ALBANY -- Harold L. Joyce said he knows what happened, and sometime later when things are quieter, he'd talk about it. For Tuesday night, the bottom line was a simple matter of arithmetic: Jerry Jennings got more votes.


Joyce's defeat Tuesday is not likely just to be written off as a win for Jennings -- end of story -- and on to the November race.


In this city that has known little more than party rule for 72 years since Dan O'Connell and his brothers overthrew the Republican Billy Barnes machine, the defeat in a Democratic primary of a man who was backed by the party, who only recently served as its chairman, and who was supported by most of its front-line committeemen, was being called the death of the machine, leaving the question of what will happen to the party, not to mention City Hall. State Assemblyman and Albany historian John J. McEneny, who argued the history books could cite Tuesday's primary as the date of the O'Connell-Mayor Erastus Corning machine's death, added that Jerry Jennings, as the victor in one of the party's most important primaries in years, emerges as a new key player. His actions from now on will speak not only for himself, but also could dictate the party's future. While Jennings still must beat Republican Philip Sprio in the November race, he holds some new influence in the party.


"A lot of the ball is in Jerry Jennings' court right now," said McEneny.


Exactly why Joyce and the organization lost the primary is likely to be a topic beyond this morning's cornflakes. There was some suggestion from Joyce that several heated aldermanic primaries, which had insurgents pumping voters on the idea of change, might have contributed to Jennings performance.


The overall showing in the race -- more than half the 44,680 registered Democrats in the city -- also indicated that the party's core of loyal voters, about one-fourth of the total, were not the only ones to show up for the primary.


Democrat McEneny and Republican mayoral candidate Sprio agreed on at least one thing: Voters weren't in the mood for the party's pick.


"People just aren't happy with the status quo," said Sprio, who now hopes he can carry the trend into an unprecedented Republican victory in November. "I think we're going to surprise people for that reason."


McEneny said change was clearly on the voters' minds, although the sentiment was not overwhelming, considering the closeness of the primary. That may not give Jennings a strong mandate for change in City Hall.


Jennings claimed 11 out of the city's 15 wards, taking all but the four uptown wards.


A few of those ward victories were relatively close and may change Thursday, when the Board of Elections opens an estimated 1,200 absentee ballots held in the race by court order at Jennings request. But even with the party's favorite usually running strong in absentee ballots, Joyce doesn't expect the big picture to change. Party Chairman Robert Signoracci, who had criticized Jennings for taking an independent line in case he lost the primary, called for unity Tuesday and said a rally was planned for next month to draw the party together. Jennings was taking an open-arms approach to his victory, inviting Joyce and his workers into the fold.


"I will never, never, punish dissent," Jennings said. "I open my arms to them and welcome you to this caravan of change."


But in the last moments of the primary and the early moments of Jennings' apparent victory, some significant changes already were appearing likely in both the party and City Hall. Jennings, who won the city's downtown minority wards and up into the middle-class areas of the city, lost badly in only one ward, Joyce's home in the 12th.


More significantly, in what may foreshadow at least some of the upcoming power play to follow in the Democratic Party, Jennings ran respectably in the 15th Ward, led by Frank Commisso, one of Joyce's top lieutenants and the current vice chairman of the party. Jennings' insiders said they had focused on the 15th as an important one to run well in, if only to hit Commisso.


Within the party and City Hall, people who had staked their future on Joyce, and perhaps more importantly against Jennings, may be making other plans now. Corporation Counsel Vincent McArdle said Tuesday he would be looking for new work while budget director Daniel Klepack and Jennings have clashed frequently and are not likely to share the same building.