Election Summary: Tasmania

Despite its small population, Tasmania retains five seats in the House of Representatives courtesy of being one of the original states at Federation. For a century, the five seats have covered the same areas. In the south, Denison covers central Hobart on the western side of the Derwent, while Franklin covers the Hobart eastern shore and the populated areas of southern Tasmania south of Hobart. In the north, Bass covers Launceston and the north east coast, while Braddon takes in Burnie, Devonport and all the communities on the north west coast. Lyons covers everything else in between. As the state uses the same five seats as multi-member electorates for the State Parliament, voter familiarity with their electorate and its local MPs and candidates is very high. In a five week Commonwealth election campaign, the state-wide media manage to give attention to almost every candidate contesting the five lower house seats and the six Senate vacancies. In addition, enrolment is about a third less than in mainland electorates.

Between 1975 and 1987, the Liberal Party held all five Tasmanian electorates. The Franklin Dam dispute in the early 1980s resulted in Tasmania being the only state to record a swing against Labor when it was elected to office in 1983. The dispute enabled then Liberal Premier Robin Gray to capture a large slice of the state's blue-collar vote through the 1980s. However, the Burnie Paper Mill dispute in mid-1992, over the introduction of workplace contracts, re-polarised the Tasmanian electorate on class lines. Having won Denison in 1987, a 6.7% swing at the 1993 Federal election delivered Lyons, Franklin and Bass back to Labor.

Bass returned to the Liberal fold in 1996, but in 1998 the Labor vote increased again. Labor recovered Bass and gained Braddon, Labor winning a clean sweep of all five seats for the first time since the 1974 election. A month before the 1998 federal election, the Bacon government had been elected to govern the state, and since then, Liberal Party support has declined badly as the state party has chopped and changed leaders. Labor was easily re-elected at the 2002 and 2006 state elections, the Liberal vote falling below 30%. Labor retained all five Federal seats at the 2001 election.

In between the two state elections, Labor suffered significant reverses at the 2004 Federal election. Labor leader Mark Latham flew to Tasmania to announce Labor's forests policy, a policy that the logging industry claimed would cost jobs. Prime Minister Howard promptly flew to Tasmania and announced his own policy that would not cost jobs and found himself mobbed by timber workers. With the Labor policy clearly not supported by Premier Paul Lennon, the two Leader's visits to Tasmania were seen as turning points of the 2004 campaign, both in Tasmania and across the country.

The 2004 debate was not as simple as Greenies versus Loggers. There is a strong north-south divide in Tasmania, strong rivalry between Hobart and Launceston, with the North-West Coast often buying into the argument to press its own interests. The Greens have always been strongest in the south, and in the Tasmanian way, that means the north has often been anti-Green. There is a long history of development battles since the days when the Hydro Electric Corporation was damming Lake Pedder and later trying to dam the Franklin River. Tasmanian politics has an on-going dynamic between jobs in extractive industries on one side, and the environment and possibility for jobs in tourism and eco-friendly agriculture on the other. It is this two decade battle of north versus south and jobs versus development which Mark Latham walked into with his forests policy in 2004. Bass, Braddon and Lyons all swing savagely against Labor, the first two seats lost to the Liberals, while Labor comfortably retained its grip on Denison and Franklin.

In 2004, Braddon (LIB 1.1%) recorded the largest swing against Labor, 7.1%, and is now the state's most marginal electorate. As the government attempted to claw back Labor's lead, the Prime Minister flew to Tasmania and announced the government would 'save' the local Mersey Hospital in LaTrobe. This has thrown a wildcard into the contest in Braddon that may (or may not) help Liberal Mark Baker hold his seat against the challenge from Labor's Sid Sidebottom, who Baker defeated in 2004. Bass (LIB 2.6%) also saw a big swing in 2004, and is also the seat that in the last decade has been strongest for the Liberal Party in Tasmania. Liberal Michael Ferguson defends the seat against Labor's Jodie Campbell, who is Deputy Mayor of Launceston.

Little change is expected in Lyons (ALP 3.7%), held by Dick Adams, or Denison (ALP 13.3%) held by Duncan Kerr. Franklin (ALP 7.6%) looks a more interesting contest, with the retirement of Harry Quick, MP for the seat since 1993. Labor initially chose Electrical Trade Union official Kevin Harkins as his replacement, a candidate who Quick made clear he did not support. Harkins was attracting consistently bad headlines for Labor over his dispute with Quick, over a civil prosecution by the Australian Building and Construction Commission, as well as past statements in support of Mark Latham's forestry policy. Harkins eventually announced he would stand aside as candidate, raising the inevitable question of whether he was pushed or did he jump, with ALP State Secretary Julie Collins announced in his place. With the Harkins factor removed, Franklin is now not likely to attract much attention during the campaign.

The biggest local issue in Tasmania is the Gunns paper mill on the Tamar River north of Launceston. This will affect Bass and northern Lyons, but has the support of both major parties in the state arena, and both Federal parties are likely to simply tick-off the decision of the Tasmanian Parliament to give the plant the green light. This has caused the Greens to threaten not to direct preferences to either party in Bass and Braddon. However, left to their own choice, most Green voters will still give their preference to Labor, so it is unlikely the Green decision on preferences will have any impact on the result.

Where the Greens opposition to Gunns will have an impact is in the Senate election. In 2007, Senator Bob Brown is up for re-election, and he should poll more than a quota in his own right. The second Greens candidate is Andrew Wilkie, former intelligence officer who contested Bennelong at the 2004 election. The Greens are talking up his chances of winning a second seat for the Greens, but this seems unlikely. Family First is also talking up its chances and running a crusade against the Greens. Family First almost prevented Christine Milne from winning the final Senate spot in 2004 after engaging in some novel preference swaps with all other parties. It seems unlikely that such swaps would happen again. Assuming the Greens win a quota in 2007, will they win their seat at the expense of Labor or the Liberal Party. If the Liberal Party can hold on to its third seat, the chances of the Coalition maintaining its Senate majority is greatly increased, whatever the result of the lower house election.