The Associated Press preseason college football poll was unveiled today and it came with few surprises. The top 5 of Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Florida State and LSU mostly matched with other preseason polls released earlier this offseason.
However, when looking at the poll within the context of college football history and recent trends, it gets more interesting. The AP released its all-time Top 25 earlier this summer in honor of 100 years of polling, with Ohio State claiming the top spot.
Using the same formula that the AP did for its all-time poll (one point for a poll appearance, two for a No. 1 ranking and 10 for an AP national title), I took a look at the past five years of AP poll to highlight the trends in the sport.
First, if you don’t think that five years is enough time to get a quality snapshot of college football trends, may I remind you how much has happened since the beginning of the 2011 season. At that time Urban Meyer was broadcasting games for
A lot can happen in five years. With that said, here is a look at the AP’s top 25 teams of the last five seasons with the 2016 preseason rankings and the all-time top 100 offered for comparison.
| 5-year AP Rank | School (points) | AP All-Time Rank | 2016 Preseason |
| 1. | Alabama (170) | 4 | 1 |
| 2. | Florida State (110) | 9 | 4 |
| 3. | LSU (98) | 11 | 5 |
| 4. | Ohio State (89) | 1 | 6 |
| 5. | Clemson (87) | 22 | 2 |
| 6. | Stanford (81) | 32 | 8 |
| 7. | Oklahoma(79) | 2 | 3 |
| 8. | Oregon(77) | 28 | 24 |
| 9. | Notre Dame(60) | 3 | 10 |
| T10. | Michigan State (59) | 19 | 12 |
| T10. | Georgia (59) | 15 | 18 |
| 12. | Baylor (58) | 47 | 23 |
| 13. | Oklahoma State (56) | 43 | 21 |
| T14. | Wisconsin (53) | 24 | NR |
| T14. | UCLA (53) | 17 | 16 |
| T14. | South Carolina (53) | 48 | NR |
| 17. | Texas A&M (52) | 18 | NR |
| T18. | USC (48) | 5 | 20 |
| T18. | Michigan (48 | 7 | 7 |
| 20. | TCU (47) | 39 | 13 |
| 21. | Nebraska (46) | 6 | NR |
| 22. | Kansas State (44) | 44 | NR |
| 23. | Florida (40) | 10 | 25 |
| T24. | Ole Miss (37) | 29 | 11 |
| T24. | Auburn (37) | 16 | NR |
| T24. | Louisville (37) | 62 | 19 |
In a not-so-shocking development, Alabama claimed the top spot. Anyone who has been paying even the most casual attention to college football over the past five years knows that Nick Saban has the Crimson Tide rolling, and really it’s not even close. The Tide are the only team to be ranked in every AP poll over the past five seasons, have been ranked No. 1 a nation leading 29 times and have three national titles in that span. Alabama, of course, is No. 1 again entering the 2016 season.
The rest of the top five is equally unsurprising when looking at the past five seasons and most of those teams are ranked similarly with their all-time rank. One notable exception in that regard is Clemson as the Tigers five-year run has outperformed their No. 22 all-time rank.
Dabo Sweeny’s team is one of three teams ranked in the top 10 over the past five years to be ranked 20th or lower in the all-time rankings. Joining them in that regard are No. 6 Stanford (32nd all-time) and No. 9 Oregon (28th). Clearly, those three teams are trending in the right direction. The Ducks, however, may be beginning to reverse that trend as they are ranked just No. 24 in the preseason poll this season.
Other notable risers in the last five years relative to the all-time rankings are Baylor, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, TCU and Kansas State. Baylor, ranked 23rd this season, is No. 13 over the past five years, much better than the Bears 47th all-time ranking. South Carolina, meanwhile, came in No. 17 in the past five years but the Gamecocks are living off the glory from 2011-2013 when they missed just one poll. South Carolina was not ranked once last season and did not appear in the preseason poll.
On the flip side, eight tam from the all-time top 25 are absent from the rankings of the past five years. Texas is the No. 8 team all-time according to the AP, but the well-documented struggles of the Longhorns have them checking in 36th in the past five years as they have only been ranked in 28 percent of polls in that time frame.
Penn State is also absent as the N0. 12 all-time team is 72nd of the 75 teams to be ranked over the past five seasons, a precipitous drop to say the least. Also missing are Tennessee (14th all-time; 58th over the last five years), Miami (13th; 48th), Washington (20th; 47th), Arkansas (21st; 36th), Pittsburgh (23rd; 67th) and Iowa (25th; 45th). All of these programs have been trending in the wrong direction over the past five years, though the Hawkeyes may be reversing course after a 12-0 start last season and enter the year No. 17.
This research reveals parity is becoming more commonplace in college football. This change can be identified just within the last five years. In 2011, 12 teams were ranked all year with three holding on to the No. 1 spot. The following year was similar with 12 teams ranked all season and just two holding the top spot. Last season, however, just nine teams stayed ranked all year while 2014 saw four different teams ranked No. 1. These are small changes, but they indicate the sport, or at least AP voters, are more accepting of changes within the polls.
At the very top, this year’s preseason poll lines up with the past five years and is mostly en sync with the all-time rankings. Teams like Clemson and Baylor, however, show that new powers are emerging in the sport while squads like Penn State and Texas show that the prestige programs grasp on the top spots may be more tenuous than we realize.
