Ecology Letters

Volume 12, Issue 6 p. 538-549

Geographical variation in predictors of mammalian extinction risk: big is bad, but only in the tropics

Susanne A. Fritz,

Corresponding Author

Susanne A. Fritz

Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, SL5 7PY Berkshire, UK

*Correspondence: E-mail: [email protected]Search for more papers by this author

Olaf R. P. Bininda-Emonds,

Olaf R. P. Bininda-Emonds

AG Systematik und Evolutionsbiologie, IBU – Fakultät V, Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, 26111 Oldenburg, Germany

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Andy Purvis,

Andy Purvis

Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, SL5 7PY Berkshire, UK

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Susanne A. Fritz,

Corresponding Author

Susanne A. Fritz

Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, SL5 7PY Berkshire, UK

*Correspondence: E-mail: [email protected]Search for more papers by this author

Olaf R. P. Bininda-Emonds,

Olaf R. P. Bininda-Emonds

AG Systematik und Evolutionsbiologie, IBU – Fakultät V, Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, 26111 Oldenburg, Germany

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Andy Purvis,

Andy Purvis

Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, SL5 7PY Berkshire, UK

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First published: 15 May 2009

https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01307.x

Citations: 443

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Abstract

Whereas previous studies have investigated correlates of extinction risk either at global or regional scales, our study explicitly models regional effects of anthropogenic threats and biological traits across the globe. Using phylogenetic comparative methods with a newly-updated supertree of 5020 extant mammals, we investigate the impact of species traits on extinction risk within each WWF ecoregion. Our analyses reveal strong geographical variation in the influence of traits on risk: notably, larger species are at higher risk only in tropical regions. We then relate these patterns to current and recent-historical human impacts across ecoregions using spatial modelling. The body–mass results apparently reflect historical declines of large species outside the tropics due to large-scale land conversion. Narrow-ranged and rare species tend to be at high risk in areas of high current human impacts. The interactions we describe between biological traits and anthropogenic threats increase understanding of the processes determining extinction risk.

Supporting Information

Figure S1. Moran’s I correlograms of non-spatial and spatial model residuals.

Table S1. Data availability and phylogenetic signal for species traits in our mammal data set.

Table S2. Human influence measures and their loadings in the PCA.

Appendix S1. The phylogeny of 5020 extant mammal species

Appendix S2. References for human influence measures in Table S2

Please note: Wiley-Blackwell are not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting materials supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing material) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.

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ELE_1307_sm_SA2.doc31.5 KB	Supporting info item
ELE_1307_sm_SF1.doc78 KB	Supporting info item
ELE_1307_sm_ST1.doc35.5 KB	Supporting info item
ELE_1307_sm_ST2.doc30.5 KB	Supporting info item

Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.

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Volume12, Issue6

June 2009

Pages 538-549

Geographical variation in predictors of mammalian extinction risk: big is bad, but only in the tropics

Abstract

Supporting Information

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Citing Literature

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Geographical variation in predictors of mammalian extinction risk: big is bad, but only in the tropics

Abstract

Supporting Information

References

Citing Literature

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