Anthropic Shadow: Observation Selection Effects and Human Extinction Risks
Milan M. Ćirković,
Anders Sandberg,
Nick Bostrom,
Corresponding Author
Milan M. Ćirković
Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade, Volgina, Belgrade, Serbia.
Address correspondence to M. M. Ćirković, Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade, Volgina 7, 11160 Belgrade-74, Serbia; tel: +381-11-3089079; fax: +381-11-2419553; [email protected].Search for more papers by this authorAnders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute, Faculty of Philosophy & James Martin 21st Century School, Oxford University, London, UK.
Search for more papers by this authorNick Bostrom
Future of Humanity Institute, Faculty of Philosophy & James Martin 21st Century School, Oxford University, London, UK.
Search for more papers by this author
Milan M. Ćirković,
Anders Sandberg,
Nick Bostrom,
Corresponding Author
Milan M. Ćirković
Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade, Volgina, Belgrade, Serbia.
Address correspondence to M. M. Ćirković, Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade, Volgina 7, 11160 Belgrade-74, Serbia; tel: +381-11-3089079; fax: +381-11-2419553; [email protected].Search for more papers by this authorAnders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute, Faculty of Philosophy & James Martin 21st Century School, Oxford University, London, UK.
Search for more papers by this authorNick Bostrom
Future of Humanity Institute, Faculty of Philosophy & James Martin 21st Century School, Oxford University, London, UK.
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
We describe a significant practical consequence of taking anthropic biases into account in deriving predictions for rare stochastic catastrophic events. The risks associated with catastrophes such as asteroidal/cometary impacts, supervolcanic episodes, and explosions of supernovae/gamma-ray bursts are based on their observed frequencies. As a result, the frequencies of catastrophes that destroy or are otherwise incompatible with the existence of observers are systematically underestimated. We describe the consequences of this anthropic bias for estimation of catastrophic risks, and suggest some directions for future work.
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