Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Apr 27 2024 - 12Z Mon Apr 29 2024

...A very active weekend in store for parts of the Central U.S....

...Excessive Rainfall and Severe Weather concerns from Southern Plains to
Mississippi Valley...

...Critical Fire Weather Risk over portions of the Southern High Plains...

...Warmer than average temperatures spreads from Midwest into Mid-Atlantic
on Sunday while well below average temperatures shift from the Four
Corners and Rockies into the Northern Plains...


A highly amplified and slow-moving upper-level pattern will support a very
active period across the Central U.S. this weekend. Today, thunderstorms
will develop along a cold front and dryline extending north-south across
the Southern Plains and along a quasi-stationary front draped across the
Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Midwest. The Storm Prediction
Center issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms across
parts of the Southern/Central Plains, where large hail, damaging winds and
multiple tornadoes will be possible. Some of these storms may produce
intense rainfall rates at times, which could cause flash flooding of
roads, underpasses and urban areas. There's a Moderate Risk (at least 40%)
of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley today. Gusty winds
and very low dew points will support fire weather concerns on the western
side of the aforementioned dry-line. The Storm Prediction Center issued a
Critical Risk of Fires over much of the Southern High Plains as a result.

The focus for Excessive Rainfall and Severe Storms will expand in coverage
into the Mississippi Valley on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes from east Texas into the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Some of these storms may be capable of wringing out
several inches of rain over vulnerable surfaces--from today's storms.
Thus, another Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall is in
effect for the ArkLaTex on Sunday. Continued dry and windy conditions over
the southern periphery of the slow-moving upper trough axis will support
another Critical Fire Weather day across much of the Southern High Plains
on Sunday.

Meanwhile, cold continental air will pour into the Rockies on the backside
of the amplified upper trough and interact with Pacific and Gulf moisture
to produce heavy snow over portions of the Colorado Rockies today.
Snowfall totals of 8-12 inches are likely with isolated higher amounts
possible over higher elevations. Cooler air spreads east into the Northern
Plains on Sunday behind the ascendant and negatively tilting upper trough
trudging through the Plains. Strong southerly flow into the Mississippi
Valley and Midwest today will see high temperatures climb into the 70s and
80s, which is well above average for some places. Cool and cloudy
conditions over the Mid-Atlantic today should give way to the warmer
conditions on Sunday.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php