ARTICLE
Plague and long-term development: the lasting effects of the 1629–30 epidemic on the Italian cities†
Guido Alfani,
Marco Percoco,
Guido Alfani
Department of Social and Political Sciences, Università Bocconi, Dondena Centre, and Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research
Search for more papers by this authorMarco Percoco
Department of Social and Political Sciences, Università Bocconi, GREEN—Research Center in Geography, Resources, Environment, Energy and Networks
Search for more papers by this author
Guido Alfani,
Marco Percoco,
Guido Alfani
Department of Social and Political Sciences, Università Bocconi, Dondena Centre, and Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research
Search for more papers by this authorMarco Percoco
Department of Social and Political Sciences, Università Bocconi, GREEN—Research Center in Geography, Resources, Environment, Energy and Networks
Search for more papers by this author
†
We thank Samuel K. Cohn, Luca Mocarelli, and the anonymous referees and editors of the Economic History Review, as well as seminar participants at Bocconi University, for their many helpful comments.
Abstract
This article aims to analyse the effects of plague on the long-term development of Italian cities, with particular attention to the 1629–30 epidemic. By using a new dataset on plague mortality rates in 56 cities covering the period c. 1575–1700, an economic geography model verifying the existence of multiple equilibria is estimated. It is found that cities severely affected by the 1629–30 plague were displaced to a lower growth path. It is also found that plague caused long-lasting damage to the size of Italian urban populations and to urbanization rates. These findings support the hypothesis that seventeenth-century plagues played a fundamental role in triggering the process of relative decline of the Italian economies.
Supporting Information
| Filename | Description |
|---|---|
| ehr12652-sup-0001-OnlineAppendix.docx19.9 KB | Table S1. The combined effect of the plague in the Republic of Venice versus other cities (IV estimates; second stage; only cities in the centre-north) |
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