Full text loading...
Review Article
Open Access
The Changing Cleavage Politics of Western Europe
- Robert Ford1, and Will Jennings2
- Vol. 23:295-314 (Volume publication date May 2020) https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052217-104957
- First published as a Review in Advance on January 07, 2020
-
Copyright © 2020 by Annual Reviews.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. See credit lines of images or other third party material in this article for license information.
Abstract
How are the contours of Western European politics shifting? To what extent do these shifts reflect changes in the underlying social and economic structure of European polities? In this article, we reflect on insights from the classic literature on how cleavages structure party systems and consider how the emergence and persistence of new parties and new ideological conflicts are leading to both shifts of dividing lines of party competition and the fragmentation of party systems. While increasing attention has been given to the so-called second dimension of European electoral politics, we highlight the relatively limited focus on structural changes that are helping to drive this transformation. We identify some socio-demographic developments that are potentially generating new cleavages in Western European democracies: the expansion of higher education; mass migration and the growing ethnic diversity of electorates; the aging of societies and sharpening of generational divides; and increased geographical segregation of populations between prospering, globalized major cities and declining hinterlands.
Article metrics loading...
Literature Cited
- Abou-Chadi T. 2016. Niche party success and mainstream party policy shifts—how green and radical right parties differ in their policy impact. Br. J. Political Sci. 46:2417–36
- Abou-Chadi T, Wagner M. 2019. The electoral appeal of party strategies in post-industrial societies: When can the mainstream left succeed. ? J. Politics 81:41405–19
- Adler D, Ansell B. 2019. Housing and populism. West Eur. Politics 43:2344–65
- Bale T. 2003. Cinderella and her ugly sisters: the mainstream and extreme right in Europe's bipolarising party systems. West Eur. Politics 26:367–90
- Bale T, Green-Pedersen C, Krouwel A, Luther KR, Sitter N 2010. If you can't beat them, join them? Explaining social democratic responses to the challenge from the populist radical right in Western Europe. Political Stud 58:3410–26
- Bartolini S, Mair P. 1990. Identity, Competition, and Electoral Availability: The Stabilization of European Electorates 1885–1985 Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Beaudonnet L, Vasilopoulos P. 2014. Green parties in hard times: the case of EELV in the 2012 French presidential election. Party Politics 20:2275–85
- Bélanger É, Meguid BM. 2008. Issue salience, issue ownership, and issue-based vote choice. Electoral Stud 27:3477–91
- Bergh J, Bjørklund T. 2011. The revival of group voting: explaining the voting preferences of immigrants in Norway. Political Stud 59:2308–27
- Best R. 2011. The declining electoral relevance of traditional cleavage groups. Eur. Political Sci. Rev. 3:2279–300
- Betz H. 1993. The new politics of resentment: radical right-wing populist parties in Western Europe. Comp. Politics 25:4413–27
- Bird K, Saalfeld T, Wüst AM 2011. The Political Representation of Immigrants and Minorities: Voters, Parties and Parliaments in Liberal Democracies Abington, NY: Routledge, ECPR
- Blais A, Rubenson D. 2013. The source of turnout decline: new values or new contexts?. Comp. Political Stud. 46:195–117
- Bloemraad I, Schönwälder K. 2013. Immigrant and ethnic minority representation in Europe: conceptual challenges and theoretical approaches. West Eur. Politics 36:3564–79
- Bornschier S. 2010. Cleavage Politics and the Populist Right: The New Cultural Conflict in Western Europe Philadelphia: Temple Univ. Press
- Carreras M, Irepoglu Carreras Y, Bowler S 2019. Long-term economic distress, cultural backlash, and support for Brexit. Comp. Political Stud. 52:91396–424
- Clarke H, Kornberg A, McIntyre C, Bauer-Kaase P, Kaase M 1999. The effect of economic priorities on the measurement of value change: new experimental evidence. Am. Political Sci. Rev. 93:3637–47
- Clarke H, Sanders D, Stewart M, Whiteley P 2004. Political Choice in Britain Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
- Cramer KJ. 2016. The Politics of Resentment: Rural Consciousness in Wisconsin and the Rise of Scott Walker. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press
- Dancygier R. 2017. Dilemmas of Inclusion: Muslims in European Politics Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
- Dawson M. 1994. Behind the Mule: Race and Class in African-American Politics Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
- De Lange S. 2012. New alliances: why mainstream parties govern with radical right wing populist parties. Political Stud 60:4899–918
- De Vries CE. 2018. The cosmopolitan-parochial divide: changing patterns of party and electoral competition in the Netherlands and beyond. J. Eur. Public Policy 25:111541–65
- Dolezal M. 2010. Exploring the stabilization of a political force: the social and attitudinal basis of green parties in the age of globalization. West Eur. Politics 33:3534–52
- Duch RM, Stevenson RT. 2008. The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Duch RM, Taylor MA. 1993. Postmaterialism and the economic condition. Am. J. Political Sci. 37:3747–79
- Elff M. 2007. Social structure and electoral behavior in comparative perspective: the decline of social cleavages in Western Europe revisited. Perspect. Politics 5:2277–94
- Elff M, Rossteutscher S. 2011. Stability or decline? Class, religion and the vote in Germany. German Politics 20:1107–27
- Enos RD. 2017. The Space Between Us: Social Geography and Politics Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Enyedi Z. 2008. The social and attitudinal basis of political parties: cleavage politics revisited. Eur. Rev. 16:3287–304
- European Political Strategy Centre 2017. 10 Trends Shaping Migration Brussels: Eur. Comm.
- Evans G. 2000. The continued significance of class voting. Annu. Rev. Political Sci. 3:1401–17
- Evans G, De Graaf ND 2013. Political Choice Matters: Explaining the Strength of Class and Religious Cleavages in Cross-National Perspective Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
- Evans G, Tilley J. 2018. The New Politics of Class: The Political Exclusion of the British Working Class Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
- Evans J, Ivaldi G. 2018. The 2017 French Presidential Elections: A Political Reformation? Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave Macmillan
- Fieldhouse E, Green J, Evans G, Mellon J, Prosser C et al. 2019. Electoral Shocks: The Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
- Flanagan SC. 1987. Value change in industrial societies. Am. Political Sci. Rev. 81:41303–19
- Ford R, Goodwin M. 2010. Angry white men: individual and contextual predictors of support for the British National Party. Political Stud 58:11–25
- Ford R, Goodwin M. 2014. Revolt on the Right: Understanding Support for the Radical Right in Britain Basingstoke, UK: Routledge
- Ford R, Goodwin M, Cutts D 2012. Strategic Eurosceptics and polite xenophobes: support for the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) in the 2009 European Parliament elections. Eur. J. Political Res. 51:204–34
- Franklin M. 1992. The decline of cleavage politics. Electoral Change: Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in Western Countries M Franklin, TT Mackie, H Valen 381–402 Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Gallego A, Buscha F, Sturgis P, Oberski D 2016. Places and preferences: a longitudinal analysis of self-selection and contextual effects. Br. J. Political Sci. 46:3529–50
- Geddes A, Scholten P. 2016. The Politics of Migration and Immigration in Europe London: Sage. , 2nd ed..
- Gest J. 2016. The New Minority. White Working Class Politics in an Age of Immigration and Inequality. New York: Oxford Univ. Press
- Grant Z, Tilley J. 2019. Fertile soil: explaining variation in the success of Green parties. West Eur. Politics 42:3495–516
- Grasso M, Farrall S, Gray E, Hay C, Jennings W 2019. Thatcher's children, Blair's babies, political socialization and trickle-down value change: an age, period and cohort analysis. Br. J. Political Sci. 49:117–36
- Green J, Jennings W. 2017. The Politics of Competence: Parties, Public Opinion and Voters Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Green-Pedersen C. 2019. The Reshaping of West European Party Politics: Agenda-Setting and Party Competition in Comparative Perspective Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
- Hainmueller J, Hiscox MJ. 2006. Learning to love globalization: education and individual attitudes toward international trade. Int. Organ. 60:2469–98
- Hainmueller J, Hiscox MJ. 2007. Educated preferences: explaining attitudes toward immigration in Europe. Int. Organ. 61:2399–442
- Hainmueller J, Hopkins DJ. 2014. Public attitudes toward immigration. Annu. Rev. Political Sci. 17:225–49
- Hakhverdian A, van Elsas E, van der Brug W, Kuhn T 2013. Euroscepticism and education: a longitudinal study of 12 EU member states, 1973–2010. Eur. Union Politics 14:4522–41
- Hansen R. 2000. Citizenship and Immigration in Post-War Britain Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
- Harteveldt E, Ivarsflaten E. 2018. Why women avoid the radical right: internalised norms and party reputations. Br. J. Political Sci. 48:2369–84
- Heath AF, Fisher SD, Rosenblatt G, Sanders D, Sobolewska M 2013. The Political Integration of Ethnic Minorities in Britain Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
- Heath AF, Fisher SD, Sanders D, Sobolewska M 2011. Ethnic heterogeneity in the social bases of voting at the 2010 British general election. J. Elections Public Opin. Parties 21:2255–77
- Heath AF, Rothon C, Kilipi E 2008. The second generation in Western Europe: education, unemployment and occupational attainment. Annu. Rev. Sociol. 34:211–35
- Heath O. 2015. Policy representation, social representation and class voting in Britain. Br. J. Political Sci. 45:1173–93
- Helbling M. 2012. Islamophobia in the West: Measuring and Explaining Individual Attitudes Basingstoke, UK: Routledge
- Hjerm M, Schnabel A. 2010. Mobilizing nationalist sentiments: what factors affect nationalist sentiments in Europe?. Soc. Sci. Res. 39:4527–39
- Hobolt S. 2009. Europe in Question: Referendums on European Integration Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
- Hooghe L, Marks G. 2009. A postfunctionalist theory of European integration: from permissive consensus to constraining dissensus. Br. J. Political Sci. 39:11–23
- Hooghe L, Marks G. 2018. Cleavage theory meets Europe's crises: Lipset, Rokkan, and the transnational cleavage. J. Eur. Public Policy 25:1109–35
- Hooghe M, Vroome T. 2015. How does the majority react to multiculturalist policies? A comparative analysis of European countries. Am. Behav. Sci. 59:6747–68
- Inglehart R. 1977. The Silent Revolution: Changing Values and Political Styles Among Western Publics Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
- Inglehart R. 1990. Culture Shift in Advanced Industrial Society Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
- Inglehart R. 1997. Modernization and Postmodernization: Cultural, Economic, and Political Change in 43 Societies Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
- Inglehart R. 2008. Changing values among Western publics from 1970–2006. West Eur. Politics 31:1130–46
- Ivarsflaten E. 2006. Reputational shields: why most anti-immigration parties failed in Western Europe 1980–2005 Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association Philadelphia, PA: Aug. 31–Sep 3
- Ivarsflaten E. 2008. What unites right-wing populists in Western Europe? Re-examining grievance mobilization models in seven successful cases. Comp. Political Stud. 41:13–23
- Jardina A. 2019. White Identity Politics Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Jennings W, Stoker G. 2016. The bifurcation of politics: two Englands. Political Q 87:3372–82
- Jennings W, Stoker G. 2019. The divergent dynamics of cities and towns: geographical polarisation and Brexit. Political Q 90:S2155–66
- Katz RS, Mair P. 1995. Changing models of party organization and party democracy: the emergence of the cartel party. Party Politics 1:15–28
- Kitschelt H. 1994. The Transformation of European Social Democracy Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Knutsen O. 2006. Class Voting in Western Europe: A Comparative Longitudinal Study Lanham, MD: Lexington Books
- Koopmans R, Michalowski I, Waibel S 2012. Citizenship rights for immigrants: national political processes and cross-national convergence in Western Europe, 1980–2008. Am. J. Sociol. 117:41202–45
- Kriesi H, Grande E, Dolezal M, Bornschier S, Frey T 2006. Globalization and the transformation of the national political space: six European countries compared. Eur. J. Political Res. 45:6921–56
- Kriesi H, Grande E, Dolezal M, Helbling M, Höglinger D et al. 2012. Political Conflict in Western Europe Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Kriesi H, Grande E, Lachat R, Dolezal M, Bornschier S, Frey T 2008. West European Politics in the Age of Globalization Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Langsæther PE, Stubager R. 2019. Old wine in new bottles? Reassessing the effects of globalisation on political preferences in Western Europe. Eur. J. Political Res. 58:41213–33
- Lewis-Beck MS, Stegmaier M. 2000. Economic determinants of electoral outcomes. Annu. Rev. Political Sci. 3:183–219
- Lipset SM, Rokkan S. 1967. Cleavage structures, party systems, and voter alignments. an introduction. Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives S Rokkan, SM Lipset 1–64 New York: Free Press
- Martin N. 2019. Ethnic minority voters in the UK 2015 general election: a breakthrough for the Conservative party?. Electoral Stud 57:174–85
- Martinez-Fernandez C, Audirac I, Fol S, Cunningham-Sabot E 2012. Shrinking cities: urban challenges of globalization. Int. J. Urban Reg. Res. 36:2213–14
- Maslow AH. 1943. A theory of human motivation. Psychol. Rev. 50:4370–96
- Maxwell R. 2019. Cosmopolitan immigration attitudes in large European cities: contextual or compositional effects?. Am. Political Sci. Rev. 113:2456–74
- McKay L. 2019. “Left behind” people, or places? The role of local economies in perceived community representation. Electoral Stud 60: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2019.04.010
- Michon L, Tillie J. 2011. Party choice among immigrants and visible minorities in comparative perspective: the Netherlands. See Bird et al. 2011 33–36
- Moretti E. 2013. The New Geography of Jobs New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
- Mudde C. 2007. Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Nai A. 2018. Fear and loathing in populist campaigns? Comparing the communication style of populists and non-populists in elections worldwide. J. Political Mark. https://doi.org/10.1080/15377857.2018.1491439
- Norris P, Inglehart R. 2004. Sacred and Secular: Religion and Politics Worldwide Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Norris P, Inglehart R. 2019. Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit, and Authoritarian Populism Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Oesch D, Rennwald L. 2018. Electoral competition in Europe's new tripolar political space: class voting for the left, centre‐right and radical right. Eur. J. Political Res. 57:4783–807
- Oskarson M, Demker M. 2015. Room for realignment: the working-class sympathy for Sweden Democrats. Gov. Opposition 50:4629–51
- Otjes S, Krouwel A. 2019. Why do newcomers vote for a newcomer? Support for an immigrant party. J. Ethn. Migr. Stud. 45:71148–67
- Patana P. 2018. Changes in local context and electoral support for the populist radical right: evidence from Finland. Party Politics https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068818810283
- Pedersen MN. 1979. The dynamics of European party systems: changing patterns of electoral volatility. Eur. J. Political Res. 7:11–26
- Przeworski A. 1985. Capitalism and Social Democracy Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Rickard S. 2020. Economic geography, politics, and policy. Annu. Rev. Political Sci. 23:187–202
- Rodden J. 2010. The geographic distribution of political preferences. Annu. Rev. Political Sci. 13:321–40
- Rodden J. 2019. Why Cities Lose: The Deep Roots of the Urban-Rural Political Divide New York: Basic Books
- Rodríguez-Pose A. 2018. The revenge of the places that don't matter (and what to do about it). Cambridge J. Regions Econ. Soc. 11:1189–209
- Rooduijn M, Akkerman T. 2017. Flank attacks: populism and left-right radicalism in Western Europe. Party Politics 23:3193–204
- Rüdig W. 2012. The perennial success of the German Greens. Environ. Politics 21:1108–30
- Rydgren J. 2008. Immigration sceptics, xenophobes or racists? Radical right wing voting in six Western European countries. Eur. J. Political Res. 47:6737–65
- Rydgren J 2012. Class Politics and the Radical Right Basingstoke, UK: Routledge
- Saggar S. 2000. Race and Representation: Electoral Politics and Ethnic Pluralism in Britain Manchester, UK: Manchester Univ. Press
- Sassen S. 2001. The Global City: New York, London, Tokyo Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
- Schmidtke O. 2016. The ‘party for immigrants’? Social Democrats’ struggle with an inconvenient electoral issue. German Politics 25:3398–413
- Sniderman PM, Hagendoorn M, Prior M 2004. Predisposing factors and situational triggers: exclusionary reactions to immigrant minorities. Am. Political Sci. Rev. 98:135–49
- Sobolewska M, Fisher SD, Heath AF, Sanders D 2015. Understanding the effects of religious attendance on political participation among ethnic minorities of different religions. Eur. J. Political Res. 54:2271–87
- Stenner K. 2005. The Authoritarian Dynamic Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Stenner K, Haidt J. 2018. Authoritarianism is not a momentary madness but an eternal dynamic within liberal democracies. Can It Happen Here? Authoritarianism in America C Sunstein 175–220 New York: Harper Collins
- Storm I, Sobolewska M, Ford R 2017. Is ethnic prejudice declining in Britain? Change in social distance attitudes among ethnic majority and minority Britons. Br. J. Sociol. 68:3410–34
- Strabac A, Listhaug O. 2008. Anti-Muslim prejudice in Europe: a multilevel analysis of survey data from 30 countries. Soc. Sci. Res. 37:1268–86
- Strijbis O. 2014. Migration background and voting behaviour in Switzerland: a socio-psychological explanation. Swiss Political Sci. Rev. 20:4612–31
- Stubager R. 2008. Education effects on authoritarian-libertarian values: a question of socialization. Br. J. Sociol. 59:2327–50
- Stubager R. 2009. Education-based group identity and consciousness in the authoritarian-libertarian value conflict. Eur. J. Political Res. 48:2204–33
- Stubager R. 2010. The development of the education cleavage: Denmark as a critical case. West Eur. Politics 33:3505–33
- Stubager R. 2013. The changing basis of party competition: education, authoritarian-libertarian values and voting. Gov. Opposition 48:3372–97
- Teney C, Jacobs D, Rea A, Delwit P 2010. Ethnic voting in Brussels: voting patterns among ethnic minorities in Brussels (Belgium) during the 2006 local elections. Acta Politica 45:3273–97
- Teruel J, Barrio A. 2016. Going national: Ciudadanos from Catalonia to Spain. South. Eur. Soc. Politics 21:4587–607
- Tiberj V, Michon L. 2013. Two-tier pluralism in ‘colour-blind’ France. West Eur. Politics 36:3580–96
- Tilley J, Evans G. 2014. Ageing and generational effects on vote choice: combining cross-sectional and panel data to estimate ageing effects. Electoral Stud 33:19–27
- Tilley J, Heath A. 2007. The decline of British national pride. Br. J. Sociol. 58:661–78
- Turnbull-Dugarte S. 2019. Explaining the end of Spanish exceptionalism and electoral support for Vox. Res. Politics 6:21–8
- United Nations 2018. File 2: Percentage of population at mid-year residing in urban areas by region, subregion, country and area, 1950–2050. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision, Online Edition UN Dep. Econ. Soc. Aff., Popul. Div. https://population.un.org/wup/Download/Files/WUP2018-F02-Proportion_Urban.xls
- van der Brug W. 2010. Structural and ideological voting in age cohorts. West Eur. Politics 33:3586–607
- van der Brug W, Fennema M, Tillie J 2005. Why some anti-immigrant parties fail and others succeed: a two-step model of aggregate electoral support. Comp. Political Stud. 38:5537–73
- van der Meer T, Lubbe R, van Elsas E, Elff M, van der Brug W 2012. Bounded volatility in the Dutch electoral battlefield: a panel study on the structure of changing voting intentions in the Netherlands 2006–2010. Acta Politica 47:4333–55
- van Haute E, Pauwels T, Sinardet D 2018. Sub-state nationalism and populism: the case of Vlaams Belang, New Flemish Alliance and DeFI in Belgium. Comp. Eur. Politics 16:6954–75
- Vasilopoulos P, Demertzis N. 2013. The Greek Green voter: environmentalism or protest?. Environ. Politics 22:5728–38
- Wagner M. 2012. Defining and measuring niche parties. Party Politics 18:6845–64
- Wagner M, Meyer T. 2017. The radical right as niche parties? The ideological landscape of party systems in Western Europe 1980–2014. Political Stud 65:184–107
- World Bank 2019. Life expectancy at birth, total (years). Accessed Aug. 2: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=EU&name_desc=false
- Wüst AM. 2004. Naturalised citizens as voters: behaviour and impact. German Politics 13:2341–59
- Wüst AM. 2011. Party choice among immigrants and visible minorities in comparative perspective: conclusion. See Bird et al. 2011 99–100
Data & Media loading...
- Article Type: Review Article
Most Read This Month
Most Cited Most Cited RSS feed
-
-
-
-
Discursive Institutionalism: The Explanatory Power of Ideas and Discourse
Vol. 11 (2008), pp. 303–326
-
-
-
-
-
The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States
Vol. 22 (2019), pp. 129–146
-
-
-
-
-
Public Attitudes Toward Immigration
Vol. 17 (2014), pp. 225–249
-
-
-
-
-
Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes
Vol. 3 (2000), pp. 183–219
-
- More Less