorThomas E. Kolb
School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
Search for more papers by this authorJessica R. Ouzts
US Forest Service, Kaibab National Forest, Williams, Arizona, USA
Search for more papers by this authorMonica T. Rother
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of North Carolina Wilmington, Wilmington, North Carolina, USA
Search for more papers by this author
Kyle C. Rodman,
Thomas T. Veblen,
Mike A. Battaglia,
Marin E. Chambers,
Paula J. Fornwalt,
Zachary A. Holden,
Thomas E. Kolb,
Jessica R. Ouzts,
Monica T. Rother,
Corresponding Author
Kyle C. Rodman
Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Correspondence
Kyle C. Rodman, Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, GUGG 110, 260 UCB, Boulder, Colorado, 80309, USA.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorThomas T. Veblen
Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Search for more papers by this authorMike A. Battaglia
US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
Search for more papers by this authorMarin E. Chambers
Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
Search for more papers by this authorPaula J. Fornwalt
US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
Search for more papers by this authorZachary A. Holden
US Forest Service Northern Region, Missoula, Montana, USA
Search for more papers by this authorThomas E. Kolb
School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
Search for more papers by this authorJessica R. Ouzts
US Forest Service, Kaibab National Forest, Williams, Arizona, USA
Search for more papers by this authorMonica T. Rother
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of North Carolina Wilmington, Wilmington, North Carolina, USA
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
Aim
Climate warming is increasing fire activity in many of Earth’s forested ecosystems. Because fire is a catalyst for change, investigation of post-fire vegetation response is critical to understanding the potential for future conversions from forest to non-forest vegetation types. We characterized the influences of climate and terrain on post-fire tree regeneration and assessed how these biophysical factors might shape future vulnerability to wildfire-driven forest conversion.
Location
Montane forests, Rocky Mountains, USA.
Time period
1981–2099.
Taxa studied
Pinus ponderosa; Pseudotsuga menziesii.
Methods
We developed a database of dendrochronological samples (n = 717) and plots (n = 1,301) in post-fire environments spanning a range of topoclimatic settings. We then used statistical models to predict annual post-fire seedling establishment suitability and total post-fire seedling abundance from a suite of biophysical correlates. Finally, we reconstructed recent trends in post-fire recovery and projected future dynamics using three general circulation models (GCMs) under moderate and extreme CO2 emission scenarios.
Results
Though growing season (April–September) precipitation during the recent period (1981–2015) was positively associated with suitability for post-fire tree seedling establishment, future (2021–2099) trends in precipitation were widely variable among GCMs, leading to mixed projections of future establishment suitability. In contrast, climatic water deficit (CWD), which is indicative of warm, dry conditions, was negatively associated with post-fire seedling abundance during the recent period and was projected to increase throughout the southern Rocky Mountains in the future. Our findings suggest that future increases in CWD and an increased frequency of extreme drought years will substantially reduce post-fire seedling densities.
Main conclusions
This study highlights the key roles of warming and drying in declining forest resilience to wildfire. Moisture stress, driven by macroclimate and topographic setting, will interact with wildfire activity to shape future vegetation patterns throughout the southern Rocky Mountains, USA.
Open Research
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
Field data, spatial data, gridded climate data, final statistical models, and example model outputs from this study are available in the Dryad Digital Repository (Rodman, Veblen, Battaglia, et al., 2020): https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.qz612jmb7.
Supporting Information
| Filename | Description |
|---|---|
| geb13174-sup-0001-Suppinfo.docxWord document, 2.6 MB | Supplementary Material |
Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.
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