Hot and Cold: The Philippines’ Relations with China (and the United States)

Summary

In spring 2021, hundreds of Chinese fishing boats gathered at several South China Sea islets, most notably at Whitsun Reef, within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. Worried that China might use the boats, which were suspected of being part of its maritime militia, to permanently occupy the reef, the Philippines dispatched navy and coast guard ships to the area. When Beijing called on Manila to withdraw its ships, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte demurred, somewhat clumsily explaining: “I do not want a quarrel. I do not want trouble. I respect your position, and you respect mine… I will not withdraw. Even if you kill me. Our friendship will end here.” His secretary of foreign affairs, Teodoro Locsin, more clearly (and colorfully) responded to China on Twitter: “China, my friend, how politely can I put it? Let me see… O… GET THE F*** OUT.” For a moment, it seemed as if the Philippines was about to change its half-decade-long accommodative policy toward Beijing. Soon after, Duterte reverted to form. He barred Philippine government officials from publicly commenting on the South China Sea dispute, and Locsin obsequiously retreated from his remarks. Nevertheless, the episode put a spotlight on the frustration among even the most China-friendly Philippine leaders. Since taking office in 2016, Duterte has done all that he could to cozy up to China (even declaring himself its ally). He hoped that Beijing would reciprocate by shelving its maritime differences with Manila and helping to finance economic development in the Philippines. Unfortunately for Duterte, China has been not only more aggressive towards Philippine claims in the South China Sea, but also slow to invest in new industrial and infrastructure projects. Of course, Duterte is not the first Philippine leader to try an accommodative approach with China. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo also did so during her presidency from 2001 to 2010. By contrast, Benigno Aquino III, Duterte’s immediate predecessor, did precisely the opposite. He actively resisted Chinese encroachments on Philippine sovereignty as president from 2010 to 2016. As a result, Philippine relations with China have oscillated from one extreme to the other and back again. All three presidents faced the same strategic dilemma: How should a militarily weak Philippines deal with an ever more powerful China? Ultimately, Arroyo and Duterte crafted their strategies based on an acceptance of Philippine inferiority. Aquino, on the other hand, devised his by seeking ways to overcome it. Among the most important ways included not only his high-profile bid for the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) to dismiss China’s “nine-dash line” claim in the South China Sea, but also his not-so-glamorous work to resurrect the Philippine military’s external defense forces. Pitfalls of Accommodation Certainly, the Philippine military was never a priority for Arroyo. One can argue whether that was a cause or result of the series of military mutinies that dogged her administration. In either case, nearly a decade of neglect significantly weakened the Philippine military’s capacity for external defense. By the end of her presidency, the Philippine navy was reduced to only four operational offshore patrol vessels (none of which were equipped for modern naval combat), and the Philippine air force could field no aircraft capable of aerial combat. Absent any effective capability to protect Philippine maritime claims, Arroyo appeared to make an implicit bargain by exchanging a managed erosion of Philippine claims for economic development assistance from China. To that end, she devised an accord called the Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking (JMSU) that permitted the national oil companies of China, the Philippines, and Vietnam to cooperatively explore for energy resources in their disputed waters. The accord was structured in a way that suggested that Manila recognized the legitimacy of the other countries’ South China Sea claims, an admission that Beijing had long sought. Meanwhile, she signed some 65 bilateral agreements with China in all. Unfortunately for Arroyo, the JMSU never went into effect, running afoul of the Philippine constitution, which bars any compromise of national sovereignty. Moreover, her advocacy on behalf of Chinese companies, like ZTE, to build the Philippines’ national broadband network and a commuter railway led to criminal charges of graft against her. When Duterte became president, he seemed to take a page from Arroyo’s strategic playbook, albeit with visions of grander deals given the advent of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. After he took office, Duterte quickly sought to befriend China. He ended Aquino’s confrontational stance and “set aside” the PCA’s ruling, which offered greater international recognition to Philippine claims in the South China Sea as little more than “a piece of paper.” And, like Arroyo, he sought a deal with China to jointly explore for energy resources in the South China Sea. He even signed a memorandum of understanding with Beijing to that end in 2018, once again raising the prospect of joint energy development, however legally unfeasible, in the disputed waters. To further demonstrate his shift towards China, Duterte announced a “separation” from the United States. He ended joint Philippine-U.S. maritime patrols of the South China Sea and, for a time, joint Philippine-U.S. military exercises. He also ordered the American troops stationed in the Philippines out (a decision made easier after a botched U.S.-supported Philippine operation against Islamic terrorists there). Finally, in early 2020, he cancelled the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), which had allowed American troops to be deployed in the Philippines. Although he has since quietly granted two extensions to the VFA, Duterte has made no secret of his overall aim: He wants the Philippines to have a foreign policy that is truly independent of the United States. (Yet, a cynic might wonder whether his tight embrace of China would achieve any more than swapping one great-power benefactor for another.)

Creators/Authors

Felix K. Chang
Felix K. Chang is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He is also the Chief Operating Officer of DecisionQ, a predictive analytics company, and an assistant professor at the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences.