The group is successfully tapping into local desperation. “‘We are dying, let’s put up a fight!’ is the way some Rohingyas feel,” says one Muslim leader who works to achieve reconciliation among religious groups in Rakhine. But ARSA’s strategy is reckless. The attack last October triggered months of brutal military reprisals against civilians and the flight of some 87,000 Rohingyas. Security analysts speculate that ARSA deliberately provoked the army, knowing its tendency towards indiscriminate retaliation and hoping that this would attract international attention. The government of Myanmar recently designated ARSA a terrorist organisation.
In the information war that is being waged in parallel with the battle on the ground, each side is trying to present the other in the worst possible light. Vivid images on social media show mutilated and charred bodies; comments heap abuse on the supposed perpetrators. Verifying when and where atrocities took place, and who committed them, is tricky. Using satellite photographs to spot the smoke from burning buildings, a method previously used to monitor the extent of violence in Rakhine, is difficult when, as now, the area is covered by clouds.
The government’s response has fuelled animosity. When Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s de facto leader, took office in 2016, she vowed to end the country’s many civil wars. But she has consistently failed to acknowledge the plight of the Rohingyas, apparently for fear of alienating Buddhist voters and the army, which still holds enormous sway. For the same reason, newly published proposals for calming Rakhine, the product of a year-long study led by Kofi Annan, a former head of the UN, are unlikely to be fully implemented. These include revising a citizenship law which is used to justify the denial of birth certificates to Rohingyas born in Myanmar.
International agencies find it hard to influence the government. The authorities claim that a photograph circulating online, in which a carton of biscuits from the World Food Programme, a UN body, is visible inside a militants’ training camp, is evidence that insurgents are in cahoots with aid workers. The government says it is investigating claims that landmines laid by militants were made from materials imported by humanitarian groups, such as steel pipes and ammonia. It denounces what it describes as foreign meddling in the conflict (there is indeed a risk that it could attract foreign fighters). In June the government indicated that it would refuse visas to a UN human-rights team. Allowing such delegates to visit would suggest Myanmar has nothing to hide. Sadly, it is keeping much under wraps.
