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Russia’s armed forces are suffering substantial losses in Ukraine

But that does not mean Ukraine is better positioned for future combat

On the first morning of Russia’s invasion, a Ukrainian air-defence missile brought down a Ka-52 helicopter. Nicknamed the “Alligator”, the Russian combat chopper had been touted at air shows, and is designed to wipe out tanks, vehicles and enemy soldiers. China has bought a stock of its own.

The early display of Ukrainian military strength surprised experts—and set the tone for what has followed. Stijn Mitzer, an analyst in Amsterdam, and his colleagues at Oryx, a blog, track losses by surveying openly published photos and videos of the war. Nearly three weeks into Vladimir Putin’s reckless campaign, Ukraine has destroyed, damaged or captured at least 1,054 pieces of Russian equipment, about four times as many as it has lost to Russia.

These figures are far from perfect. They are a lower bound, only counting losses confirmed by photographic or video evidence. Ukrainians are far more likely to capture such evidence and disseminate it than Russian soldiers who have probably had their phones confiscated and are, according to the Kremlin’s propaganda, on a peacekeeping mission. Nevertheless the figures provide a glimpse through the fog of war.

If Russia triumphs, it is likely to be through sheer mass. According to the pre-war count by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank in London, Russia had 15,857 armoured combat vehicles; Ukraine had just 3,309. The proven losses so far account for about 6% of Ukraine’s armoured equipment but only 4% of Russia’s. That is why the Ukrainian government is desperate to keep supplies flowing into the country.

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