The importance of the coronavirus R rate in other countries across the globe

Germany, Italy, France, Malta, and New Zealand have all shown how monitoring of the rate can inform relaxation of lockdown policies

German Chancellor Angela Merkel - The importance of the coronavirus R rate in other countries across the globe
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been praised for her realism and flexibility when it comes to using the country's reproduction rate Credit: GETTY IMAGES

In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel has been praised for her realism and flexibility when it comes to using her country's reproduction rate to inform lockdown policies.

During a press conference on April 16 she explained: "The whole evolution (of the rate) is based on the fact that we assume that we have an infection figure that we can monitor, that we can track and that we have more protection concepts and that, thanks to those, we can loosen restrictions.

"But it is thin ice," as Mr Tschentscher (the Hamburg Mayor) said, "or a fragile situation, or really a situation where caution is the order of the day and not overconfidence".

The Robert Koch Institute, the government’s health agency, provides regular updates on the country’s rate. On May 5, it stood at 0.71, slightly declining two days later to 0.65.

Mrs Merkel’s caution is reflected across the border in France, where the R has fluctuated as the country began easing lockdown measures.

On May 1, Jerome Salomon, France's public health chief, said it had risen to between 0.6  and 0.7 on average from 0.5, due to the “progressive return to activity”. But officials are not solely relying on the R, instead reviewing several indicators to decide when to loosen restrictions.

At the end of April Spanish authorities said almost all areas of the country had a reproduction number below one, but that they would not consider easing restrictions unless this continues.

In Italy, authorities seem to be placing heavy reliance on the R after they announced that travel restrictions would remain in place until it drops to below 0.2 - as of May 2 it stood at around 0.7.

“It’s important not to let down our guard,” said Silvio Brusaferro, the president of the Italian Higher Health Institute.

In Malta, the R value first fell below 1 on April 18 after the government imposed restrictions. It currently sits around 0.61 but has fallen as low as 0.54 without the need to impose a full lockdown.

The reproduction figure is calculated on the total number of all cases in the community, hospitals and care homes. "I am pleased we have managed to weather the storm without having succumbed to pressure to order a total lockdown," Prime Minister Robert Abela said.

New Zealand has received praise globally for keeping the coronavirus outbreak under control, and recent modelling revealed the country’s R is currently below 0.5. 

The modelling, by Rachelle Binny of Manaaki Whenua-Landcare Research, found countries which enforced restrictions quickly were able to keep their R rate lower than those which were slower to implement measures, like the UK.

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