-
Combining the strengths of Dutch survey and register data in a data ch...
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The Effects of Group Composition and Dynamics on Collective Performanc...
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Foreign Sponsorship of Armed Groups and Civil War
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The Changing Face of Nuclear Proliferation
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Shifting sands: How change-point and community detection can enrich ou...
-
The Queens’ gambit: Women leadership, gender expectations, and interst...
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Introducing a global dataset on conflict forecasts and news topics
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Network analysis in peace and state building: revealing power elites
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Prediction of Future Nation-initiated Cyberattacks from News-based Pol...
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Predicting armed conflict using protest data
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An Empirical Evaluation of Explanations for Political System Support
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Leakage and the reproducibility crisis in machine-learning-based scien...
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Criminal justice from a public choice perspective: an introduction to ...
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Natural Resource Exploitation and Military Spending
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An automated pattern recognition system for conflict
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A theory of jihadist beheadings
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Democratization as an impetus for peace talks in civil wars
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Internal Conflicts and Shocks. A Narrative Meta-Analysis
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How Mechanization Shapes Coups
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Choosing tactics: The efficacy of violence and nonviolence in self-det...
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Climate-driven risks to peace over the 21st century
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Michael D. Ward (1948–2021) and the road to space, networks and geogra...
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The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention
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Public and Private Information in International Crises: Diplomatic Cor...
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When the levee breaks: A forecasting model of violent and nonviolent d...
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Oil discoveries, civil war, and preventive state repression
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Reversals of fortune: Shared governance, “democracy,” and reiterated p...
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The security implications of transnational population movements: A met...
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Tipping Points: Challenges in Analyzing International Crisis Escalatio...
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One without the Other? Prediction and Policy in International Studies
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Predictive model assessment and selection in composite-based modeling ...
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Forecasting conflict using a diverse machine-learning ensemble: Ensemb...
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Forecasting conflict in Africa with automated machine learning systems
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Conflict forecasting with event data and spatio-temporal graph convolu...
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Click, click boom: Using Wikipedia data to predict changes in battle-r...
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Lessons from an escalation prediction competition
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Forecasting change in conflict fatalities with dynamic elastic net
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Mobile phone data reveal the effects of violence on internal displacem...
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The Effect of Migration on Political Support for Co-ethnics: Evidence ...
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Geopolitical risk spillovers and its determinants
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Latent territorial threat and democratic regime reversals
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Supporting rebels and hosting refugees: Explaining the variation in re...
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Welcoming the Unwelcome: Refugee Flows, Refugee Rights, and Political ...
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[W]hat Lies Beneath: Using Latent Networks to Improve Spatial Predicti...
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Indirect Governance at War: Delegation and Orchestration in Rebel Supp...
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Sequencing United Nations peacemaking: Political initiatives and peace...
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Weather variability and conflict forecasts: Dynamic human-environment ...
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Floods, communal conflict and the role of local state institutions in ...
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Lesson (un)replicated: Predicting levels of political violence in Afgh...
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Spikes and Variance: Using Google Trends to Detect and Forecast Protes...
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Climatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration
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Mass Atrocities and Their Prevention
-
A New Case for the Study of Individual Events in Political Science
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Genocide, Politicide, and the Prospects of Democratization since 1900
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Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Fore...
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Economic governance and homicide: Some theory and empirics, 1990–2017
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Validating Game-Theoretic Models of Terrorism: Insights from Machine L...
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Reassessing the Role of Theory and Machine Learning in Forecasting Civ...
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Integrating explanation and prediction in computational social science
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The colonial roots of structural coup-proofing
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Prevention Is Better Than Cure: Machine Learning Approach to Conflict ...
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Expanding the scope of reproducibility research through data analysis ...
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Prediction: Coveted, Yet Forsaken? Introducing a Cross‐Validated Predi...
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Elite Competition, Local Extraction, and Social Unrest: Understanding ...
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Conflict Environments and Civil War Onset
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Data science at farm level: Explaining and predicting within-farm vari...
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Why do some poor countries see armed conflict while others do not? A d...
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United Nations peace initiatives 1946-2015: introducing a new dataset
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Climate variability, crop and conflict: Exploring the impacts of spati...
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Simplified complexity: Analytical strategies for conflict event resear...
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Survey and Gap Analysis on Event Prediction of English Unstructured Te...
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Political Exclusion, Lost Autonomy, and Escalating Conflict over Self-...
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A Conditional Model of Local Income Shock and Civil Conflict
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Peace Above the Glass Ceiling: The Historical Relationship between Fem...
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Who Wants Peace? Predicting Civilian Preferences in Conflict Negotiati...
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Forecasting Civil Wars: Theory and Structure in an Age of “Big Data” a...
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What influences windpower decisions? A statistical analysis of licensi...
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The Future is a Moving Target: Predicting Political Instability
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Timing matters: The impact of regularity of election cycles on autocra...
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Revisiting the Contested Role of Natural Resources in Violent Conflict...
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The opportunity cost of intrastate violence and the out-of-sample vali...
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Battle Diffusion Matters: Examining the Impact of Microdynamics of Fig...
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International conflict and cooperation over freshwater resources
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The Joint Effect of International and Domestic-Level State Capacity on...
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Comparing supervised learning algorithms and artificial neural network...
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The Global Conflict Risk Index: A quantitative tool for policy support...
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Are Western-Educated Leaders Less Prone to Initiate Militarized Disput...
-
United Nations peacekeeping and terrorism: short-term risks and long-t...
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Does cultural proximity contain terrorism diffusion?
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The hunger games: Food prices, ethnic cleavages and nonviolent unrest ...
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A Cross-National Analysis of Forced Population Resettlement in Counter...
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Civil Society and the Democratic Peace
-
Advances in Data on Conflict and Dissent
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Forecasting
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Modeling and Forecasting Armed Conflict: AutoML with Human-Guided Mach...
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Examining repressive and oppressive state violence using the Ill-Treat...
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Does Ethnolinguistic Diversity Preclude Good Governance? A Comparative...
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Just Say No to p < x (∀ x ...
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On prediction in political science
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On climate and conflict: Precipitation decline and communal conflict i...
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Improving Supreme Court Forecasting Using Boosted Decision Trees
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Terror per Capita
-
Information, Secrecy, and Civilian Targeting
-
Empirical Methods for Remote Sensing of Nitrogen in Drylands May Lead ...
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Comparing Classification Trees to Discern Patterns of Terrorism*
-
Generalized Additive Modeling Combined With Multiple Collinear for ICM...
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Nowhere to go? Why do some civil wars generate more refugees than othe...
-
ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system
-
Choosing Whom to Target: Horizontal Inequality and the Risk of Civil a...
-
Conclusion
-
The exacerbating effect of police presence: A multivariate point proce...
-
Seeing the Forest through the Trees
-
Political Exclusion, Lost Autonomy, and Escalating Conflict over Self-...
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Maximum Likelihood for Social Science
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Forecasting candidate states’ compliance with EU accession rules, 2017...
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Did Radio RTLM Really Contribute Meaningfully to the Rwandan Genocide?...
-
An empirical and comparative analysis of E-government performance meas...
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Delegating Terror: Principal–Agent Based Decision Making in State Spon...
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Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using News...
-
Social networks and citizen election forecasting: The more friends the...
-
Enhancing Validity in Observational Settings When Replication is Not P...
-
State Capacity, Insurgency, and Civil War: A Disaggregated Analysis
-
Power, proximity, and democracy...
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Forecasting
-
Forecasting
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Civil War as State-Making: Strategic Governance in Civil War
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Superpower Surrogacy and the Onset and Duration of Civil War: A Direct...
-
Reassessing the Democratic Peace: A Novel Test Based on the Varieties ...
-
Peace Above the Glass Ceiling: The Historical Relationship Between Fem...
-
Conflict forecasting and its limits
-
Presidential Partisanship in Government Formation: Do Presidents Favor...
-
Climate Change, the Economy, and Conflict
-
Introduction to Special Issue: Disciplinary Perspectives on Climate Ch...
-
Theme and Variations...
-
The networked peace...
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Public opinion and environmental policy output: a cross-national analy...
-
Dynamics and Logics of Civil War
-
The Bar Fight Theory of International Conflict: Regime Type, Coalition...
-
Mass Killing
-
Occupy this: why some colleges had Occupy Wall Street protests
-
Could rebel child soldiers prolong civil wars?
-
Means to an end: Pro-government militias as a predictive indicator of ...
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Employing the shared socioeconomic pathways to predict CO 2 emissions
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Enforcing order: Territorial reach and maritime piracy
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Regions at Risk: Predicting Conflict Zones in African Insurgencies
-
Political Mobilization and Government Targeting: When Do Dissidents Ch...
-
Aiming at the Wrong Targets: The Domestic Consequences of Internationa...
-
The Political Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Firm-Level ...
-
State Capacity, Inequality and Inter-Group Violence in Sub-Saharan Afr...
-
What Can We Learn from Predictive Modeling?
-
Lessons from near real-time forecasting of irregular leadership change...
-
Subnational violent conflict forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa, 2015–65...
-
Do the robot...
-
Financing rebellion...
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Predicting local violence: Evidence from a panel survey in Liberia
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The shape of things to come? Expanding the inequality and grievance mo...
-
Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap...
-
Introduction: Forecasting in peace research
-
New Evidence for a Positive Relationship between De Facto Judicial Ind...
-
Strategic Foresight – Die Zukunft antizipieren
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Predicting armed conflict: Time to adjust our expectations?
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Can Structural Conditions Explain the Onset of Nonviolent Uprisings?
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Renewable Natural Resource Shocks and Conflict Intensity...
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Can civilian attitudes predict insurgent violence? Ideology and insurg...
-
Quantitative Methoden in den Internationalen Beziehungen
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Can economic interests trump ethnic hostility? Trading ties versus out...
-
Conflict Forecasting and Its Limits
-
Models Versus Rankings: Forecasting Political Violence
-
Improving the Early Warning Function of Civil War Onset Models Using A...
-
Predicting Conflict Events in Africa at Subnational Level
-
The “New” Normal: Instability Risk Assessment in an Uncertainty-Based ...
-
Conflict Studies and Causality: Critical Realism and the Nomothetic/Id...
-
Rethinking the training of intelligence analysts
-
Political party formation by former armed opposition groups after civi...
-
The Politics of Urban Bias: Rural Threats and the Dual Dilemma of Poli...
-
Examining Explanations for Nuclear Proliferation
-
Richardson Models with Space
-
Do child soldiers influence UN Peacekeeping?
-
Cues to Coup Plotters: Elections as Coup Triggers in Dictatorships
-
Peace from the past...
-
Food imports, international prices, and violence in Africa
-
Riots
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Modeling the coevolution of international and domestic institutions...
-
Shared Cultural History as a Predictor of Political and Economic Chang...
-
External threats and political survival: Can dispute involvement deter...
-
Taking Foreign Policy Personally: Personal Values and Foreign Policy A...
-
Two sword lengths apart...
-
Simulating the Past for Understanding the Present. A Critical Review
-
Irregular leadership changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-...
-
Comparing Random Forest with Logistic Regression for Predicting Class-...
-
Predicting Local Violence: Evidence from a Panel Survey in Liberia
-
A Closer Look at Reporting Bias in Conflict Event Data
-
How Civil Wars Help Explain Organized Crime—and How They Do Not
-
Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in S...
-
Why significant variables aren’t automatically good predictors
-
Geography, Outcome, and Casualties: A Unified Model of Insurgency
-
Making useful conflict predictions...
-
Unequal We Fight: Between- and Within-Group Inequality and Ethnic Civi...
-
Risk Mitigation, Regime Security, and Militias: Beyond Coup-proofing
-
Uncovering patterns among latent variables: human rights and de facto ...
-
Calibrating ensemble forecasting models with sparse data in the social...
-
The wisdom of crowds: Applying Condorcet’s jury theorem to forecasting...
-
Testing What Matters (If You Must Test at All): A Context‐Driven Appro...
-
Improving Governance for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: ...
-
Elite Co-optation, Repression, and Coups in Autocracies
-
Religion and Conflict: Explaining the Puzzling Case of “Islamic Violen...
-
Communication networks and the transnational spread of ethnic conflict
-
From Media Attention to Negotiated Peace: Human Rights Reporting and C...
-
Anticipating mediated talks...
-
Population Attitudes and the Spread of Political Violence in Sub-Sahar...
-
A dangerous discrepancy...
-
Whither the Weather?
-
Climate Change and Conflict
-
Oil and the ‘new wars’: another look at the resource curse using alter...
-
Modeling Latent Information in Voting Data with Dirichlet Process Prio...
-
The New Barbary Wars: Forecasting Maritime Piracy
-
Climate and Conflict: Whence the Weather?
-
Forecasting Climate-Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Paucity of Predi...
-
Whatever Explains Whatever: The Duhem-Quine Thesis and Conventional Qu...
-
Uncovering Patterns Among Latent Variables: Human Rights and De Facto ...
-
Gewalt und Krieg
-
The Two-Way Street of Acculturation, Discrimination, and Latino Immigr...
-
When “the facts” become a text reinterpreting war with Serbian war vet...
-
Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on the risk of vi...
-
Incentives and opportunities...
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Do IMF programs disrupt ethnic peace? An empirical analysis, 1985–2006
-
Ensemble forecasting of irregular leadership change
-
Demand, supply, and restraint: Determinants of domestic water conflict...
-
Basins at Risk: Predicting International River Basin Conflict and Coop...
-
Evaluating forecasts of political conflict dynamics
-
Implications of hydro-political dependency for international water coo...
-
An Empirical Evaluation of Explanations for State Repression
-
Number of People in the United States Experiencing Ambulatory and Inde...
-
Will we see helping hands? Predicting civil war mediation and likely s...
-
Predicting the duration of the Syrian insurgency
-
An unbiased model comparison test using cross-validation
-
Square Pegs in Round Holes: Inequalities, Grievances, and Civil War
-
Do natural resources matter for interstate and intrastate armed confli...
-
Data and progress in peace and conflict research
-
Seven deadly sins of contemporary quantitative political analysis
-
Does the IMF cause civil war? A comment
-
On climate variability and civil war in Asia
-
Grievances, economic wealth, and civil conflict
-
Early warning signals for war in the news
-
Forecasting military expenditure
-
Quantitative Methoden in den Internationalen Beziehungen
-
Not by the Sword Alone: Soft Power, Mass Media, and the Production of ...
-
When Forecasts Fail: Unpredictability in Israeli-Palestinian Interacti...
-
The Triggers of War: Disentangling the Spark from the Powder Keg
-
Can Civilian Attitudes Predict Civil War Violence?
-
Enhancing Validity in Observational Settings When Replication is Not P...
-
Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist ...
-
A configurational analysis of ethnic protest in Europe
-
Forecasting the onset of genocide and politicide...
-
Prediction of Intrastate Conflict Using State Structural Factors and E...
-
Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010-2050 1
-
Choosing Your Neighbors: Networks of Diffusion in International Relati...
-
Shifting sands...
-
Why do poor countries suffer costly conflict? Unpacking per capita inc...
-
Gendered Jobs: Integrating Immigrants versus Controlling Immigration i...
-
An urbanization bomb? Population growth and social disorder in cities
-
Forecasting is difficult, especially about the future...
-
UN peace operations and protection of civilians...
-
Data-based Computational Approaches to Forecasting Political Violence
-
What Friends are Made of: Bilateral Linkages and Domestic Drivers of F...
-
Standing the Test of Time: The Breadth of Majority Coalitions and the ...
-
Predictive non-equilibrium social science
-
Enter The Dragon! An Empirical Analysis of Chinese versus US Arms Tran...
-
Early warning analysis for social diffusion events
-
Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990–2009
-
Globalization and Political Violence, 1970–2008
-
Micro‐Level Interpretation of Exponential Random Graph Models with App...
-
Immigration Crackdown in the American Workplace...
-
Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict
-
Improving Predictions using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging
-
Forecasting the Onset of Genocide and Politicide: Annual Out-of-Sample...
-
Two Sword Lengths: Losers' Consent and Violence in National Legislatur...
-
Forecasting Onsets of Mass Killing
-
Health, Need and Politics: The Determinants of Bilateral HIV/AIDS Assi...
-
The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Bin...
-
Another Misadventure of Economists in the Tropics? Social Diversity, C...
-
Forecasting in International Relations: One Quest, Three Approaches
-
Simulating the Effect of Peacekeeping Operations 2010–2035
-
The Political Economy of War and Peace
-
An Unbiased Model Comparison Test Using Cross-Validation
-
Micro-Level Interpretation of Exponential Random Graph Models with App...
-
The Theoretical Value of Forecasting in Political Science
-
Exploring the Past, Anticipating the Future: A Symposium
-
Seven Deadly Sins of Contemporary Quantitative Political Analysis