Barriers to Peace in Civil War
Civil wars vary greatly in their duration. This book argues that conflicts are longer when they involve more actors who can block agreement (veto players) and identifies specific problems that arise in multi-party bargaining. Quantitative analysis of over 200 civil wars since World War II reveals that conflicts with more of these actors last much longer than those with fewer. Detailed comparison of negotiations in Rwanda and Burundi demonstrates that multi-party negotiations present additional barriers to peace not found in two party conflicts. In addition, conflicts with more veto players produce more casualties, are more likely to involve genocide and are followed by shorter periods of peace. Because they present many barriers to peace, the international community has a poor track record of resolving multi-party conflicts. David Cunningham shows that resolution is possible in these wars if peace processes are designed to address the barriers that emerge in multi-party conflicts.
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Contents
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1 Introduction
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1 |
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2 A veto player theory of conflict bargaining
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23 |
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3 Testing the effect of veto players on duration
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63 |
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4 Bargaining and fighting in Rwanda and Burundi
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132 |
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5 The effects of veto players on conflict severity genocide and the duration of peace
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183 |
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6 Designing peace processes in multiparty civil wars
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202 |
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Common terms and phrases
Africa agenda analysis Angola argues argument Arusha Accords bargaining range battle deaths block agreement block settlement Burundi ceasefire Chapter CNDD-FDD CNDD-FDD and PALIPEHUTU-FNL coded conflict bargaining conflict resolution Congo Congo-Brazzaville Congolese continued coup Cox regressions Darfur dataset discussion duration of civil dynamics effect ethnic fractionalization example Fearon fighting genocide hazard ratio Hutu implementation incentives information asymmetries insurgent groups international actors international community International Crisis Group involved Iraq issues lenient measure lenient veto players longer Lusaka Lusaka Accords measure of veto military faction models MRND multi-party civil wars multi-party conflicts multiple Myanmar National negotiating table number of combatants number of veto PALIPEHUTU-FNL participants parties peace agreement peace process peacekeeping political politicide potential predictions preferences rebel groups resolve Rwanda Rwanda and Burundi settlement signed significant Somalia statistical strategy Strict veto players terrain tests Tutsi two-party Uganda veto player approach violence