Perhaps you’ve seen the memes, the ones that poke fun at Illinois and encourage thoughts of moving away. In one, a marijuana plant appears alongside the message, “Illinois: We’ll keep you as high as our taxes.”
An “Escaping Illinois” Facebook group has more than 39,000 followers. One man even wrote a song called “Goodbye Illinois,” lamenting the state’s taxes and political corruption and expressing his desire to leave.
Memes, however, can’t capture the complexity of population trends for an entire state or region.
The state has been struggling to keep residents for decades, with more people leaving than arriving since at least 1970. But it’s only in the last few years that the state’s population and that of its largest and most important economic engine, Chicago, have slipped.
During that time, the gap between the number of people leaving the state and those arriving has widened. Those losses were formerly offset by gains from international migration and births, but these numbers have also decreased recently. As a result, the overall state population began to fall in 2014.
Other neighboring Midwestern states — Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri — also have had a difficult time both keeping existing residents and attracting new ones. But all of those states have experienced population growth for most of this decade, though the numbers are small. Not Illinois.
To better understand the trend, the Tribune gathered and analyzed years of census data, interviewed demographers and spoke with people who have decided to move. Here is some of what we discovered.
More people are moving out. Fewer are moving in.
For decades, more people have left Illinois than have moved into the state. And that gap, which demographers call net migration, is getting worse.
In 2018, the state had an estimated net migration loss of 6.5 people for every 1,000 residents, according to the most recent census data. Five years earlier, the net loss was about 3 people per 1,000 residents.
The latest number puts Illinois 49th out of the nation’s 50 states on net migration loss. Only Alaska had a worse rate, with a loss of 11 people per 1,000 residents.
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Interestingly, if you look only at the rate of people leaving one state for another, Illinois doesn’t particularly stand out. Illinois ranked No. 21 — near the middle of the pack — on the rate of domestic out-migration in 2017, the most recent year for which those estimates are available.
Where Illinois really lags, the data shows, is in attracting new residents. In 2017, Illinois’ rate of in-migration was third-to-last nationally, even when factoring in people who moved to Illinois from other countries.
Census data shows that since 2013, in-migration has been decreasing in Illinois with out-migration mostly rising.
In 2017, an estimated 266,000 people reported they had moved to Illinois in the last year, which is 9% fewer than the 292,000 estimated arrivals in 2013. The number of people who arrived from other states rather than from abroad declined even more steeply, from more than 223,000 to about 195,000.
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Combine migration losses with an aging population, declining birth rates and stagnated international migration, and the result is decreased population.
In 2014, Illinois’ overall population decreased for the first time in nearly two decades, and it has continued to fall since, amounting to a 0.8% decrease from 2010 levels or a loss of 99,682 people.
Population decline is also happening in more parts of the state. From 1990 to 2000, 68 of Illinois’ 102 counties gained population. But so far this decade, only nine counties, including Kane, Will and DuPage in the Chicago area, have added residents.
Of about 339,000 people who reported moving from Illinois to another state in 2017 — roughly 3% of the state’s population — most had been living in Cook County or one of its suburban counties. That makes sense, given that these areas are more populous than other parts of the state.
But counties with the highest rates of migration to other states tended to be in other parts of Illinois.
Along the Mississippi River in western Illinois, Hancock County had a loss of about 47 people per 1,000 residents, one of the highest rates in the state, according to the latest census estimates. Other counties with high loss rates include Jackson County, which is home to Carbondale, and Jersey County, north of St. Louis.
Cook County, by comparison, had an estimated 26 people per 1,000 residents leave the state.
When the Tribune looked at the demographics of people who moved out of state from the Chicago area — Cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will counties — it found the income and racial breakdowns for this group generally mirrored the patterns of the overall population in the area. Most of the movers made $50,000 or less in income, and most were white non-Hispanic, according to census survey data collected from 2013 to 2017.
Those who left the area were more likely to be young; the largest group, 28%, were in their 20s when they moved away. Census data shows that people of this age have the highest moving rate nationally.
People moving from the region to neighboring states tended to earn a bit less and have fewer years of schooling than those who moved farther away, the data shows. Those moving to non-neighboring states also skewed a bit older.
Of the black residents who moved out of Cook County, 85% stayed in Illinois, compared with 77% of white residents leaving Cook.
The destination? Often, it’s Indiana.
For more than a decade, the top destination for Illinoisans leaving the state has been Indiana, except for a couple of years when Wisconsin came out ahead.
In 2017, Indiana drew nearly 9% of the Illinois residents who moved out of state. Florida, California, Wisconsin and Texas were among the top destinations as well.
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Indiana was an especially strong magnet for black Illinoisans. The Tribune’s analysis of census data found black Illinois residents who moved out of state in recent years were twice as likely to end up in Indiana than white residents who left the state.
Speros Batistatos, president and CEO of the South Shore Convention and Visitors Authority in Indiana, said people moving into northwest Indiana tend to fall into two buckets: young couples with children under 5 — who like to move into a new school district before their kids begin kindergarten — and empty nesters.
“I just think that people are looking at value and the amount of money and time they can save and also the quality of life,” Batistatos said. When you factor in property taxes, income taxes, cheaper gasoline and other fees, “All of a sudden, you’re talking real money.”
Carla Thacker moved across the border from Chicago to northwest Indiana over Memorial Day weekend. Thacker, deputy director of guest services at the Museum of Science and Industry, said she and her partner, Liz Villalobos, were looking for a bigger place with a yard, room for a garden and off-street parking.
And with Villalobos’ family already in Munster, Indiana, the destination was basically a no-brainer.
“It would have been great to be able to buy a home in Chicago, but that was just financially impossible,” said Thacker, 34. Their former coach house in Pilsen cost about $1,700 a month, she said, and while they are paying slightly more now, they are getting significantly more room and property for their money.
Batistatos said that despite the state border, people moving into northwest Indiana are still part of Chicagoland: same television stations, same time zone, similar commuting times, same sports teams and access to cultural amenities.
Census data on commuter flows indicates that roughly a fourth of all employed people who live in Lake County, Indiana, work in Illinois. So even though people like Thacker may be trading driver’s licenses and voting places, they often remain connected to Chicago.
Incidentally, though Lake County is often portrayed as a beneficiary of Illinois’ woes, the county has actually been losing population recently as well. The decreases are small, but Lake has been shrinking since 2010.
And although about twice as many people moved from Illinois to Indiana in 2017 than the other way around, the percentage of Indiana residents who left for Illinois is about the same as the percentage of Illinois residents who moved to Indiana — 0.25% and 0.23%, respectively.
After only a few weeks in Indiana, Thacker said the move had been everything that she hoped. The couple already had a new network of friends and were enjoying the spaciousness of their three-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom ranch house, which has a two-car garage, a deck and a yard.
Although Thacker’s commute to the museum has tripled compared with the trip from Pilsen, the trade-offs are worth it, she said. Plus, most of the time the traffic along her route from Indiana is moving, an upgrade from the gridlock she sometimes endured in Chicago.
“It’s the best,” Thacker said of her new home. Toward the end of their time in the city, Thacker said she found herself thinking, as she searched for street parking: “This is the last straw. I can’t do it anymore.”
Black Chicago has been losing population.
Like Illinois, Chicago has lost population in the past few years, shrinking by about 20,200 residents since 2015.
But the city’s black population has shrunk much more. Over the same time period, Chicago had a loss of about 35,600 black residents. Meanwhile, the number of white, Asian and Latino residents all grew.
This means that Chicago’s population losses are more intense in predominantly black parts of the city. Englewood and its surrounding neighborhoods have been particularly hard hit, with a loss of more than 56,400 residents combined since 2010, census data shows.
Although it’s not clear whether migration alone is driving this loss, it is a factor. The trend is often described as “reverse migration,” as black residents begin to return to Southern states decades after their ancestors flocked to northern destinations during the Great Migration.
Born and raised in Chicago, growing up mostly in Woodlawn, Armani Martin said she and her peers began to feel a sense of hopelessness as they grew older. That feeling ultimately pushed her to start her adult life elsewhere.
When preparing for college, Martin looked for options outside of Chicago. She said she chose Atlanta because there would be opportunities for young black women, and after starting at Clark Atlanta University she decided to stay.
“Living here is living without stress,” said Martin, 25.
Martin left school during her junior year to work in the news industry, then started a music video production company. She bought a house at 22 and recently moved to Los Angeles after seven years in Georgia.
And yet, Martin says Chicago still feels like home and she would like to come back.
“I don’t want to start a family anywhere else but Chicago,” she said, “but until things change, I don’t want to be one of those mothers crying on the news because my son was just murdered because the government of Illinois won’t get their stuff together.”
Census estimates from 2013 to 2017 indicate that the Atlanta metro area was the second most popular urban destination among black residents who left Illinois. (Oddly, the Chicago metro area is at the top of the list, because the census considers some bits of Indiana and Wisconsin to be part of the Chicago region.)
The next biggest draws for black residents were the St. Louis, Indianapolis and Houston metro areas.
For white people who moved out of Illinois, the Chicago metro area came second after St. Louis, followed by Phoenix, Minneapolis and Denver.
Some parts of Cook County have seen growth in their black population. According to census survey data from 2013 through 2017, the largest increases in Cook County were seen in south suburban Matteson and a five-block stretch of Chicago in the Woodlawn neighborhood just west of the Metra tracks. In both areas, black residents made up at least 89% of the population.
Why do people move away? Lots of reasons.
Illinois’ reputation as a “high tax state” tends to have a life of its own online. “So glad I got away from that awful state when I did,” one woman posted.
One Illinois meme features the characters from the movie “Office Space” gathered in a field to batter a copy machine. The characters represent gas, property and income taxes, and the copier is Illinois residents.
Homer Glen resident Bob Raudys even wrote a song titled “Goodbye Illinois.” It’s posted online.
“Well, they’re taxing this and they’re taxing that, pretty soon there ain’t nothin’ left,” Raudys sings as he strums a guitar. “Pension fund is so well run, worst in the nation: well done! I’d really like to stay, but I just can’t pay and pay.”
Raudys, who grew up in Chicago and now runs his own printing and marketing company, said he recorded the song last fall, right after receiving his property tax bill. He said he pays $9,300 per year and he’s bracing for more in the future. “There’s no relief!” he said.
“I swear to God, it feels like I’m living in a socialist state,” said Raudys, 59. He said he and his wife have been shopping for properties across the border in Indiana. “We’ve made up our minds. We’re going.”
Are taxes the main reason people are leaving Illinois? Census data can’t answer that exact question, though it does provide some clues.
The Census Bureau conducts a survey every month that includes questions about why a person changed residences in the previous year. The survey offers a range of possible answers, from foreclosure/eviction to change of climate to “wanted better neighborhood/less crime.”
Taxes is not on the list of possible answers, though experts said the “wanted cheaper housing” category might capture people concerned about high taxes.
Since 2008, the most common reason for moving cited by people who left Illinois was a new job or job transfer, which accounted for nearly one in three moves. That was also the top reason given by people who moved out of any state in the nation.
In second and third place both for Illinois and the U.S. were two grab-bag answers: “other family reason” and “other housing reason.”
Christine Percheski, an associate professor of sociology at Northwestern University who studies changes in U.S. family life and has analyzed census reports, surveys and other demographic research, said some people certainly move because of taxes or crime rates.
But the biggest reasons people usually give for moving, Percheski said, are jobs (or shorter commutes), schools and to be closer to family. People also seek out available housing that fits their needs, she said, whether that is more space for a growing family, a smaller place because children are grown, or a more affordable option.
“Population decline for a city as big as Chicago or a county as large as Cook County is probably not driven by small changes in taxes or crime rates,” Percheski said.
Some demographers say people who move farther away from the Midwest often leave for different reasons than those who relocate nearby.
“Most of the people are coming here for employment opportunities,” said Texas state demographer Lloyd Potter, who examined data on Texas residents who said they had been living in a different state a year earlier.
He said people who moved in from other states tended to be more likely than other residents of Texas to be employed and to have higher levels of educational attainment and higher levels of income. Texas “seems to be attracting a higher skilled, higher-paying type” of job seeker, Potter said.
Marisa Wilson grew up in the South Deering neighborhood on Chicago’s Far South Side, left to attend college at the University of Notre Dame, then returned to the city to start her career. But in 2014, with her two sons growing older, she decided it was time for a change.
Wilson, her husband and their boys, ages 12 and 10, moved from Hyde Park to Indiana in 2014, just as their youngest son was preparing to enter kindergarten.
The move surprised even Wilson — “I never thought I’d end up living anywhere else” — but a confluence of factors made it the correct decision for her family.
“In a way, I feel like it’s a familiar story,” Wilson said. “We started thinking about our family’s lifestyle and it just made a whole lot more sense to move out to the suburbs.”
The deciding factor when considering where to move, Wilson said, was the schools. While living in the city, Wilson’s sons were attending different schools, each several miles away from their home.
Now the boys attend school a few minutes away. Running errands is easier and faster, Wilson said. And the family has more space: a quad-level ranch with a backyard in Munster.
“I tell people we spent $3,000 more but got three times the amount of space (a four-bedroom home vs. a three-bedroom condo),” said Wilson, 49, who works at the Indiana University Northwest campus in Gary.
Wilson said that while the primary motivating factor for her move was the schools situation, “the state of Illinois finances” didn’t help matters.
Her husband especially worried about the path the state was on, and Wilson said the state’s budget impasse and financial situation could be felt in the quality of public schools and funding for Chicago Public Schools.
“That was definitely a factor,” Wilson said. “The overall cost of living is cheaper here. There’s a significant difference. … We just felt like it wasn’t going to get any better.”
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