Cancer statistics, 2013^†

Incidence and Mortality Data

Mortality data from 1930 to 2009 in the United States were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS).1, 2 There are several sources for cancer incidence data. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute reports long-term (beginning in 1973), high-quality, population-based incidence data covering up to 26% of the US population. Cancer incidence rates for long-term trends (1975-2009), 5-year relative and cause-specific survival rates (2002-2008), and estimations of the lifetime probability of developing cancer (2007-2009) were obtained from SEER registries.3-6 The North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) compiles and reports incidence data from 1995 onward for cancer registries that participate in the SEER program or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR). Incidence data for state-level rates (2005-2009), trends by race/ethnicity (2000-2009), and estimated new cancer cases in 2013 were obtained from NAACCR.7 Cancer cases were classified according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology.8 All incidence and death rates are age-standardized to the 2000 US standard population and expressed per 100,000 persons.

Cancer incidence rates in this report are delay-adjusted whenever possible in order to account for anticipated future corrections to registry data due to inherent delays and errors in case reporting. Delay-adjusted rates primarily affect the most recent years of data for cancers that are frequently diagnosed in outpatient settings (eg, melanoma, leukemia, and prostate) and provide a more accurate portrayal of the cancer burden in the most recent time period.9 For example, melanoma incidence rates adjusted for delays in reporting are 14% higher than unadjusted rates in the most recent reporting year. Delay-adjusted rates are available for SEER registry data and were obtained from the National Cancer Institute. Incidence trends presented for the most recent 5 years (2005-2009) are based on delay-adjusted rates from SEER 13 cancer registries.4

Projected Cancer Cases and Deaths in 2013

The precise number of cancer cases diagnosed each year in the nation and in every state is unknown because cancer registration is incomplete in some states. Furthermore, the most recent year for which incidence and mortality data are available lags 3 to 4 years behind the current year due to the time required for data collection, compilation, quality control, and dissemination. Therefore, we project the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in the United States in 2013 in order to provide an estimate of the contemporary cancer burden. The methods for projecting both new cases and deaths in the current year were recently modified so estimates should not be compared from year to year.

We projected the number of new invasive cancer cases that will be diagnosed in 2013 (with the exception of urinary bladder, for which in situ cases are included) using a 2-step process that first estimates complete incidence counts by state during years for which observed data are available, and then projects these counts 4 years ahead for the United States overall and each state individually.10 To estimate counts for each state through 2009, we used a spatiotemporal model based on incidence data for 1995 through 2009 from 49 states and the District of Columbia that met NAACCR's high-quality data standard for incidence, covering about 98% of the US population.11 (Minnesota cancer registry data could not be included in the model because county-level data were unavailable.) This method accounts for expected delays in case reporting and considers geographic variations in sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, medical settings, and cancer screening behaviors as predictors of incidence. A temporal projection method (the vector autoregressive model) was then applied to the estimated counts to obtain projections for 2013. For the complete details of this methodology, please refer to Zhu et al.10

To estimate the numbers of new breast carcinoma in situ (female) and melanoma in situ cases in 2013, we first estimated the number of in situ cases occurring annually from 2000 through 2009 in the United States by applying the age-specific incidence rates in the 18 SEER areas to the corresponding US population estimates provided in SEER*Stat.12 We then projected the total number of cases in 2013 based on the annual percent change from 2000 through 2009 generated by the joinpoint regression model.13

We estimated the number of cancer deaths expected to occur in 2013 in the United States overall and in each state using the joinpoint regression model based on the actual numbers of cancer deaths from 1995 through 2009 at the state and national levels as reported to the NCHS.1 For the complete details of this methodology, please refer to Chen et al.14

Other Statistics

The estimated numbers of cancer deaths averted in men and women due to the reduction in overall cancer death rates were calculated by applying the 5-year age-specific cancer death rates in the peak year for age-standardized cancer death rates (1990 in men and 1991 in women) to the corresponding age-specific populations in the subsequent years through 2009 to obtain the number of expected deaths in each calendar year if the death rates had not decreased. We then summed the difference between the number of expected and observed deaths in each age group and calendar year for men and women separately.

Expected Numbers of New Cancer Cases

Table 1 presents the estimated numbers of new cases of invasive cancer expected among men and women in the United States in 2013. The overall estimate of more than 1.6 million new cases does not include carcinoma in situ of any site except urinary bladder, nor does it include basal cell or squamous cell cancers of the skin. About 64,640 cases of breast carcinoma in situ and 61,300 cases of melanoma in situ are expected to be newly diagnosed in 2013. The estimated numbers of new cancer cases by state for selected cancer sites are shown in Table 2.

Figure 1 indicates the most common cancers expected to occur in men and women in 2013. Among men, cancers of the prostate, lung and bronchus, and colorectum will account for about 50% of all newly diagnosed cancers; prostate cancer alone will account for 28% (238,590) of incident cases in men. The 3 most commonly diagnosed types of cancer among women in 2013 will be breast, lung and bronchus, and colorectum, accounting for 51% of estimated cancer cases in women. Breast cancer alone is expected to account for 29% (232,340) of all new cancer cases among women.

Expected Numbers of Cancer Deaths

Table 1 also shows the expected numbers of deaths from cancer projected for 2013. It is estimated that about 580,350 Americans will die from cancer this year, corresponding to almost 1600 deaths per day. Cancers of the lung and bronchus, prostate, and colorectum in men and cancers of the lung and bronchus, breast, and colorectum in women continue to be the most common causes of cancer death. These 4 cancers account for almost half (48%) of the total cancer deaths among men and women (Fig. 1). In 2013, lung cancer is expected to account for 26% of all female cancer deaths and 28% of all male cancer deaths. Table 3 provides the estimated numbers of cancer deaths in 2013 by state for selected cancer sites.

Lifetime Probability of Developing Cancer

The lifetime probability of being diagnosed with an invasive cancer is higher for men (45%) than for women (38%) (Table 4). However, because of the earlier median age at diagnosis for breast cancer compared with other major cancers, women have a slightly higher probability of developing cancer before age 60 years. These estimates are based on the average experience of the general population and may over- or underestimate individual risk because of differences in exposure (eg, smoking history) and/or genetic susceptibility.

Trends in Cancer Incidence

Figures 2-5 depict long-term trends in cancer incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for selected cancer sites by sex. While incidence rates are declining for most cancer sites, they are increasing among both men and women for melanoma of the skin and cancers of the liver and thyroid (Fig. 3, Table 5). Table 5 shows incidence (delay-adjusted) and mortality trends for all cancers combined and for selected cancer sites based on joinpoint regression analysis. Joinpoint is a tool used to describe and quantify trends by fitting observed rates to lines connected at “joinpoints” where trends change in direction or magnitude.13, 15 According to data from the SEER 13 cancer registries, incidence rates in the most recent 5 years (2005-2009) decreased in males by 0.6% per year and were stable in females (Table 5). Incidence rates are decreasing for all 4 major cancer sites except female breast, for which rates remained relatively stable from 2005 to 2009 after decreasing by 2% per year from 1999 to 2005. Lung cancer incidence rates in women began declining in the late 1990s, more than a decade after the decline began in men.6 Differences in lung cancer incidence patterns between men and women reflect historical differences in tobacco use; cigarette smoking prevalence peaked about 20 years later in women than in men.16 Recent rapid declines in colorectal cancer incidence rates have largely been attributed to increases in screening that can detect and allow the removal of precancerous polyps.17-19 Although joinpoint trend analysis shows that the incidence rate for prostate cancer declined steadily by 1.9% per year from 2000 to 2009, it is important to realize that annual rates fluctuate widely (Fig. 3), likely reflecting variation in the prevalence of prostate-specific antigen testing for the detection of prostate cancer. For example, in the SEER 13 areas, the delay-adjusted prostate cancer incidence rate increased from 154 (per 100,000) to 164 from 2005 to 2006, then dropped from 168 to 153 from 2007 to 2008.

Trends in Cancer Mortality

Cancer death rates decreased by 1.8% per year in males and by 1.5% per year in females during the most recent 5 years of data (2005-2009). These declines have been consistent since 2001 and 2002 in men and women, respectively, and are larger in magnitude than those occurring in the previous decade (Table 5). Death rates peaked in men in 1990 (279.8 per 100,000), in women in 1991 (175.3 per 100,000), and overall in 1991 (215.1 per 100,000). Between 1990/1991 and 2009, cancer death rates decreased 24% in men, 16% in women, and 20% overall. Figure 6 shows that as a result of almost two decades of consistent declines in cancer death rates, about 1,177,300 cancer deaths were averted, 152,900 of these in 2009 alone.

Death rates continue to decrease for the 4 major cancer sites (Figs. 4 and 5). Over the past two decades of data, death rates have decreased from their peak by more than 30% for cancers of the colorectum, female breast, and male lung, and by more than 40% for prostate cancer. The decrease in lung cancer death rates—among men since 1990 and among women since 2002—is due to the reduction in tobacco use,20 while the decrease in death rates for female breast, colorectal, and prostate cancers largely reflects improvements in early detection and/or treatment.17, 21, 22 Over the past 10 years of data (2000-2009), the largest annual declines in death rates were for chronic myeloid leukemia (8.4%), cancers of the stomach (3.1%) and colorectum (3.0%), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (3.0%).

Recorded Number of Deaths From Cancer in 2009

A total of 2,437,163 deaths were recorded in the United States in 2009, 567,628 of these from cancer.23 Cancer is the second leading cause of death, following heart disease, accounting for 23% of all deaths. However, within 20-year age groups, cancer is the leading cause of death among both men and women aged 40 to 79 years (Table 6).

Table 7 presents the numbers of deaths for all cancers combined and for the 5 most common sites for each 20-year age group. Among males, leukemia is the leading cause of cancer death among those aged younger than 40 years, while lung cancer ranks first among men aged 40 years and older. Among females, tumors of the brain and other nervous system are the leading cause of cancer death among children and adolescents (aged younger than 20 years), breast cancer ranks first among women aged 20 to 59 years, and lung cancer causes the most cancer deaths in those aged 60 years and older.

Regional Variations in Cancer Rates

Tables 8 and 9 depict cancer incidence and death rates for selected cancers by state. Lung cancer shows the largest geographic variation in cancer occurrence by far, reflecting the large historical and continuing differences in smoking prevalence among states.20 For example, lung cancer incidence rates in Kentucky, which has historically had the highest smoking prevalence, are almost 4-fold higher than those in Utah, which has the lowest smoking prevalence (128 vs 34 cases per 100,000 men). In contrast, state variations for other cancer sites are smaller in both absolute and proportionate terms. For example, the breast cancer incidence rate in Connecticut, which has the highest rate (137 per 100,000 women), is only 28% higher than that in Arizona, which has the lowest rate (107 per 100,000 women). For cancers that can be detected by screening or other testing practices, such as those of the prostate, female breast, and colorectum, state variation in incidence rates reflects differences in the utilization of these tests as well as differences in disease occurrence.

Cancer Survival

African Americans are less likely to survive cancer than whites. The 5-year relative survival is lower among African Americans for every stage of diagnosis for nearly every type of cancer (Fig. 7). These disparities may result from inequalities in access to and receipt of quality health care and/or from differences in comorbidities. As shown in Figure 8, African Americans are less likely than whites to be diagnosed with cancer at a localized stage, when treatment is usually less extensive and more successful. The extent to which factors other than stage at diagnosis contribute to the overall survival differential is unclear.28 A study of Medicare-insured patients showed that African Americans remain less likely than whites to receive standard cancer therapies for lung, breast, colorectal, and prostate cancers.29 Some studies suggest that African Americans who receive cancer treatment and medical care similar to that of whites experience similar outcomes.30

There have been notable improvements in survival over the past 3 decades for most cancers for both whites and African Americans (Table 12). Between 1975 to 1977 and 2002 to 2008, overall 5-year relative survival rates increased 19% among whites and 21% among African Americans. The largest improvements in survival have been for leukemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, while cancers of the lung and pancreas have shown the least improvement.

Relative survival rates cannot be calculated for some minority populations because accurate life expectancies are not available. Comparison of cause-specific survival rates of cancer patients diagnosed from 2002 to 2008 in SEER registry areas of the United States indicate that all minority male populations have a greater probability than whites of dying from cancer within 5 years of diagnosis, although the difference is small for Hispanic men.6 In contrast, among women, Asian Americans/Pacific Islanders (69.1%) and Hispanics (67.2%) have the highest 5-year cause-specific survival, followed by whites (66.2%), American Indians/Alaska Natives (60.6%), and African Americans (57.6%). Minority populations are generally more likely than non-Hispanic whites to be diagnosed at a distant stage of disease for all 4 major cancer sites.31