Abstract

Ivermectin is an antiparasitic drug being investigated for repurposing against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Ivermectin showed in vitro activity against SARS-COV-2, but only at high concentrations. This meta-analysis investigated ivermectin in 23 randomized clinical trials (3349 patients) identified through systematic searches of PUBMED, EMBASE, MedRxiv, and trial registries. The primary meta-analysis was carried out by excluding studies at a high risk of bias. Ivermectin did not show a statistically significant effect on survival (risk ratio [RR], 0.90; 95% CI, 0.57 to 1.42; P = .66) or hospitalizations (RR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.36 to 1.11; P = .11). Ivermectin displayed a borderline significant effect on duration of hospitalization in comparison with standard of care (mean difference, –1.14 days; 95% CI, –2.27 to –0.00; P = .05). There was no significant effect of ivermectin on time to clinical recovery (mean difference, –0.57 days; 95% CI, –1.31 to 0.17; P = .13) or binary clinical recovery (RR, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.94 to 1.50; P = .15). Currently, the World Health Organization recommends the use of ivermectin only inside clinical trials. A network of large clinical trials is in progress to validate the results seen to date.

Open Forum Infectious Diseases, Volume 8, Issue 11, November 2021, ofab358, https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofab358

On July 6, 2021, Open Forum Infectious Diseases published the article “Meta-analysis of Randomized Trials of Ivermectin to Treat SARS-CoV-2 Infection” by Hill, et al. Subsequently, we and the authors learned that one of the largest studies on which this analysis was based was withdrawn due to fraudulent data; additional problems have emerged regarding other studies included in the original paper. An editorial Expression of Concern was first published under this record as the authors revised their analysis for resubmission.

The authors submitted and published a corrected version of the analysis with commentary on assessing trial quality while creating meta-analyses, available to read in OFID: “Ivermectin for COVID-19: Addressing Potential Bias and Medical Fraud” by Hill et al., https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofab645. The original analysis has been retracted.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial reproduction and distribution of the work, in any medium, provided the original work is not altered or transformed in any way, and that the work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com

Comments

7 Comments
El Gazzar removal and analsyis modification
11 September 2021
ajh903@gmail.com
None
Removing the El Gazzar pre-print changes the mortality outcomes to 3.82% (33/864) in the Ivermectin group and 7.995% (69/863) in the control group. Hazard ratio of 0.47 thus 53% reduction in mortality.
Submitted on 11/09/2021 2:04 AM GMT
Studies chosen
1 September 2021
Shannon Smith
WVU
Thank you so much for your work on this analysis. I'd love to better understand how the 24 randomized clinical trials were chosen when there appears to be 31 RCT. I appreciate you helping me understand.
Submitted on 01/09/2021 8:04 PM GMT
There was no significant difference between ivermectin and control..?
31 August 2021
fredie.bianchi@gmail.com
Fredie Bianchi
On Effects on Survival, the study showed that we had almost three times more deaths in the control arms than ivermectin arms. Even with this result, the conclusion is "There was no significant difference between ivermectin and control in the severe subgroup"? I believe this difference is significant, almost 10% died in the control arms. It sounds significant to me.
Submitted on 31/08/2021 6:37 PM GMT
Meta-analysis on adverse events
4 August 2021
lundstromholger@gmail.com
University of Lucerne
As an addendum to the previous comment referencing the meta-analysis about adverse events:

There was a mistake in quoting the number. It was not reference 21, but reference 20. The paper is called "Safety of high-dose ivermectin: a systematic review and meta-analysis"

https://doi.org/10.1093/jac/dkz524
Submitted on 04/08/2021 1:19 PM GMT
Most concerning
28 July 2021
mdmurray17@btopenworld.com
University of Glasgow
I agree that there is significant doubt cast on one of the studies which includes almost two thirds of its patients as having mild to moderate COVID.
In the Bangladeshi study it included only sixty patients in total and none had severe disease.
Sadly any publications is being held as irrefutable proof of its effectiveness and no doubt the removal from even pre print publication will be heralded as censorship and the coordinated effort of "big pharma" to gain financially.
Submitted on 28/07/2021 4:47 PM GMT
Re-analysis needed after retraction of Elgazzar et al?
16 July 2021
Christopher Darlow
University of Liverpool
Thank you to the authors for the interesting meta-analysis.

Are the authors aware of the the retraction of the pre-print by Elgazzar et al. (https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-100956/v1) over concerns of potential scientific fraud and breach of ethical conduct? This study was the largest study by patient number included in the meta-analysis, and also had the largest drug effect. Given the outsize effect this would have on the meta-analysis and concerns of the scientific integrity of this study, will the authors consider revising their analysis with this study excluded from the meta-analysis?
Submitted on 16/07/2021 9:54 AM GMT
No evidence for meta-analysis on adverse events
9 July 2021
Susan Oliver
UNSW
The manuscript makes the claim: "A recent meta-analysis found no significant difference in adverse events in those given
higher doses of ivermectin, of up to 2mg/kg, and those receiving longer courses, of up to 4 days, compared to those receiving standard doses. [21]" The reference provided, however, is not a meta-analysis. It is a review paper that currently has an editor's note that the conclusions of the paper are subject to criticisms that are being considered by the editors and the publisher.
Submitted on 09/07/2021 11:58 PM GMT
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