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Compact View of Conference

Sunday, 23 April 2006
	5:00 PM-7:00 PM, Sunday Conference Registration
Monday, 24 April 2006
	7:00 AM, Monday Conference Registration continues Through Friday 28 April
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Monday, Big Sur Session 1A Special Session: Results from the NASA TCSP Experiment
Chair: S. D. Aberson, Hurricane Research Division, AOML, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 1A.1 Overview of the Field Phase of the NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) Experiment   Robbie E. Hood, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and E. Zipser, G. M. Heymsfield, R. Kakar, J. Halverson, R. Rogers, and M. Black 8:15 AM 1A.2 The Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX): A NOAA multi-year field program for improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasting   Robert Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Black, R. E. Hood, J. B. Halverson, E. J. Zipser, and G. M. Heymsfield 8:30 AM 1A.3 Tropical cyclogenesis observations from the NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment   Kevin J. Mallen, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery and S. A. Braun 8:45 AM 1A.4 Simulation of tropical cyclones from the NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment   Scott A. Braun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. T. Montgomery 9:00 AM 1A.5 Precipitation Analysis of Passive Microwave Data from the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment   Frank J. LaFontaine, Raytheon Information Solutions/NSSTC, Huntsville, AL; and D. J. Cecil and R. E. Hood 9:15 AM 1A.6 Investigations of a convective burst in intensifying tropical storm Gert during TCSP   J. B. Halverson, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. A. Hennon, G. M. Heymsfield, M. Black, and R. Rogers 9:30 AM 1A.7 Intense Convective Burst Observed From Hurricane Emily (2005) During TCSP   Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. R. Belcher, L. Li, L. Tian, and J. B. Halverson 9:45 AM 1A.8 Assimilation of satellite and in situ observations during TCSP for understanding tropical cyclone intensification   Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and X. Li
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Monday, Regency Grand BR 1-3 Session 1B Tropical Cyclone Structure I
Chair: Yuqing Wang, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
8:00 AM 1B.2 Potential vorticity rings and eye subsidence   Wayne H. Schubert, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. K. Taft, C. M. Rozoff, B. D. McNoldy, J. P. Kossin, and S. R. Fulton 8:15 AM 1B.3 Interactions between simulated tropical cyclones and an environment with a variable coriolis parameter   Elizabeth A. Ritchie, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and W. M. Frank 8:30 AM 1B.4 Phase space-based evaluation of numerical forecasts of cyclone structure evolution   Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ, University Park, PA; and J. M. Arnott and F. Chiaromonte 8:45 AM 1B.5 Energetics of idealized hurricane-like vortices   Young C. Kwon, Penn State Univ, University Park, PA; and W. M. Frank 9:00 AM 1B.6 Formation of the Hurricane Eye   Jonathan L. Vigh, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 9:15 AM 1B.7 A Study of Current Data Sets for Outer Wind Radii   Adam Moyer, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans 9:30 AM 1B.8 Objective identification of annular hurricanes using GOES and reanalysis data   Thomas A. Cram, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and J. A. Knaff, M. M. DeMaria, and J. P. Kossin
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Monday, Regency Grand Ballroom Session 1C Tropical Cyclones and Climate I - Theory and Modeling
Chair: James Kossin, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
8:00 AM 1C.1 The 80 cyclones myth   William M. Frank, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and G. S. Young 8:15 AM 1C.2 Interannual to Multidecadal variability of vertical shear in the tropics: Relationship with tropical cyclone activity   Anantha R. Aiyyer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft 1C.3 Tropical cyclones and the environment in which they grow in the NCEP Climate Forecast System   Hua-Lu Pan, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Saha and M. Chelliah 8:30 AM 1C.4 Tropical cyclone climatology in a global warming climate as simulated in a 20km�mesh global atmospheric model   Kazuyoshi Oouchi, AESTO/MRI, Yokohama, Japan; and J. Yoshimura, H. Yoshimura, R. Mizuta, S. Kusunoki, and A. Noda 8:45 AM 1C.5 Objective detection of tropical cyclones in climate models   Kevin J.E. Walsh, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic., Australia; and M. Fiorino, C. W. Landsea, and K. McInnes 9:00 AM 1C.6 Available potential energy sources in hurricanes and climate   Olivier Pauluis, New York Univ., New York, NY 9:15 AM 1C.7 Hurricane-ocean interactions during warm climates   Robert Korty, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 9:30 AM 1C.8 Could hurricanes form from random convection in a warmer world?   David S. Nolan, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and E. D. Rappin and K. A. Emanuel
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Monday, Regency Grand BR 4-6 Session 1D Intraseasonal Variability I
Chair: Gary Barnes, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
8:00 AM 1D.1 The initiation of the Madden�Julian Oscillation   Pallav K. Ray, MPO/RSMAS, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL 8:15 AM 1D.2 Simulations of linear responses to Madden-Julian oscillation heatings   Zhe Feng, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and P. T. Haertel 8:30 AM 1D.3 Potential Vorticity Aspects of the MJO   Matthew T. Masarik, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. H. Schubert 8:45 AM 1D.4 A New Multiscale Model for the Madden�Julian Oscillation   Andrew Majda, New York Univ., New York, NY; and J. Biello 9:00 AM 1D.5 The role of meridional momentum flux in the IPEDS multiscale models of the Madden-Julian oscillation   Joseph A. Biello, University if California, Davis, Davis, CA; and A. J. Majda 9:15 AM 1D.6 Evaluating theories of convectively-coupled equatorial waves using observations of 2-day waves   Patrick T. Haertel, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and Z. Feng 9:30 AM 1D.7 The MJO problem in GCMs: What are the missing physics?   Jia-Lin Lin, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 9:45 AM 1D.8 Impact of explicit atmosphere�ocean coupling on tropical intraseasonal ocillations   Wojciech W. Grabowski, NCAR, Boulder, CO
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Monday Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Cypress Session 2A The 2005 Atlantic season
Chair: Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL
10:30 AM 2A.1 Highlights of the unusually active 2005 Atlantic hurricane season-- A YEAR OF BREAKING RECORDS   Max Mayfield, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and L. A. Avila 10:45 AM 2A.2 Precursor climate aspects of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season   Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL; and G. D. Bell and R. J. Pasch 11:00 AM 2A.3 On the record 2005 hurricane season   Greg J. Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster 11:15 AM 2A.4 A comparison of the tropical disturbances that spawned Hurricanes Dennis, Emily, Katrina   Arlene Laing, NCAR, Boulder, CO 11:30 AM 2A.5 Evaluation of WRF-ARW high-resolution tropical storm forecasts in 2005 season   Wei Wang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Davis, J. Klemp, G. Holland, and M. DeMaria 11:45 AM 2A.6 Katrina, Rita and Wilma: Met Office model forecasts   Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and G. Greed
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Regency Grand BR 1-3 Session 2B Tropical Cyclone Structure II
Chair: William M. Frank, Penn State University, University Park, PA
10:30 AM 2B.1 Tropical cyclone inner core energetics and its relation to storm structural changes   Katherine S. Maclay, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO 10:45 AM 2B.2 THREE-DIMENSIONAL STRUCTURES OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OBSERVED BY MULTIPLE RADARS   Qingyun Zhao, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California; and Y. Jin 11:00 AM 2B.3 Modeled secondary eyewall and spiral band dynamics   Wesley D. Terwey, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery 11:15 AM 2B.4 Evaluation of WindSat ocean vector wind retrievals in tropical cyclones   Ian Stuart Adams, NRL, Washington, DC; and Z. Jelenak, C. C. Hennon, and W. L. Jones 11:30 AM 2B.5 Performance evaluation of rain-corrected scatterometer winds in tropical cyclones   Deborah K. Smith, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and K. Hilburn and F. J. Wentz 11:45 AM 2B.6 Analyzing Tropical Cyclone Rain Shields According to Storm Size   Corene J. Matyas, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Regency Grand Ballroom Session 2C Tropical Cyclones and Climate II - Extracting Signals from the Data
Chair: Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA
10:30 AM 2C.1 On the importance of reviewing historical tropical cyclone intensities   Bruce A. Harper, Systems Engineering Australia Pty Ltd, Brisbane, Australia; and J. Callaghan 10:45 AM 2C.2 Deconvolution of natural internal variability and trends in the SST signal for the analysis of the increase of hurricane intensity   Paula A. Agudelo, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos, P. J. Webster, J. A. Curry, and G. J. Holland 11:00 AM 2C.3 On the variability of tropical cyclones and category shifts   L. J. Pietrafesa, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and T. Karl, D. A. Dickey, L. Xie, T. Yan, S. Bao, and M. Peng 11:15 AM 2C.4 Annual Analyses of Basin and Hemispheric Tropical Cyclones Indices   David H. Levinson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. H. Lawrimore, B. Gleason, and T. W. R. Wallis 11:30 AM 2C.5 The Lengthiest Tropical Cyclone (TC) Record in the World: Analysis of Typhoon Occurrences Since 700 AD and its Relation with Atlantic Hurricane Occurrences, Global Temperature and Solar Activity   Jorge Sanchez-Sesma, Instituto Mexicano de Tecnologia del Agua, Jiutepec, Morelos, Mexico 11:45 AM 2C.6 The Impact of Climate Change on Northwest Atlantic Extratropical Hurricanes and Winter Storms   William Perrie, Bedford Insitute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and J. Jiang and Z. Long
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Regency Grand BR 4-6 Session 2D Intraseasonal Variability II
Chair: Chidong Zhang, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
10:30 AM 2D.1 New modeling evidence of the MJO influence on ENSO   Javier Zavala-Garay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang 10:45 AM 2D.2 Seasonal dependence of the MJO-ENSO relationship   Harry Hendon, BMRC, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and M. C. Wheeler and C. Zhang 11:00 AM 2D.3 Intraseasonal Kelvin waves and their relation with El Nino development   Toshiaki Shinoda, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO 11:15 AM 2D.4 Adjustment of the remote tropical climate system to El Ni�o conditions   Benjamin R. Lintner, Unversity of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and J. C. H. Chiang 11:30 AM 2D.5 The role of equatorial Rossby waves in westerly wind bursts   Paul E. Roundy, NOAA/CIRES Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis 11:45 AM 2D.6 Interaction of the South Asian and West African monsoons on intraseasonal to multidecadal timescales   Dan C. Collins, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos and P. J. Webster
	12:00 PM, Monday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Monday, Big Sur Session 3A Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones I
Chair: Sarah Jones, Universit�t Karlsruhe / Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe Germany
1:30 PM 3A.1 Global temperature redistribution by recurving tropical cyclones: A wildcard in midlatitude winter forecasting   Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 1:45 PM 3A.2 The extratropical transitions of eastern Pacific Hurricane Lester (1992) and Atlantic Hurricane Andrew (1992): A comparison   Michael Dickinson, Accurate Environmental Forecasting Inc., Narragansett, RI; and L. F. Bosart and K. L. Corbosiero 2:00 PM 3A.3 Forecasting Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclone Intensification via Projection Pursuit   Oguz Demirci, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 2:15 PM 3A.4 Supertyphoon Dale (1996): A remarkable storm from birth through extratropical transition to explosive reintensification that impacted the tropics, midlatitudes and the Arctic   Eric P. Kelsey, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart 2:30 PM 3A.5 The impact of extratropical transition on the downstream flow: idealised modelling study   Michael Riemer, Universit�t Karlsruhe, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany 2:45 PM 3A.6 Hurricanes Ivan, Jeanne, Karl (2004) and mid-latitude trough interactions   Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and M. S. Peng, C. A. Reynolds, and R. H. Langland
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Monday, Regency Grand BR 1-3 Session 3B Tropical Cyclone Intensity I
Chair: Paul D. Reasor, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL
1:30 PM 3B.1 The Intensity of Wind Gust Underneath Areas of Deep Eyewall Convection in Hurricanes Katrina and Dennis at Landfall   Richard G. Henning, 46th Weather Squadron, Eglin AFB, FL 1:45 PM 3B.2 Phenomenological analysis of forces in hurricane dynamics   Robert A. Dickerson, Independent Engineering Consultant, Zephyr Cove, Nevada 2:00 PM 3B.3 Effects of Baroclinicity and Different Initial Asymmetries on Vortex Axisymmetrization   Jiayi Peng, Internatinal Pacific Research Center,SOEST,University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and M. S. Peng and T. Li 2:15 PM 3B.4 A transfer function model to predict hurricane intensity   Nazario D. Ramirez, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico; and J. M. Castro 2:30 PM 3B.5 A fresh look at tropical cyclone pressure-wind relationships using recent reconnaissance based "best-track" data (1998-2005)   Daniel P. Brown, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL; and J. L. Franklin and C. Landsea 2:45 PM 3B.6 A device to control sea surface temperature and effects on hurricane intensity   Philip W. Kithil, Atmocean, Inc., Santa Fe, NM
	1:30 PM-2:45 PM, Monday, Regency Grand Ballroom Session 3C Air-Sea Interaction I
Chair: Paquita Zuidema, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
1:30 PM 3C.1 The Effect of the Ocean Eddy on Tropical Cyclone Intensity   Chiaying Lee, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. C. Wu 1:45 PM 3C.2 Super cyclone boosters in the northwest Pacific Ocean   I.-I. Lin, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. -. C. Wu and I. -. F. Pun 2:00 PM 3C.3 Loop Current Interactions to Hurricanes Isidore and Lili   Lynn K. Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn 2:15 PM 3C.4 Influence of the Loop Current ocean heat content on hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma   Benjamin Jaimes, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, E. Uhlhorn, T. M. Cook, J. Brewster, G. R. Halliwell, and P. G. Black 2:30 PM 3C.6 Improving Ocean State Initialization in Coupled Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models   George R. Halliwell Jr., Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, E. W. Uhlhorn, S. D. Jacob, and O. M. Smedstad
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Monday, Regency Grand BR 4-6 Session 3D Intraseasonal Variability III
Chair: Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY
1:30 PM 3D.1 Buoy and Satellite Observations of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Variability in the Tropical Northeast Pacific   Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR; and S. K. Esbensen 1:45 PM 3D.2 Temporal clustering of tropical cyclone occurrence on intraseasonal time scales   Patrick Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA 2:00 PM 3D.3 A composite study of sub-monthly circulation features over East Asian monsoon area during late summer   Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal Univ., Kaohsiung, Taiwan; and H. H. Hsu 2:15 PM 3D.4 Summer intraseasonal variability forecasting: Analysis of a serial numerical experiment and evaluation of slow manifold modeling   Carlos D. Hoyos, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster and H. M. Kim 2:30 PM 3D.5 Simulation of the northward propagation of the 30-60 day oscillation by ECHAM T42 and T106   Chih-Hua Tsou, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. C. Chen and C. T. Chen 2:45 PM 3D.6 Scale Selection for Tropical Bi-weekly and Intraseasonal Oscillations   Tim Li, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and C. Zhou
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Monday Coffee Break
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Big Sur Session 4A Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones II
Chair: Patrick Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA
3:30 PM 4A.1 Characteristics of North Atlantic subtropical storms   Mark P. Guishard, Penn State University, University Park, PA 3:45 PM 4A.2 Numerical modeling of Atlantic hurricanes moving into the middle latitudes   Chris Fogarty, Canadian Hurricane Center, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and R. Greatbatch and H. Ritchie 4:00 PM 4A.3 Dynamical structures and precipitation distributions of transitioning tropical cyclones in Eastern Canada, 1979-2004   Shawn M. Milrad, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. Atallah and J. R. Gyakum 4:15 PM 4A.4 The importance of resolved microphysics to reintensification during the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones   Brian J. Gaudet, Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and E. A. Ritchie 4:30 PM 4A.5 Sensitivity of ensemble forecasts of extratropical transition to initial perturbations targeted on the tropical cyclone   Doris Anwender, Universit�t Karlsruhe / Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany; and M. Leutbecher, S. Jones, and P. Harr 4:45 PM 4A.6 Dynamics of the wind field expansion with extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones   Clark Evans, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 5:00 PM 4A.7 Initial condition sensitivities for Western Pacific extratropical transition events   Ryan D. Torn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 5:15 PM 4A.8 Evolution and global impacts of a diabatically-generated warm pool: Hurricane Katrina (2005)   Ron McTaggart-Cowan, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, J. R. Gyakum, and E. Atallah
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Regency Grand BR 1-3 Session 4B Tropical Cyclone Intensity II
Chair: Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO
3:30 PM 4B.1 Tropical Cyclone Response to Time Depandant, Axially Symmetric Heating   Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University, Miami, FL 3:45 PM 4B.2 The role of the ocean in convective burst initiation: implications for tropical cyclone intensification   Paula Ann Hennon, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. B. Halverson 4:00 PM 4B.3 Inner Core Structure and Intensity Change in Hurricane Isabel (2003)   Peter J. Kozich, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen 4:15 PM 4B.4 The Impact of Multi-Satellite Data on the Initialization and Simulation of Hurricane Lili's (2002) Rapid Weakening Phase   Xiaoyan Zhang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Q. Xiao and P. J. Fitzpatrick 4:30 PM 4B.5 Upgrades to the UW-CIMSS AMSU-based tropical cyclone intensity algorithm   Derrick Herndon, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden 4:45 PM 4B.6 The evolution of low-wavenumber vorticity during rapid intensification: A dual-Doppler analysis   Matthew D. Eastin, Central College, Pella, IA; and P. D. Reasor, D. S. Nolan, F. D. Marks, and J. F. Gamache 5:00 PM 4B.7 An Evaluation of the Microphysics Fields of Hurricane Dennis (2005) at Different Stages of Its Lifecycle   Robert Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Black, P. Willis, R. Black, A. Heymsfield, A. Bansemer, and G. Heymsfield 5:15 PM 4B.8 The rapid intensification of Hurricane Guillermo (1997) as viewed with GPS dropwindsondes   Matthew Sitkowski, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and K. Dolling and G. Barnes
	3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Monday, Regency Grand Ballroom Session 4C Tropical Cyclones and Climate III - Trends
Chair: Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO
3:30 PM 4C.1 Global warming and hurricanes   William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO 3:45 PM 4C.2 Environmental Influences on Tropical Cyclone Variability and Trends   Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA 3:59 PM Paper 4C.3 moved to poster session 5. New Paper number P5.25   4:00 PM 4C.4 Trends in large-scale circulations and thermodynamic structures in the tropics derived from atmospheric reanalyses and climate change experiments   Junichi Tsutsui, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; and H. L. Tanaka 4:15 PM 4C.5 Increasing Atlantic hurricane activity in prospect from global warming   Mark A. Saunders, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and A. S. Lea 4:30 PM 4C.6 Leading Tropical Mode Associated with Increased Atlantic Hurricane Activity since 1995   Gerry Bell, NOAA/NWS/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Chelliah 4:45 PM 4C.7 Twentieth-century warming of the tropical Atlantic Main Development Region: a model-based assessment   Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Regency Grand BR 4-6 Session 4D Africa Weather and Climate
Chair: Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
3:30 PM 4D.1 Easterly wave diagnostics   Gareth J. Berry, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft and T. Hewson 3:45 PM 4D.2 The role of Kelvin wave activity on convection and rainfall over tropical Africa   Ademe Mekonnen, SUNY, Albany, NY 4:00 PM 4D.3 Subseasonal rainfall variability in the tropical eastern Atlantic-West African region   Guojun Gu, NASA/GSFC and Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Adler 4:15 PM 4D.4 African aerosol and precipitation in the Atlantic ITCZ   Xiaoyu Liu, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang 4:30 PM 4D.5 Recent rainfall trends across tropical West Africa: Observations and potential causes   Michael Christoph, Univ. of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; and A. H. Fink 4:45 PM 4D.6 Robust response of Sahel precipitation to late 20th century forcings: natural or anthropogenic?   Michela Biasutti, LDEO, Palisades, NY; and A. Giannini 5:00 PM 4D.7 Tropical climate variations and their impacts on circulation and precipitation in the Northwest Indian Ocean - Northeast Africa - Southwest Asia region   Damon C. Vorhees, NPS, Monterey, CA; and T. Murphree and K. D. Pfeiffer 5:15 PM 4D.8 Diagnosis of African Easterly Wave Structure and Development using Quasi-Geostrophic Potential Vorticity   Daniel R. Chavas, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan
	5:30 PM, Monday Ice Breaker Reception (Peninsula Restaurant Terrace)
Tuesday, 25 April 2006
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Tuesday, Regency Grand BR 4-6 Session 5A RIsk Management
Chair: Sytske K. Kimball, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL
8:00 AM 5A.1 How NWS Impact Statements Were Used to Communicate Imminent Danger from Severe Hurricanes   Barry S. Goldsmith, NOAA/NWS, Ruskin, FL 8:15 AM 5A.2 Information forecasting for hurricane preparation   Eva Regnier, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. Harr 8:30 AM 5A.3 Hurricane Katrina's wind field: Synthesizing wind observations to construct an analysis of record   Mark Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL 8:45 AM 5A.4 Event Response Activities for the Near-Real Time Assessment of Financial Losses in Landfalling Hurricanes   Richard Dixon, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA; and A. Boissonnade, T. Krebs, and A. O'Shay 9:00 AM 5A.5 Providing short-fused warnings for the onset of extreme hurricane winds�a final opportunity to minimize casualties   Scott M. Spratt, NOAA/NWSFO, Melbourne, FL; and B. C. Hagemeyer and D. L. Jacobs 9:15 AM 5A.6 Stochastic modeling of tropical cyclone track data   Jonas Rumpf, University of Ulm, Ulm, Germany; and E. Rauch, V. Schmidt, and H. Weindl 9:30 AM 5A.7 Gust factors in hurricane and non-hurricane conditions   Craig Miller, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada 9:45 AM 5A.8 Correlation of topographic speed-up factors and building damage ratios for Hurricane Fabian in Bermuda   Kimberly J. Mueller, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA; and C. Miller, K. Beatty, and A. Boissonnade
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Regency Grand Ballroom Session 5B Tropical Cyclone Database
Chair: Greg J. Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO
8:00 AM 5B.1 The Atlantic basin hurricane database re-analysis for the decades of the 1910s, 1920s, and 1930s   Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and S. E. Feuer, D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis, J. F. Gamache, C. J. Mock, R. Perez, J. D. Sims, and L. Woolcock 8:15 AM 5B.2 The Reasons for a Reanalysis of the Typhoons Intensity in the western North Pacific   Karl Hoarau, Cergy-Pontoise University, Cergy-Pontoise, France; and L. Chalonge and J. -. P. Hoarau 8:30 AM 5B.3 The urgent need for a re-analysis of western North Pacific tropical cyclones   Mark A. Lander, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam; and C. P. Guard 8:45 AM 5B.4 The tropical storms mailing list   William Thorson, Privacy NETWorks, Fort Collins, CO 9:00 AM 5B.5 Reanalysis of West Pacific tropical cyclone intensity 1966-1987   John A. Knaff, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. R. Sampson 9:15 AM 5B.6 The re-analysis of Hurricane Connie August 12, 1955 and Ione September 19,1955   Hugh D. Cobb III, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL 9:30 AM 5B.7 Re-Analysis of the Great New England Hurricane of 1938   Donna Strahan, UNC Charlotte, Charlotte, NC 5B.8 A Reassessment of the 1916, 1918, 1927, 1928, and 1935 Hurricanes of the North Atlantic Basin   David A. Glenn, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC; and C. Landsea
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Big Sur Session 5C Air-Sea Interaction II
Chair: Lynn K. (Nick) Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 5C.1 Thermodynamic structure of a hurricane's lower cloud and subcloud layers   Gary M. Barnes, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 8:15 AM 5C.2 The Effects of Sea Spray on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using an Idealized Model   Jeffrey S. Gall, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and Y. C. Kwon and W. Frank 8:30 AM 5C.3 Numerical study on impacts of the wet land boundary layer fluxes on the sustention of typhoon Nina and its rainfall   Ying Li, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing, China; and L. Chen 5C.4 Observations of front-to-back thermodynamic asymmetries in hurricanes   Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL 8:45 AM 5C.5 The Effect of Roll Vortices on Turbulent Fluxes in the Hurricane Boundary Layer   Jun Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Key Bisayne, FL; and W. M. Drennan, S. Lehner, K. B. Katsaros, and P. G. Black 9:00 AM 5C.6 Mechanical energy and vorticity balances within the OML under tropical cyclones   Eric W. Uhlhorn, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS/MPO, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay 9:15 AM 5C.7 Effects of Surface Waves and Upper Ocean on Hurricane Structure and Intensity in a Fully Coupled Model   Wei Zhao, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen 9:30 AM 5C.8 Numerical simulation of the interaction from an ocean/land/atmosphere coupled model. Part I: results from the ocean/atmosphere coupled model   Yihong Duan, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and X. Liang and R. Yu
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Regency Grand BR 1-3 Session 5D Monsoons I
Chair: John Molinari, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
8:00 AM 5D.1 Seasonality in the predictability of Indonesian monsoonal climate   Alessandra Giannini, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction/Columbia University, Palisades, NY 8:15 AM 5D.2 Seasonal transitions of zonally symmetric circulations   William R. Boos, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 5D.3 Onset and variability of the South American Monsoon   Rosana Nieto-Ferreira, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and T. M. Rickenbach and B. Konkle 8:30 AM 5D.4 The first transition of the Asian summer monsoon, intraseasonal oscillation, and Taiwan Meiyu   Chih-wen Hung, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. -. H. Hsu 8:45 AM 5D.5 The relationship between ENSO and East Asian Monsoon revealed by Taiwan climate variations   Mong-Ming Lu, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan 9:00 AM 5D.6 Interaction between South China Sea monsoon and Indian monsoon   Rosbintarti Kartika Lestari, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Japan, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan; and T. Iwasaki 9:15 AM 5D.7 Relationship between Amazon and High Andes rainfall   Edward K. Vizy, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and K. H. Cook 9:30 AM 5D.8 Using information content of coupled climate model simulations to generate multimodel projections of monsoon variability   Viatcheslav V. Tatarskii, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and D. C. Collins and P. Webster
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Tuesday Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-11:45 AM, Tuesday, Regency Grand BR 4-6 Session 6A Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones III
Chair: Jenni L. Evans, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA
6A.1 Evaluation of ECMWF ensemble forecasts of cyclone structure evolution through ET Using the Cyclone Phase Space   Daniel B. Veren, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans and S. C. Jones 10:30 AM 6A.2 Detecting tropical cyclone structural change with the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR), Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA)   Stephen R. Guimond, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and F. J. Turk, C. B. Blankenship, and J. D. Hawkins 10:45 AM 6A.3 A Study on the Extratropical Transition of Typhoon Xangsane (2000)   C-S. Lee, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. C. Lu 11:00 AM 6A.4 Asymmetric structure and maintenance in Hurricane Juan   Weiqing Zhang, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and W. Perrie 11:15 AM 6A.5 Adjoint-derived forecast sensitivity study of hurricane track and extratropical transition   Michael C. Morgan, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 11:30 AM 6A.6 The overland reintensification of Tropical Storm Danny (1997)   Nick P. Bassill, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan
	10:30 AM-12:30 PM, Tuesday, Regency Grand Ballroom Session 6B Tropical Cyclone Structure III - Eyewall Dynamics
Chair: Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA
10:30 AM 6B.1 Tropical cyclone multiple eyewall configurations   Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Helveston, T. F. Lee, F. J. Turk, K. Richardson, C. Sampson, J. Kent, and R. Wade 10:45 AM 6B.2 Vortex interactions and the barotropic aspects of concentric eyewall formation   H.-C. Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and W. H. Schubert 11:00 AM 6B.3 Inner core convective asymmetries and vortex Rossby waves in Atlantic basin tropical cyclones   Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and M. L. Black, A. R. Aiyyer, and J. Molinari 11:15 AM 6B.4 The dynamics of the eyewall evolution in a landfalling typhoon   Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. J. Cheng 11:30 AM 6B.5 A new pathway to polygonal eyewalls and asymmetric eyewall contraction   Pedro J. Mulero, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. P. Kossin 11:45 AM 6B.6 Concentric eyewall simulated in a fully compressible, nonhydrostatic, multiply nested, movable mesh tropical cyclone model (TCM4)   Yuqing Wang, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 12:00 PM 6B.7 The formation of concentric eyewall in hurricane Floyd (1999)   M.K. Yau, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and Y. Chen and M. T. Montgomery 6B.8 Tropical cyclone eyewall cycle impact on intensity and wind field structure   Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. F. Lee, F. J. Turk, K. Richardson, C. Sampson, J. Kent, and R. H. Wade
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday, Big Sur Session 6C Air-sea Interaction III
Chair: Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR
10:30 AM 6C.1 Development of a coupled hurricane-wave-ocean model toward improving air-sea flux parameterization in high wind conditions   Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. J. Moon, B. Thomas, T. Hara, H. L. Tolman, and M. A. Bender 10:45 AM 6C.2 Evaluation of Upper Ocean Mixing Parameterizations for use in Coupled Models   S. Daniel Jacob, GEST, Univ. of Maryland and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. M. Le Vine, L. K. Shay, G. R. Halliwell, C. Lozano, and A. Mehra 11:00 AM 6C.3 Oceanic Heat Content Variability in Eastern Pacific Ocean   Jodi K. Brewster, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay 11:15 AM 6C.4 Using AXBTs to improve the performance of coupled hurricane-ocean models   Richard M. Yablonsky, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis, E. W. Uhlhorn, and A. Falkovich 11:30 AM 6C.5 The Asymmetry of Coastal Water Level Response to Landfalling Hurricanes Simulated by A Three-Dimensional Storm Surge Model   Machuan Peng, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie and L. Pietrafesa 11:45 AM 6C.6 Local and non-local response of the Straits of Florida to tropical cyclones during 1999-2005   Alexander V. Soloviev, Nova Southeastern Univ., Dania Beach, FL; and R. E. Dodge, T. Gustafson, M. E. Luther, and R. H. Weisberg
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday, Regency Grand BR 1-3 Session 6D Monsoons II
Chair: Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA
10:30 AM 6D.1 A new conceptual model for the meridional circulation of the West African monsoon   Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and P. Woodworth 10:45 AM 6D.2 The onset of the West African monsoon: A numerical study   Samson M. Hagos, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York; and K. H. Cook 11:00 AM 6D.3 The development of intense convective systems in West Africa in wet and dry years, 1998-2005   Karen I. Mohr, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft 11:15 AM 6D.4 Rainfall types and associated vertical stability-shear weather regimes during the 2002 West African monsoon season   Andreas H. Fink, University of Cologne, K�ln, Germany; and V. Ermert and D. G. Vincent 11:30 AM 6D.5 Nocturnal Stratiform Cloudiness and the Structure of the Atmosphere during the West African Summer Monsoon   Jon M. Schrage, Creighton Univ., Omaha, NE; and S. Augustyn and A. H. Fink 11:45 AM 6D.6 An unusual dry-season precipitation event over West Africa: The role of an extratropical upper-level disturbance for the heat low and a surge in the monsoonal southwesterlies   Peter Knippertz, University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and A. H. Fink
	12:00 PM, Tuesday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM, Tuesday Formal Poster viewing with Coffee Break
	1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom Poster Session 1 Precipitation/Storm Surge/Flooding
P1.1 Effect of convective entrainment/detrainment on simulation of tropical precipitation diurnal cycle: A regional model sensitivity study   Yuqing Wang, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and L. Zhou and K. Hamilton P1.2 The numerical simulation for the heavy rainfall over a mountainous area in Japan caused by typhoon Meari (2004)   Akihiko Murata, MRI/Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan   P1.3 Precipitation response to environmental forcing in tropical cyclones   Daniel J. Cecil, University of Alabama in Huntsville, huntsville, AL   P1.4 Validation of Satellite-based Rainfall Estimates for Severe Storms (Hurricanes & Tornados)   Nasim Nourozi, NOAA-CREST/CUNY, New York, NY; and S. Mahani and R. Khanbilvardi   P1.5 Evaluation of Satellite-Based Estimates of Precipitation In the Yucatan Region During Hurricane Wilma   F. J. Turk, NRL, Monterey, CA; and G. J. Huffman, R. Joyce, C. Kidd, and R. Kuligowski P1.6 Stochastic Modeling of Typhoon-induced Flood in Taiwan   Shangyao Nong, Applied Insurance Research, Inc., Boston, MA; and G. Ljung
	1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom Poster Session 10 Tropical Convection, Clouds, and Rainfall
P10.1 Bias correction of rainfall simulation in east asia using a statistical-dynamic method   Jung-Lien Chu, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. T. Chen   P10.2 Consistency check of TRMM rainfall estimates using a radiative transfer model   Shoichi Shige, Osaka Prefecture Univ., Sakai, Osaka, Japan; and H. Sasaki and K. Okamoto P10.3 Heavy Rain Events on the South Facing Slopes of Puerto Rico   Andrew S. Levine, NOAA/NWS, Key West, FL   P10.4 Melting-layer cloud observed over the tropical western Pacific   Kazuaki Yasunaga, Institute of Observational Research for Global Change/ Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and K. Yoneyama, H. Kubota, H. Okamoto, A. Shimizu, H. Kumagai, M. Katsumata, N. Sugimoto, and I. Matsui   P10.5 The suppression of deep convection in the southwest Caribbean   Jorge Cisneros, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond and D. Martinez P10.6 Time and space variability of convective and stratiform rain in South Florida   Thomas M. Rickenbach, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and A. Singh   P10.7 The tropical warm pool international cloud experiment (TWP-ICE)   James H. Mather, PNNL, Richland, WA   P10.8 Impacts of model resolution on the statistical behavior of simulated convection   Olivier Pauluis, New York Univ., New York, NY; and S. T. Garner P10.9 Numerical simulation of tropical convective systems during TOGA COARE IOP using ARPS mesoscale model   Jae-Young Byon, METRI/Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and G. H. Lim   P10.10 Synoptic variability of the tropical convection over Central Africa   Thi Thuy Hanh Nguyen, Laboratoire de M�t�orologie Dynamique (LMD), Paris, France; and J. P. Duvel   P10.11 Diurnal variation of radar echoes and their possible role of preconditioning the atmospheric humidity   Tomoki Ushiyama, Institute of Observational Research for Global Change/ Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and R. Shirooka, H. Kubota, T. Chuda, K. Yoneyama, M. Katsumata, H. Yamada, M. Fujita, N. Satoh, K. K. Reddy, and H. Uyeda   P10.12 A global, 2-hourly atmospheric precipitable water dataset from ground-based GPS measurements for diurnal cycle studies   Junhong Wang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Zhang and A. Dai   P10.13 The diurnal cycle and propagation of deep convective clouds in Africa   Arlene Laing, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and V. Levizzani and R. E. Carbone
	1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom Poster Session 11 Ocean-Atmosphere
P11.1 The combined daily cycle of the upper ocean and lower troposphere over the East Pacific Cold Tongue   Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and M. F. Cronin and N. A. Bond   P11.2 Sea surface temperature signatures of oceanic internal waves in low winds   J. Tom Farrar, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and C. J. Zappa, R. Weller, and A. T. Jessup   P11.3 Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Perturbations Associated with Intraseasonal Oscillations of the Tropical Convection   Jean-Philippe Duvel, Laboratoire de M�t�otrologie Dynamique, Paris, France; and J. Vialard   P11.4 Interannual Variability of Surface heat fluxes and upper ocean under stratus cloud decks in Souteast Pacific   Toshiaki Shinoda, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO   P11.5 Idealized hotspot experiments with a general circulation model   Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR; and A. H. Sobel   P11.6 Dynamics of the Indian Ocean response to atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations   Sara Vieira, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and E. Di Lorenzo and P. J. Webster
	1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom Poster Session 12 Marine Boundary Layer
P12.1 Air-sea fluxes in Hurricane Frances (2004) from dropsonde data and a coupled model   M�licie Desflots, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen and W. Zhao   P12.2 Toward an Emperical Relationship for the Dynamical Reponse of the 26 C Isotherm to TC Speed and Intensity   Elizabeth M. Minter, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida; and H. R. Winterbottom P12.3 Toward an empirical relationship between TC intensity, TC motion, and the depth of the 26C isotherm   Elizabeth M. Minter, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida; and H. R. Winterbottom, C. A. Clayson, and R. E. Hart   P12.4 Wind patterns in FNL and MM5 simulations during the EPIC2001 project   Julio C. Marin, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, DF, Mexico; and D. Raymond and G. B. Raga   P12.5 Frictional decoupling and the inertial oscillation in stable marine atmospheric boundary layers   Costas Helmis, Univ. of Athens, Athens, Greece; and Q. Wang, G. Sgouros, and S. Wang   P12.6 The dynamics of the shallow circulation and its associated moisture transport   David S. Nolan, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang   P12.7 Two-way coupled mesoscale air-sea interaction in hurricane Frances (2004) and Katrina (2005)   Hao Jin, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle, R. M. Hodur, and Y. Jin
	1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom Poster Session 2 The North American Monsoon
P2.1 Intercomparison of Diurnal Variability of Rainfall Retrieved from PERSIANN-CCS and NAME NERN Gage Measurements in North American Monsoon (NAM) area   Jiangtao Cheng, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and Y. Hong, X. Gao, K. L. Hsu, and S. Sorooshian   P2.2 Diurnal cycle of sea surface winds and temperatures during the 2004 North American Monsoon Experiment   Brian D. McNoldy, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and P. E. Ciesielski and R. H. Johnson   P2.3 The contribution of eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones to the warn season rainfall climatology of the southwestern United States   Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and M. Dickinson and L. F. Bosart   P2.4 The impact of tropical cyclone remnants on the rainfall of the North American southwest region   Elizabeth A. Ritchie, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and D. Szenasi   P2.5 On the Relationship Between Horizontal Organization of Precipitating Systems, Easterly Waves and Gulf Surges   Gustavo Pereira, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Rutledge   P2.6 Interannual variability of near-coastal eastern Pacific tropical cyclones   David S. Gutzler, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and E. A. Ritchie, A. V. Douglas, and M. D. Lewis
	1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom Poster Session 3 Tropical Cyclone Genesis
P3.1 Climatological Analysis and Prognosis of Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Western North Pacific on the Background of Global Warming   Yongping Li Sr., Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China   P3.2 What is the trigger for tropical cyclogenesis?   David S. Nolan, Rosenstiel School, Miami, FL   P3.3 A numerical study of near-equatorial genesis of Typhoon Vamei   Christopher R. S. Chambers, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and T. Li   P3.4 Tropical cyclone energy dispersion in a three-timension model: upper tropospheric influence   Xuyang Ge, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and T. Li   P3.5 Kinetic energy efficiencies of idealized developing tropical cyclones   Daniel P. Stern, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan   P3.6 roles of cloud physics in development of tropical cyclone   Masahiro Sawada, Tohoku university, sendai, miyagi, Japan; and T. Iwasaki and S. Weiming   P3.7 The development of QuikSCAT-derived surface vorticity during tropical cyclogenesis   Elizabeth M. Minter, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida; and P. D. Reasor and M. A. Bourassa   P3.9 Cyclogenesis and Tropical Transition in decaying frontal zones   Michelle L. Stewart, COAPS, Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa   P3.10 Coherent disturbances in the tropics: Climatology, vertical structure and relationship with tropical cyclones   Anantha R. Aiyyer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari   P3.11 Hurricane genesis study using WRF   Nelsie A. Ramos, Howard University, Washington, DC
	1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom Poster Session 4 Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity
P4.1 Consensus Estimates of Tropical Cyclone Intensity using Integrated Multispectral (IR and MW) Satellite Observations   Christopher Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. C. Herndon, J. Kossin, J. Hawkins, and M. DeMaria   P4.2 The intensification of cyclones from asymmetric heating revisited: energetics and weakly nonlinear effects   Yumin Moon, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan   P4.3 The Influence of Multi-Level Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclones   Brian H. Tang, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel P4.4 Intensity change of simulated tropical cyclones   Young C. Kwon, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and W. M. Frank   P4.5 A Recalculation of MPI Using Upper�Ocean Depth�Averaged temperatures: climatology and Case Studies   Michael C. Watson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart   P4.6 The Operational Challenges of Forecasting TC Intensity Change in the Presence of Dry Air and Strong Vertical Shear   Jamie R. Rhome, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and R. D. Knabb   P4.7 The impact of environmental dry air and shear on the intensity of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) before landfall   Steven E. Feuer, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. P. Dunion, J. Kaplan, and S. B. Goldenberg   P4.8 The role of environmental inertial stability in tropical cyclone intensification: Symmetric environment   Eric D. Rappin, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and M. C. Morgan and G. J. Tripoli   P4.9 Nonlinear interaction of axisymmetric circulation and nonaxisymmetric disturbances in hurricanes   Zhao Yu Sr., Tianjin Meteorological Institutation, Tianjin, China; and L. Xiaoying   P4.10 Doppler radar investigations of the inner core of Typhoon Songda (2004): Polygonal/ elliptical eyewalls, eye contraction, and small-scale spiral bands   Kenichi Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and W. Mashiko   P4.11 Gravity wave-like structures observed in onshore typhoon boundary layer of Typhoon Kirogi (2000)   Kenichi Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and K. Irie   P4.12 Tropical Cyclone Wind Characteristics for the Bangladesh Coast Using Monte Carlo Simulation   Tanveerul Islam, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and R. E. Peterson   P4.13 Analysis and Detection of Tornadoes Associated with Hurricane Emily   Kurt M. Van Speybroeck, NWS, Brownsville, TX; and M. Martin, Jr., A. Partick, and J. Haro   P4.14 Investigating the boundary layer wind structure in numerically simulated landfalling hurricanes   John Walker, University of South Alabama, Moble, AL; and S. K. Kimball   P4.15 Shear-Induced Vertical Circulations in Tropical Cyclones   Da-Lin Zhang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and C. Q. Kieu   P4.16 A cloud-resolving simulation of Typhoon Rusa (2002) : Polygonal eyewall and mesovortices structure   Wataru Mashiko, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan   P4.17 Dynamic Characteristics of Typhoon Vortex Spiral Wave and Its Translation: A Diagnostic Analysis   Xiangde Xu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, P. R. China, China; and S. Zhang, L. Chen, and F. Wei   P4.18 What Sets a Hurricane's Radius of Maximum Wind?   Agnieszka A. S. Mrowiec, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and S. T. Garner and O. Pauluis   P4.19 Validation of QuikSCAT wind retrievals in hurricanes   Christopher C. Hennon, Univ. of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and D. G. Long and F. J. Wentz P4.20 An alternate method for extracting wind structure guidance from numerical models   Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ   P4.21 A study on the intensity change of typhoon Nakri (0208) - observation and GDAPS data analysis   Baek-Jo Kim, MRI, Seoul, South Korea; and K. Kang, C. H. Cho, and H. S. Chung   P4.22 Effects of Landfall location and teh approach angle of a cyclone encountering a mesoscale mountain range   Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. C. Savage and C. M. Hill   P4.23 A closer look at tropical cyclones in vertical shear flow: Diabatic heating and vortex resliency   Paul D. Reasor, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. D. Eastin and D. S. Nolan
	1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom Poster Session 5 Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Prediction
P5.1 Application of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit products to NOGAPS hurricane initialization   Bing Fu, Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and T. Li, M. S. Peng, T. Zhu, F. Weng, and T. F. Hogan   P5.2 Impact of satellite observations and forecast model improvements on tropical cyclone track forecasts   James S. Goerss, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. F. Hogan   P5.3 An internal tropical cyclone tracker for numerical models   Chi-Sann Liou, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin   P5.4 The sensitivity of hurricane simulations to the distribution of vertical levels   F. Carroll Dougherty, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. K. Kimball   P5.5 Improving Hurricane Visualization   Henry R. Winterbottom, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou and G. Erlebacher   P5.6 Evaluation of a tropical cyclone tracker for operational use with the COAMPS� regional model   Jeff Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and A. Hergert and C. Dickerman P5.7 Satellite Imagery Display and Analysis System (SIDAS): Tropical Cyclone Applications at the Air Force Weather Agency   Paul J. McCrone, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and C. R. Holliday   P5.8 A recent history of the GFDN Tropical Cyclone Forecast Model   Carey L. Dickerman, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and C. Dickerman   P5.9 Test of a mesoscale model over the south west Indian ocean for cyclones analysis and prediction   Samuel Westrelin, M�t�o-France, Sainte Clotilde, La R�union, France; and F. Ghislain, L. Berre, and J. -. M. Willemet   P5.10 Assessment of the Doppler Radar for Airport Weather (DRAW) system in Japan as a research tool for studying typhoon   Kenichi Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan   P5.11 Two cases illustrating limitations in forecasting tropical cyclones   Philippe Caroff, M�t�o-France, La R�union, France; and A. C. Fontan   P5.12 Improvements in integrated satellite reconnaissance tropical cyclone fix accuracy   Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Tiyan, Guam; and T. P. Hendricks, J. A. Gibbs, and M. A. Lander   P5.13 Hurricane Relocation in Global Ensemble Forecast System   Qingfu Liu, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Lord, N. Surgi, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, Z. Toth, and T. Marchok   P5.14 The Sensitivity of WRF Simulations of Hurricane Ivan to Choice of Cumulus Parameterization   Megan S. Gentry, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann P5.15 The Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT): Progress and future plans   Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. G. Jiing, R. D. Knabb, S. T. Murillo, and W. R. Seguin   P5.16 Prediction of trends of tropical storms in the North Atlantic basin   Nazario D. Ramirez, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico; and J. M. Castro, J. Gonzalez, and M. Angeles   P5.17 Assimilating Rain-Affected Microwave Radiances Withing Tropical Cyclones Using the COAMPS Adjoint Model   Clark M. Amerault, NRL, Monterey, CA P5.18 Effects of cloud microphysical processes on hurricane intensification: WRF simulations of Hurricane Dennis (2005)   Eric Schneider, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. M. McFarquhar, B. F. Jewett, M. Gilmore, R. E. Hood, and G. M. Heymsfield   P5.19 A Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Hydrometeor Profiles from TRMM, Airborne Radar, and High-resolution simulations   Robert Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Black, F. Marks, K. Valde, and S. S. Chen   P5.20 Spatial and temporal variability of North Atlantic hurricane tracks   Tingzhuang Yan, Dept. of Marine. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NC State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie, L. J. Pietrafesa, and T. R. Karl   P5.21 Application of stochastic and deterministic modeling to hurricane wind risk assessment   Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and S. Ravela, E. Vivant, and C. Risi   P5.22 Graphical mapping of tropical cyclone forecast wind probabilities worldwide   Mark A. Saunders, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and P. Yuen   P5.23 Seasonal prediction of typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific basin   Adam S. Lea, Department of Space & Climate Physics, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders   P5.24 Temporal Variance of Typhoon Disasters in Recent Six Centuries in Shanghai and Preventing ,Mitigating Strategies   Ming Xu, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and Q. Yang, Y. Duan, and M. Ying   P5.25 Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Storms (Hurricanes)   Rouzbeh Nazari, NOAA-CREST, College (CCNY) at the City University of New York (CUNY), New York, NY; and S. Mahani and R. Khanbilvardi
	1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom Poster Session 6 Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones
P6.1 The extratropical transition of Tropical Storm Ophelia (2005): Summary of forecasts and meteorological observations   Chris Fogarty, Canadian Hurricane Center, Dartmouth, NS, Canada   P6.2 Medium-range to seasonal precursor conditions to higher latitude landfalls of extratropically transitioning hurricanes   Clark Evans, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart   P6.3 Using ERA40 in Cyclone Phase Space to refine the classification of historical tropical storms   Danielle Manning, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart   P6.4 ERA40 and SSMI precipitation composites for cyclone phase space evolutions of extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones   Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. N. Maue   P6.5 Warm seclusion cyclone climatology   Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart   P6.6 ET frontal/surface wind evolution observed by QuikSCAT   Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL   P6.7 Predictability associated with the downstream impacts of the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones   Patrick A. Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. Anwender and S. Jones   P6.8 Structural changes of low level wind field of tropical cyclones in idealised extratropical transition scenarios   Michael Riemer, Universit�t Karlsruhe, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Hofheinz and S. C. Jones   P6.9 Forecasting and Adaptive Observing Issues in Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones   David E. Kofron, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. D. Aberson and S. J. Majumdar   P6.10 Synoptic Composites of the Extratropical Transition Lifecycle of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: Factors Determining Post-Transition Evolution   Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. L. Evans and C. Evans
	1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom Poster Session 7 The 2005 Atlantic Season
P7.1 Summary of Texas Tech University's hurricanes at landfall project 2005   Ian M. Giammanco, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder and B. P. Edwards   P7.2 Evaluation of the AODT v6.4.2 in an operational setting during the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season   Michael A. Turk, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD   P7.3 A comparison of targeting techniques for 2005 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones   Brian J. Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and C. C. Wu, S. J. Majumdar, and S. D. Aberson   P7.4 Hurricane Ivan Damage Survey   Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Dallas, TX   P7.5 Hurricane Katrina Damage Survey   Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Dallas, TX   P7.6 The University of South Alabama Mesonet and data collected during the 2005 Hurricane Season   Jason Holmes, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. K. Kimball and K. Blackwell   P7.8 Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) with the 0.125 degree finite-volume General Circulation Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer   Bo-Wen Shen, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Atlas, O. Reale, S. J. Lin, J. D. Chern, J. Chang, and C. E. Henze   P7.9 Ensemble analyses and predictions of Hurricane Katrina   Ryan D. Torn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim   P7.10 Eyewall evolution of Hurricane Katrina near landfall using NEXRAD reflectivity and radial velocity data   Kimberly D. Campo, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and T. M. Rickenbach   P7.11 Mesoscale Model Investigation of Ocean-Atmospheric Interactions and Intensity Change Associated with Hurricane Katrina Land Fall over Louisiana-Mississippi   R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and H. Chekuru, A. Surakanti, and G. S. Holmes   P7.12 Synthesis of common structure features at landfall in Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma using real-time airborne and ground-based observations   Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn, J. F. Gamache, P. P. Dodge, M. D. Powell, F. D. Marks, and R. M. Atlas   P7.13 The impact of the Loop Current on the GFDL/URI coupled hurricane-ocean model intensity forecasts of hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma in the Gulf of Mexico   Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and B. Thomas and A. Falkovich
	1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom Poster Session 8 Tropical Waves and Intraseasonal Variability
P8.1 Atmospheric intraseasonal variability and the seasonal cycle over tropical Indo-Pacific region   Hugo Bellenger, Laboratoire de M�t�orologie Dynamique, Paris, France; and J. P. Duvel   P8.2 Tropical intraseasonal variability in 22 IPCC, DEMETER and NCEP global models   Jia-Lin Lin, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH   P8.3 Precipitation structures and atmospheric waves over the tropical ocean   Abigail Swann, University of California, Berkeley, CA; and A. H. Sobel, S. E. Yuter, and G. N. Kiladis P8.4 Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves in Observations and Models   Julia M. Slingo, NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and G. Y. Yang and B. J. Hoskins   P8.5 Mechanisms of large-scale wave organization in a two-dimensional cloud resolving model   Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES-NOAA/ESRL PSD Climate Diagnostics, Boulder, CO; and B. Mapes and G. N. Kiladis P8.6 Vertical wind distribution in the tropical upper troposphere observed by Equatorial Atmospheric Radar   Noriyuki Nishi, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Kyoto, Japan; and M. K. Yamamoto, S. Mori, H. Hashiguchi, and S. Fukao   P8.7 Structure of tropical variability from a vertical mode perspective   Matthew Peters, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton   P8.8 Mid-summer gap winds and low-level circulation over the Eastern Tropical Pacific   Rosario Romero-Centeno, Centro de Ciencias de la Atm�sfera, Universidad Nacional Aut�noma de M�xico (UNAM), M�xico City (D.F.), M�xico, Mexico City, DF, Mexico; and J. Zavala-Hidalgo and G. B. Raga
	1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom Poster Session 9 Monsoons
P9.1 An extreme Saharan dust outbreak in spring 2004 and its impact on the onset of the West African monsoon   Peter Knippertz, University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and A. H. Fink   P9.2 The role of equatorial waves in the onset of the 1998 South China Sea summer monsoon   Katherine H. Straub, Susquehanna University, Selinsgrove, PA; and G. N. Kiladis and P. E. Ciesielski   P9.3 Annual Cycle of Southeast Asia�Maritime Continent Rainfall and the Asymmetric Seasonal Transition   Zhuo Wang, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and C. -. P. Chang   P9.4 SST cooling in the western North Pacific and its association with regional climate variations during summer   Hiroki Tokinaga, Institute of Observational Research for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and Q. Moteki, K. Yasunaga, H. Kubota, and R. Shirooka   P9.5 Axisymmetric and asymmetric monsoons in idealized experiments   Simona Bordoni, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and T. Schneider and B. Stevens
	7:00 PM-9:30 PM, Tuesday, Regency Grand Ballroom Panel Discussion 1 Long-term Variations in Tropical Cyclone Activity - Possible Causes and Effects
Moderator: Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA
7:00 PM Introductory Remarks   7:10 PM PD1.2 Summary of recent Atlantic tropical cyclone activity   Max Mayfield, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL 7:25 PM PD1.3 Tropical Cyclone trends in a Warming Environment   Peter Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 7:40 PM PD1.4 Possible causes of interdecadal variations in tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific   Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China 7:55 PM PD1.5 Natural vs. forced variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones   Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA 8:10 PM PD1.6 Global Warming and Extreme Tropical Cyclones: Are the tropical cyclone databases adequate for detection of climate trends?   Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL 8:25 PM Rebuttal (5 minutes per presenter)   8:50 PM Open discussion
Wednesday, 26 April 2006
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday, Regency Grand BR 4-6 Session 7A Tropical Cyclone Prediction I - Model Development
Chair: Chris Fogarty, EC, Dartmouth, NS Canada
8:00 AM 7A.1 Operational tropical cyclone forecast model improvements at FNMOC   Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA 8:15 AM 7A.2 The Hurricane WRF (HWRF): Addressing our Nation's next generation hurricane forecast problems   Naomi Surgi, Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Gopalkrishnan, Q. Liu, R. E. Tuleya, and W. O'Connor 8:30 AM 7A.3 NCEP's Two-way-Interactive-Moving-Nest NMM-WRF modeling system for Hurricane Forecasting   S.G. Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and N. Surgi, R. Tuleya, and Z. Janjic 8:45 AM 7A.4 A summary of recent GFDL model upgrades and plans for 2006   Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. Marchok, I. Ginis, B. Thomas, and I. J. Moon 9:00 AM 7A.5 Evaluations of the AFWA Weather Research Forecast Model Tropical Cyclone Predictions   William R. Ryerson, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry, S. Rugg, and J. Weigel 9:15 AM 7A.6 A comparison of adaptive observing guidance for Atlantic tropical cyclones   Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. D. Aberson, C. Bishop, R. Buizza, M. S. Peng, and C. A. Reynolds 9:30 AM 7A.7 Interpretation of tropical cyclone targeting guidance   C. A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng, S. J. Majumdar, S. D. Aberson, C. H. Bishop, and R. Buizza 9:45 AM 7A.8 Hurricane WRF model transition to operations at NCEP/EMC: Sensitivity of results to surface fluxes and convection   Robert Tuleya, EMC, Norfolk, VA; and N. Surgi, S. Gopalkrishnan, and D. Johnson
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday, Regency Grand Ballroom Session 7B Tropical Cyclone Landfall
Chair: Mark D. Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
8:00 AM 7B.1 The perspective below: ground-level reconnaissance in landfalling hurricanes   Forrest Masters, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and P. G. Black and M. D. Powell 8:15 AM 7B.2 Topographic effetcs on Typhoon Nari (2001): Verification and sensitivity experiments   Ming-Jen Yang, National Central University, Jhongli City, Taiwan; and H. L. Huang 8:30 AM 7B.3 Tropical Cyclone Landfall under the influence of Uniform Flow   William C. T. Shum, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan 8:45 AM 7B.4 Stable Isotopes in Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Ivan (2004)   James Robert Lawrence, Univ. of Houston, Houston, TX; and S. D. Gedzelman and K. Y. Kong 9:00 AM 7B.5 Spatial structure and evolution of 10m winds and rainfall in modeled hurricanes at landfall   Sytske K. Kimball, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL 9:15 AM 7B.6 Analyses and Modeling of Typhoon Imbudo in 2003   Gang Fu, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; and Q. Li and Y. Duan 9:30 AM 7B.7 Collapsing precipitation cores in open-eyewall hurricanes at landfall: Are these cores actually downbursts associated with extreme surface wind gusts?   Jason Holmes, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and K. G. Blackwell, R. A. Wade, and C. Holt 9:45 AM 7B.8 An Examination of the Synoptic and Mesoscale Environments Involved in Tornado Outbreaks from Hurricane's Frances (2004) and Jeanne (2004) over Northeast Coastal Georgia and Southern South Carolina   Paul Yura, NOAA/NWSFO, North Charleston, SC; and F. Alsheimer and J. Calderone
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Wednesday, Regency Grand BR 1-3 Session 7C Special Session: CBLAST LOW
Chair: James B. Edson, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT
8:00 AM 7C.1 Evaluation and continued improvements to the TOGA COARE 3.0 bulk flux algorithm using CBLAST data   James B. Edson, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT; and C. W. Fairall 8:15 AM 7C.2 Contributions of Swell to Air-Sea Interactions under Weak Wind Conditions   Jielun Sun, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. P. Burns, J. B. Edson, D. Khelif, L. Mahrt, D. Vickers, and T. Hristov 8:30 AM 7C.3 Evaluation of air-sea bulk formula   Dean Vickers, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and L. Mahrt 8:45 AM 7C.4 Wind, waves and Langmuir circulation during CBLAST-Low   Albert J. Plueddemann, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA 7C.5 Very stable marine boundary layers   Larry Mahrt, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and D. Vickers and J. B. Edson 9:00 AM 7C.6 Momentum flux structures and statistics in low-wind marine surface layers: Observations and large-eddy simulations   Peter P. Sullivan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Edson, T. Hristov, and J. C. McWilliams 9:15 AM 7C.7 Effects of mesoscale SST fronts on the marine boundary layer   Eric D. Skyllingstad, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and L. Mahrt and D. Vickers 9:30 AM 7C.8 Coherent structures in ocean skin temperature variability   Christopher J. Zappa, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and A. T. Jessup, J. T. Farrar, and R. A. Weller
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday, Big Sur Session 7D Tropical Convection I
Organizer: Courtney Schumaker, Texas A&M, College Station, TX
8:00 AM 7D.1 On the role of cross-equatorial pressure gradients in the development of tropical convection over the Eastern Pacific Ocean: A Modeling Study   Violeta Toma, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster 8:15 AM 7D.2 The origin of systematic errors in the GCM simulation of ITCZ precipitation   Winston C. Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. J. Suarez, J. T. Bacmeister, B. Chen, and L. L. Takacs 8:30 AM 7D.3 The boundary layer contribution to intertropical convergence zones in the quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model framework   Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and J. D. Neelin 8:45 AM 7D.4 Geographic variability in the export of moist static energy in the Tropical Pacific   Larissa E. Back, MIT, Cambridge, MA 9:00 AM 7D.5 Meridional moisture transport by tropical synoptic scale disturbances over the Pacific and Atlantic basins   Chia-chi Wang, Department of Earth System Science, Univ. of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and G. Magnusdottir 9:15 AM 7D.6 Convectively coupled waves in DARE simulations on an equatorial β-plane   Zhiming Kuang, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 9:30 AM 7D.7 A simple, vertically resolved model of tropical disturbances with a humidity closure   Zeljka Fuchs, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond 9:45 AM 7D.8 Variability of deep convective cloud characteristics across the tropical Pacific   Michael P. Jensen, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Wednesday Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-11:45 AM, Wednesday, Regency Grand BR 4-6 Session 8A Tropical Cyclone Prediction II - Initialisation
Chair: Tim Li, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI
10:30 AM 8A.1 Reanalysis of western Pacific typhoons in 2004 using 4DVAR Data Assimilation Technique   Xin Zhang, IPRC/SOEST, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and T. Li, F. Weng, and C. C. Wu 10:45 AM 8A.2 Hurricane Initialization in HWRF Model   Qingfu Liu, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and N. Surgi, S. Lord, W. S. Wu, D. Parrish, S. Gopalakrishnan, J. Waldrop, and J. Gamache 11:00 AM 8A.3 A new 4D variational assimilation of multiple spaceborne datasets for regional water and energy budgets. An application to the Bret Hurricane   Aurelie Bouchard, CETP, Velizy, France; and L. Yvon and V. Nicolas 11:15 AM 8A.4 Impack of TOMS ozone observations on hurricane track prediction   Yonghui Wu, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou 11:30 AM 8A.5 Initializing a Hurricane Vortex with an Ensemble Kalman Filter   Yongsheng Chen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, Regency Grand Ballroom Session 8B tropical cyclone motion
Chair: Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
10:30 AM 8B.1 The effect of interaction between meso-scale system and typhoon on Its motion and structure change   Lianshou Chen, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and Z. Luo 10:45 AM 8B.2 Targeted Observations of Tropical Cyclone Movement Based on the Adjoint-Derived Sensitivity Steering Vector   Jan-Huey Chen, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, P. H. Lin, and K. H. Chou 11:00 AM 8B.3 A study on the Orographic Effects on the Movement of Typhoon Haitang (2005) in East of Taiwan   T.-C. Yeh, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. F. Hsiao, D. S. Chen, and K. N. Huang 11:15 AM 8B.4 Sensitivity of tropical cyclone forecasts as revealed by singular vectors   Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds 11:30 AM 8B.5 Effects of cumulus parameterizations on tropical cyclone potential vorticity structure and steering flow   Brett Thomas Hoover, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan 11:45 AM 8B.6 A simulation study on pre-landfall erratic track of typhoon Haitang (2005) with GRAPES_TCM   Hui Yu, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and W. Huang, Y. Duan, J. C. L. Chan, and R. Yu
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, Regency Grand BR 1-3 Session 8C Special Session: CBLAST LOW II and CBLAST HURRICANE I
Cochairs: James B. Edson, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT; Eric A. D'Asaro, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA
10:30 AM 8C.1 Rapid transition of boundary layer structure observed on coastal sites   Qing Wang, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and C. Helmis, G. Katsouvas, and S. W. Wang 10:45 AM 8C.2 Numerical Simulation and Modeling of Air-Sea Coupling at Small Scales   Lian Shen, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and D. K. P. Yue 11:00 AM 8C.3 A Case Study of Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Boundary Layer Wind Structure   Shouping Wang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Q. Wang and J. Cummings 11:15 AM 8C.4 The hurricane mixing front   Eric A. D'Asaro, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Harcourt, E. Terrill, P. P. Niiler, and T. B. Sanford 11:30 AM 8C.5 High-resolution vertical profiling of ocean velocity and water properties under Hurricane Frances in September 2004   Thomas B. Sanford, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and E. A. D'Asaro, J. B. Girton, J. F. Price, and D. C. Webb 11:45 AM 8C.6 Relaxation of SST in the cool wake of a hurricane   James F. Price, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and J. Morzel
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, Big Sur Session 8D Tropical Convection II
Chair: Jean Philippe Duvel, Laboratoire de M�t�orologie Dynamique (LMD), Paris France
10:30 AM 8D.1 High resolution numerical modelling of deep moist convection in statistical equilibrium: buoyancy and velocity scales   Antonio Parodi, CIMA, University of Genoa, Savona, Italy; and K. Emanuel 10:45 AM 8D.2 The Convective cold top and quasi-equilibrium   Christopher E. Holloway, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin 11:00 AM 8D.3 Mesoscale aspects in the formation of a pre-cyclogenic African easterly wave near the Ethiopian Highlands   Christopher M. Hill, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and Y. L. Lin 11:15 AM 8D.4 Convective systems in the Bay of Bengal during the Indian Summer Monsoon   Wen-wen Tung, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and H. M. Hsu and M. W. Moncrieff 11:30 AM 8D.5 The Interaction of Clouds and Dry Air in the Eastern Tropical Pacific   Paquita Zuidema, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Mapes, J. L. Lin, C. Fairall, and G. Wick 11:45 AM 8D.6 The MCS life cycle: prototype or building block of larger-scale waves?   Brian Mapes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. N. Tulich
	12:00 PM, Wednesday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday, Regency Grand BR 4-6 Session 9A Tropical Cyclone Prediction III - Applications
Chair: Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
1:30 PM 9A.1 New methods for evaluating rainfall forecasts from operational models for landfalling tropical cyclones   Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. Rogers and R. Tuleya 1:45 PM 9A.2 opical Cyclone Satellite Tutorial Online Through The COMET Program   Thomas F. Lee, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. D. Miller, F. J. Turk, J. D. Hawkins, P. Dills, and S. Wang 2:00 PM 9A.3 Employing Hurricane Wind Probabilities to Enhance Local Forecasts and Improve Guidance for Decision-Makers   David Sharp, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and M. Volkmer, P. Santos, G. Rader, and M. Sardi 2:15 PM 9A.4 An asymmetric hurricane wind model for storm surge and wave forecasting   Shaowu Bao, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie and L. J. Pietrafesa 2:30 PM 9A.5 Providing Tropical Cyclone Weather Support to Space Launch Operations   Katherine A. Winters, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL; and J. W. Weems, F. C. Flinn, G. B. Kubat, S. B. Cocks, and J. T. Madura 2:45 PM 9A.6 How well forecast were the 2004 and 2005 Atlantic and US hurricane seasons?   Adam S. Lea, Department of Space & Climate Physics, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday, Regency Grand Ballroom Session 9B Tropical Cyclogenesis I
Chair: Brian J. Gaudet, Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM
1:30 PM 9B.1 The interaction of tropical cyclones with the Saharan Air Layer: model case studies from 2004   Sarah Jones, Universit�t Karlsruhe / Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany; and N. Lichtenberger and B. Vogel 1:45 PM 9B.2 Thermodynamic structure of tropical cyclones during genesis   Kay L. Shelton, SUNY, Albany, NY 2:00 PM 9B.3 The Genesis of Hurricane Humberto (2001)   Klaus Dolling, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. Barnes 2:15 PM 9B.4 Understanding the genesis of Hurricane Vince through the surface pressure tendency equation   Kwan-yin Kong, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD 2:30 PM 9B.5 The effect of mid-level moistening on tropical cyclogenesis   Melville Nicholls, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. Montgomery 2:45 PM 9B.6 Statistical analysis of organized cloud clusters on western North Pacific and their warm core structure   Kotaro Bessho, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Nakazawa, S. Nishimura, K. Kato, and S. Hoshino
	1:30 PM-3:05 PM, Wednesday, Regency Grand BR 1-3 Session 9C Special Session: CBLAST HURRICANE II
Chair: Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
1:30 PM 9C.1 The Critical Role of Air-Sea Enthalpy and Momentum fluxes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure   Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA 1:50 PM 9C.2 Synthesis of major results from the Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer Experiment (CBLAST) in hurricanes (2003�2004)   Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. A. D'Asaro, J. R. French, and W. M. Drennan 2:05 PM 9C.3 CBLAST Wind-Wave Parameterization for Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Models in Hurricane Research and Prediction   Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and W. Zhao, M. Donelan, J. F. Price, E. J. Walsh, and H. Tolman 2:20 PM 9C.4 Direct Airborne Measurements of Momentum Flux in Hurricanes   Jeffrey R. French, NOAA/OAR/ARL, Oak Ridge, TN; and W. M. Drennan, J. A. Zhang, and P. G. Black 2:35 PM 9C.5 Latent heat fluxes in the hurricane boundary layer   William M. Drennan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. A. Zhang, J. R. French, and P. G. Black 2:50 PM 9C.6 Estimates of surface enthalpy and momentum fluxes at high winds speeds using the budget residual method: Results from CBLAST   Jeanne Davancens, MIT, Issy les Moulineaux, France; and K. A. Emanuel
	1:30 PM-2:45 PM, Wednesday, Big Sur Session 9D Tropical Convection III
Chair: Brian Mapes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
1:30 PM 9D.1 A Rational Approach to Cumulus Parameterization   David J. Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM 1:45 PM 9D.2 A numerical study of convection in easterly waves using the "Relax to Balance" approximation   Sharon L. Sessions, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. Raymond 2:00 PM 9D.3 Sensitivities of explicity simulated tropical cloud ensembles to their large-scale setting   Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES-NOAA/ESRL PSD Climate Diagnostics, Boulder, CO; and B. Mapes 2:15 PM 9D.4 Testing convective parameterizations against tropical measurements of CO, HNO3, O3, and H2O   Ian A. Folkins, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada; and B. M. Sinnhuber 2:30 PM 9D.5 Multicloud parametrizations for convectively coupled tropical waves   Boualem Khouider, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and A. Majda
	3:00 PM, Wednesday Coffee Break
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Regency Grand BR 4-6 Session 10A Tropical Cyclone Prediction IV - Landfall
Chair: Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI
3:30 PM 10A.1 United States landfalling hurricane probability webpage   Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 3:45 PM 10A.2 Pre-Season Prediction of Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Frequency   Lian Xie, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and T. Yan, L. J. Pietrafesa, and T. R. Karl 4:00 PM 10A.3 Recent results on landfalling hurricanes with the GFDL hurricane-land-ocean coupled system at NCEP   Weixing Shen, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. E. Tuleya, N. Surgi, S. J. Lord, K. E. Mitchell, T. P. Marchok, and M. A. Bender 4:15 PM 10A.4 Mesoscale predictability of tropical storm Allison (2001) during its initiation and landfall   Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and J. Sippel 4:30 PM 10A.5 The Impact of the Dropwindsonde Data from DOTSTAR on the Prediction of Typhoon Conson (2004)   Wei-Peng Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, P. H. Lin, and K. H. Chou 4:45 PM 10A.6 Effect of Determining Initial Conditions by Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation on Storm Surge Forecasting   S.-Q. Peng, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie 5:00 PM 10A.7 Forecast errors associated with Hurricane Rita (2005)   Eyad Atallah, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum and R. McTaggart-Cowan 5:15 PM 10A.8 A Bayesian regression approach for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity   P. S. Chu, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and X. Zhao
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Regency Grand Ballroom Session 10B Tropical Cyclogenesis II
Chair: Arlene Laing, NCAR, Boulder, CO
3:30 PM 10B.1 Tropical transition: possible mechanisms and observational needs   Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. F. Bosart 3:45 PM 10B.2 The role of the occlusion process in the extratropical-to-tropical transition of Atlantic Hurricane Karen   Andrew L. Hulme, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin 4:00 PM 10B.3 The tropical transition of hurricane Alex (2004): An observational perspective   Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. McTaggart-Cowan, C. A. Davis, and M. T. Montgomery 4:15 PM 10B.4 Simulation of the formation of Hurricane Isabel (2003)   Liguang Wu, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Braun and J. Qu 4:30 PM 10B.5 Vorcity-Based Detection of Tropical Cyclogenesis   Michelle M. Hite, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa, P. Cunningham, J. J. O'Brien, and P. D. Reasor 4:45 PM 10B.6 Generation and propagation of MCCs and a mesovortex associated with an African easterly wave as a precursor of Hurricane Alberto (2000)   Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and K. E. Robertson and C. M. Hill 5:00 PM 10B.7 Evolution of Mesoscale Convective Systems during Tropical Cyclone Formations in the Western North Pacific   Jenny S. N. Hui, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. K. W. Cheung, C. S. Lee, and R. L. Elsberry 5:15 PM 10B.8 Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis�satellite analysis   Raymond M. Zehr, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO
	3:30 PM-5:45 PM, Wednesday, Regency Grand BR 1-3 Session 10C Special Session: CBLAST Hurricane III
Chair: Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
3:30 PM 10C.1 Combining airborne wave observations with WAVEWATCH III model output   Edward J. Walsh, NASA/GSFC, Wallops Island, VA; and C. W. Wright, I. Ginis, Y. Fan, and H. L. Tolman 3:45 PM 10C.2 Surface wave processes in high winds and hurricanes   W. Kendall Melville, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. M. Kleiss and L. Romero 4:00 PM 10C.3 A model of the effect of breaking waves on the air-sea momentum flux   Tobias Kukulka, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and T. Hara and S. E. Belcher 4:15 PM 10C.4 In situ measurements of 3D turbulence in Hurricanes Frances and Ivan using a pressure-sphere anemometer   Richard M. Eckman, NOAA/ARL, Idaho Falls, ID; and R. J. Dobosy, T. W. Strong, and P. G. Hall 4:30 PM 10C.5 Tower and Doppler Radar Observations from the Boundary Layer of Hurricanes Isabel (2003) and Frances (2004)   Sylvie Lorsolo, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder 4:45 PM 10C.6 Preliminary Comparison of DOW and In Situ Wind Measurements in Hurricane Rita   Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander, P. Robinson, and F. Masters 5:00 PM 10C.7 Progress in the study of coherent structures in the hurricane boundary layer   Ralph C. Foster, APL, Univeristy of Washington, Seattle, WA 5:15 PM 10C.8 Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observations of Tropical Cyclones with the Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler   Daniel Esteban Fernandez, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Jelenak, P. S. Chang, R. F. Contreras, T. Chu, P. Asuzu, and J. Carswell 5:30 PM 10C.9 High Resolution Airborne Radar Measurements of Hurricane Isabel   Robert F. Contreras, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA; and D. Esteban Fernandez, P. S. Chang, and P. G. Black
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Wednesday, Big Sur Session 10D Tropical Convection IV
Chair: Stefan N. Tulich, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
3:30 PM 10D.1 Spectral retrieval of latent heating profiles from TRMM PR data.: Algorithm improvement and heating estimates over tropical ocean regions   Shoichi Shige, Osaka Prefecture Univ., Sakai, Osaka, Japan; and Y. N. Takayabu, W. -. K. Tao, and C. L. Shie 3:45 PM 10D.2 Relating radar-derived cloud populations and the vertical structure of heating in equatorial waves   Andrew D. Denno, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND 4:00 PM 10D.3 Vertical distributions of clouds and radiative heating rates in the tropical western Pacific   James H. Mather, PNNL, Richland, WA; and S. A. McFarlane 4:15 PM 10D.4 A statistical study on the relationship between rain top heights and lightning activity over the global tropics utilizing TRMM PR2A25 and LIS data   Yukari N. Takayabu, University of Tokyo/ Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan; and C. Yokoyama and T. Ushio 4:30 PM 10D.5 Estimation of precipitation and latent heating distributions in tropical convection from a combined analysis of passive microwave and spaceborne radar observations   William S. Olson, JCET/Univ of Maryland, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Grecu, C. L. Shie, and S. A. Braun 4:45 PM 10D.6 Simulated convective systems using a cloud resolving model: Impact of large-scale temperature and moisture forcing using observations and GEOS-3 reanalysis   Chung-Lin Shie, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt and Univ. of Maryland, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. Tao, A. Y. Hou, and X. Lin 10D.7 Application of a new multiscale data assimilation: Estimation of local aerosol fluxes on a two-dimensional atmospheric boundary   Yu Zou, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ
Thursday, 27 April 2006
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Thursday, Regency Grand BR 4-6 Session 11A Tropical Cyclone Prediction V - Track
Chair: Robert E. Tuleya, EMC, Norfolk, VA
8:00 AM 11A.1 Prediction of tropical cyclone track forecast error for Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma   James S. Goerss, NRL, Monterey, CA 8:15 AM 11A.2 Sensitivity of tropical cyclone track forecasts to convective momentum transport in the NOGAPS Emanuel cumulus parameterization   Timothy F. Hogan, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Pauley 8:30 AM 11A.3 The Impact of Dropsonde Data from DOTSTAR on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting   Kun-Hsuan Chou, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, P. H. Lin, S. Aberson, M. Peng, and T. Nakazawa 8:45 AM 11A.4 Improvement of tropical cyclone track forecasting using a model-constrained 3D-Var data assimilation scheme   Xudong Liang, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and B. Wang, J. Chan, Y. Duan, D. Wang, Z. Zeng, and L. Ma 9:00 AM 11A.5 Impact of AMSU and AMSR-E Measurements on Hurricane Prediction   Tong Zhu, Colorado State Univ./CIRA at NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and F. Weng, Q. Liu, and N. Surgi 9:15 AM 11A.6 Evaluation of causes of large 96-h and 120-h track errors in the western North Pacific   Kathryn Anne Payne, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Kehoe, M. A. Boothe, and R. L. Elsberry 9:30 AM 11A.7 An Experiment on the Impact of Initial Fields and Boundary Conditions on the Typhoon Track Simulation in the Northwest Pacific Ocean   Der-Song Chen, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. F. Hsiao, K. N. Huang, and T. C. Yeh 9:45 AM 11A.8 Tropical cyclone modeling in a probabilistic framework   William E. Lewis, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli
	8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Regency Grand Ballroom Session 11B Tropical Cyclone Structure IV
Chair: Paul E. Roundy, NOAA/CIRES Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division, Boulder, CO
8:00 AM 11B.1 Buoyancy and the warm-core structure of hurricanes   Roger K. Smith, Department of Physics, University of Munich, Munich, Germany 8:15 AM 11B.2 A Lagrangian View of a Simulated Hurricane   Michael T. Montgomery, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and T. A. Cram, J. Persing, and S. A. Braun 8:30 AM 11B.3 The Effect of External Forcing on the Structure Change of Tropical Cyclones   Yoshio Kurihara, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Yokohama, Japan; and M. Yoshioka 8:45 AM 11B.4 Wavelike Structure of the Rainbands of a Concentric Eyewall Typhoon Revealed from Doppler Radar Observations   Ben J.-D. Jou, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and R. F. Liu 9:00 AM 11B.5 Three-dimensional hurricane structure change prior to landfall as revealed by automated airborne Doppler analyses   John F. Gamache, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. G. Black and F. D. Marks Jr. 9:15 AM 11B.6 Effects of land-sea roughness contrast on tropical cyclone winds   Martin L. M. Wong, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan 9:30 AM 11B.7 Waves in a cloudy vortex   David A. Schecter, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Thursday, Big Sur Session 11C Tropical Cyclone - Large Scale Interaction
Chair: Wayne H. Schubert, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
8:00 AM 11C.1 Incorporation of equatorial wave modes into tropical synoptic meteorology: Is It worth the trouble?   John E. Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Vollaro and C. Schreck 8:15 AM 11C.2 Summertime Synoptic-scale Variability over the Tropical Western Pacific: Role of Extratropical Forcing   Chi-Yung Francis Tam, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI; and T. Li 8:30 AM 11C.3 Comparison of techniques for isolating equatorial Rossby waves in synoptic studies   Carl Schreck III, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY 8:45 AM 11C.4 The influence of tropical cyclone outflow on the Northern Hemisphere subtropical and tropical general circulation   Ross A. Lazear, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan 9:00 AM 11C.5 Role of Large-scale Circulation on Tropical Cyclone Landfall in Japan   Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and K. Rajendran 9:15 AM 11C.6 Possible feedback of tropical cyclone on climate variability   H.-H. Hsu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and A. K. Lo, C. H. Hung, and C. C. Wu 9:30 AM 11C.7 A Study of the Relationship between Mid-Tropospheric Large-scale Circulation Pattern and US Landfall Hurricane Activities   Shangyao Nong, Applied Insurance Research, Inc., Boston, MA 9:45 AM 11C.8 Hunting for Saharan air with the NOAA G-IV jet   Jason P. Dunion, University of Miami/RSMAS/CIMAS - NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. D. Hawkins and C. S. Velden
	8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Thursday, Regency Grand BR 1-3 Session 11D Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Global Observations I
Chair: Song Yang, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, Greenbelt, MD
8:00 AM Welcoming Remarks   8:05 AM 11D.2 Diurnal variation of tropical rain revealed by TRMM   Kenji Nakamura, Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan 8:30 AM 11D.3 Diurnal Variability of Precipitation: Multiple Modes & Ambiguities   Eric A. Smith, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Yang 8:45 AM 11D.4 Ensemble Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Rainfall Diurnal Cycle from TRMM   Song Yang, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, Greenbelt, MD; and E. A. Smith 9:00 AM 11D.5 Eight Years of TRMM Data: Exploring Regional Mechanisms Behind the Diurnal Cycle   Stephen W. Nesbitt, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. Cifelli, S. A. Rutledge, C. Liu, and E. J. Zipser 9:15 AM 11D.6 Diurnal Cycle of Tropical Deep Convection and Anvil Clouds: Global Distribution Using 6 years of TRMM radar and IR data   Chuntao Liu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser 9:30 AM 11D.7 Physical processes controlling warm-season precipitation diurnal cycle in the central U.S   Junhong Wang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Dai, D. Parsons, and X. Z. Liang 9:45 AM 11D.8 Satellite Estimates of the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation   Andrew J. Negri, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. F. Adler and M. Manyin
	10:00 AM, Thursday Coffee Break
	10:25 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand BR 1-3 Session 12D Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Global and Regional Modeling I
Chair: Eric A. Smith, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
10:25 AM 12D.1 Spatial-temporal organization of convection and the diurnal variability of precipitation: A U.S. Continent study   Mitchell W. Moncrieff, NCAR, Boulder, CO 10:50 AM 12D.2 The Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation over the Globe: Observations vs. Model Simulations   Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO 11:15 AM 12D.3 Tropical rainfall diurnal variation in a 20km-mesh atmospheric GCM   Osamu Arakawa, Advanced Earth Science & Technology Organization, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and A. Kitoh 11:30 AM 12D.4 Prediction of the diurnal change of precipitation using a multi model superensemble and TRMM data sets   T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and C. Gnanaseelan and A. Chakraborty 11:45 AM 12D.5 Modeling rainfall diurnal variation of Northern American monsoon core using different spatial resolution   Jialun Li, University of California, Irvine, California; and X. Gao, K. L. Hsu, and S. Sorooshian
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand BR 4-6 Session 12A Special Session:- RAINEX I
Chair: Robert A. Houze, Jr., University of Washington, Seattle, WA
10:30 AM 12A.1 Overview of RAINEX Flight Program   Robert A. Houze Jr., University of Washington, Seattle, WA 10:45 AM 12A.2 Overview of RAINEX Modeling of 2005 Hurricanes   Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL 11:00 AM 12A.3 RAINEX Overview � Airborne Doppler Radar Data   Wen-Chau Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO 11:15 AM 12A.4 Real-Time High-Resolution MM5 and WRF Forecasts during RAINEX   John P. Cangialosi, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen, W. Zhao, W. Wang, and J. Michalakas 11:30 AM 12A.5 Rainbands and secondary eye wall formation as observed in RAINEX   Derek Ortt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen 11:45 AM 12A.6 Tropical cyclone dynamics deduced from ensemble state estimation   Gregory J. Hakim, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. D. Torn
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand Ballroom Session 12B Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge and Fresh-Water Flooding
Chair: Da-Lin Zhang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD
10:30 AM 12B.1 Difference of Rainfall Distribution for Tropical Cyclones Over Land and Ocean and Rainfall Potential Derived from Satellite Observations and Its Implication on Hurricane Landfall Flooding Prediction   Haiyan Jiang, Univ of Maryland, Greenbelt, MD; and J. B. Halverson and J. Simpson 10:45 AM 12B.2 Effect of ocean surface waves on storm surge and coastal flooding   Huiqing Liu, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie, L. J. Pietrafesa, and M. Peng 11:00 AM 12B.3 Factors that contributed to the Hurricane Gaston flooding event in Richmond, Virginia   Zachary G. Brown, Kentucky Mesonet, Bowling Green, KY; and Y. -. L. Lin and M. L. Kaplan 11:15 AM 12B.4 A look at Tropical Storm Gaston flooding in Virginia   John Billet, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA VA; and K. Lynch 11:30 AM 12B.5 The Effect of Shear and Topography on Rainfall Forecasting with R-CLIPER   Manuel Lonfat, Risk Management Solutions Ltd., London, United Kingdom; and R. Rogers, F. D. Marks, T. Marchok, and A. Boissonnade 11:45 AM 12B.6 Unexpectedly heavy rainfall due to mesoscale features Induced by a landfalling and non-transitioning tropical storm   Alan F. Srock, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and J. E. Molinari
	10:30 AM-12:15 PM, Thursday, Big Sur Session 12C Special Session: Predictability of the North American monsoon and NAME
Chair: Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO
10:30 AM 12C.1 Influence of the North American Monsoon Experiment 2004 enhanced soundings on NCEP operational analyses   Kingtse Mo, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Higgins and J. Woollen 10:45 AM 12C.2 Analysis of the 13 July gulf surge event during the 2004 North American Monsoon Experiment   Peter J. Rogers, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson 11:00 AM 12C.3 On the structure and efficacy of gulf surges   Simona Bordoni, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and B. Stevens 11:15 AM 12C.4 Analysis of Heat and Moisture Budgets from the NAME Enhanced Sounding Network   Paul E. Ciesielski, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson 11:30 AM 12C.5 NAME CPT Project - Issues for warm season prediction   J. E. Schemm, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. -. H. Y. Soo-Hyun.Yoo@noaa.gov, L. W. Lindsey.N.Williams@noaa.gov, and D. S. Gutzler 11:45 AM 12C.6 Seasonal and interannual variability of moisture fluxes over the Intra-Americas Sea and associations with rainfall   Alberto M. Mestas-Nu�ez, CIMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. B. Enfield and C. Zhang 12:00 PM 12C.7 Variations in the daily cycle of winds along the east coast of the Gulf of Mexico   Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and L. M. Rodriguez-Manzanet and R. H. Johnson
	12:00 PM, Thursday Lunch Break
	1:25 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand BR 1-3 Session 13D Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Global Observations II
Chair: Kenji Nakamura, Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Nagoya Japan
1:25 PM 13D.1 The diurnal cycle of warm season rainfall frequency over continents   R. E. Carbone, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych, A. Laing, T. Lang, T. D. Keenan, J. D. Tuttle, and C. -. C. Wang 1:50 PM 13D.2 Diurnal variability of vertical structure from a TRMM passive microwave "virtual radar" retrieval   Dennis J. Boccippio, NASA / Marshall Space Flight Center XD-11, Huntsville, AL; and W. A. Petersen and D. Cecil 2:15 PM 13D.3 Diurnal cycle of clouds and how they affect polar orbiting satellite data   Donald Wylie, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 2:30 PM 13D.4 Diurnal variations in tropical diabatic heating profiles   Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and M. H. Zhang and P. E. Ciesielski 2:45 PM 13D.5 The impact of rainfall assimilation on the NASA GEOS Reanalysis: Diurnal variability of the hydrologic cycle and radiative fluxes   Xin Lin, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. Hou and S. Zhang
	1:30 PM-2:45 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand BR 4-6 Session 13A Special Session: RAINEX II
Chair: Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
13A.1 Hurricane Katrina on 25 August 2005 : airborne radar observations and numerical modeling   Frank Roux, Laboratoire d'Aerologie (CNRS-UPS), Toulouse, France 1:30 PM 13A.2 Evidence and impacts of dry air intrusion in Hurricane Ophelia: Observations from RAINEX   Bradley F. Smull, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze 1:45 PM 13A.3 Rainband structures observed in RAINEX   Deanna A. Hence, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze 2:00 PM 13A.4 Aircraft observations of concentric eyewall formation and evolution in Hurricane Rita on 22 September 2005   Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and K. L. Corbosiero, J. Molinari, and R. Rogers 2:15 PM 13A.5 Secondary eyewall structure in Hurricane Rita: Results from RAINEX   Jasmine Cetrone, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze and M. M. Bell 2:30 PM 13A.6 Observed vorticity evolution in Hurricane Rita (2005)   Michael Bell, NCAR/EOL & Colorado State University, Boulder, CO; and W. C. Lee and J. Cetrone
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand Ballroom Session 13B Tropical Cyclogenesis III
Chair: Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki Japan
1:30 PM 13B.1 Tropical cyclogenesis as revealed by the NOGAPS analysis   Bing Fu, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. S. Peng, T. Li, and T. F. Hogan 1:45 PM 13B.2 Rossby wave radiation from non-translating and from moving vortices   Kyle D. Krouse, Columbia University, New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel and L. M. Polvani 2:00 PM 13B.3 Objectively Determined Model-Derived Parameters associated with Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Formation   Christy Cowan, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. Harr and G. Elliott 2:15 PM 13B.4 Numerical simulations of the genesis of Hurricane Gabrielle (2001)   Kate Musgrave, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. A. Davis and M. T. Montgomery 2:30 PM 13B.5 Quantifying morphologic features of remotely-sensed data for its use in a tropical cyclogenesis predictor   Miguel Pineros, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie 2:45 PM 13B.6 Genesis and decay of a tropical storm in strong vertical shear   Jaclyn D. Frank, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
	1:30 PM-2:45 PM, Thursday, Big Sur Session 13C Ocean-Atmosphere
Chair: Qing Wang, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA
1:30 PM 13C.1 Surface Turbulent Stress Derived from GPS Dropsondes   Mark A. Bourassa, COAPS/Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL 1:45 PM 13C.2 The VASCO-CIRENE experiment   Jean-Philippe Duvel, Laboratoire de M�t�otrologie Dynamique, Paris, France; and J. Vialard 2:00 PM 13C.3 International Ocean Database Management System for the China Seas and Adjacent Ocean (IODBMS)   Yan Sun, Tianjin Association for Science and Technology, Tianjin 300202, China 2:15 PM 13C.4 Role of Indian and Pacific Ocean air-sea coupling in tropical atmospheric variability   Renguang Wu, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD; and B. P. Kirtman 2:30 PM 13C.5 How does the air-sea interaction affect potential climate predictability?   Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and W. Y. Wu 13C.6 High resolution climate modelling of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropics   Julia M. Slingo, NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
	3:00 PM, Thursday Coffee Break
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand BR 4-6 Session 14A Tropical Cyclone Prediction VI - Intensity
Chair: Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter United Kingdom
3:30 PM 14A.1 Tropical cyclone genesis in TC-LAPS: The importance of sufficient net deep convection and system scale cyclonic absolute vorticty   Kevin J. Tory, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and N. E. Davidson and M. T. Montgomery 3:45 PM 14A.2 Validation of TC-LAPS structure forecasts of some significant 2004�2005 US hurricanes   Noel E. Davidson, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and L. J. Rikus, R. A. Dare, C. I. W. Tingwell, and H. C. Weber 4:00 PM 14A.3 Statistical tropical cyclone intensity forecast improvements using GOES and aircraft reconnaissance data   Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO 4:15 PM 14A.4 On the Calculation of Vertical Shear: An Operational Perspective   Jamie R. Rhome, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and C. Sisko and R. D. Knabb 4:30 PM 14A.5 Recent updates to SHIPS-MI   Thomas A. Jones, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and D. J. Cecil 4:45 PM 14A.6 On the pressure-wind relationship in tropical cyclones   Harry C. Weber, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany 5:00 PM 14A.7 Estimating the likelihood of rapid intensification in the Atlantic and E. Pacific basins using SHIPS model data   John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria 5:15 PM 14A.8 Equilibrium translation model � a key to prediction of tropical hurricane intensity   Irakli G. Shekriladze, Georgian Technical Univ., Tbilisi, Georgia
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand Ballroom Session 14B Tropical Cyclogenesis IV
Chair: Lance F. Bosart, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
3:30 PM 14B.1 A very high resolution numerical simulation and analysis of vortical hot towers and their aggregate effects in the genesis of Hurricane Diana (1984)   J. Marc Hidalgo, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery 3:45 PM 14B.2 Convectively Generated Hot, Vortical Towers During the Genesis of Typhoon Nari (2001)   Da-Lin Zhang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and L. Tian and A. Wang 4:00 PM 14B.3 Contributions of the African Easterly Waves and the Northern Vortices to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation   Jodi Beattie, Department of Physics, United States Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and R. L. Elsberry and P. A. Harr 4:15 PM 14B.4 A case study of a continental mesoscale convective vortex that developed attributes of an incipient tropical disturbance   Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY 4:30 PM 14B.5 An evaluation and comparison of predictions of tropical cyclogenesis by three global forecast models   Richard J. Pasch, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL; and P. A. Harr, L. A. Avila, J. G. Jiing, and G. Elliott 4:45 PM 14B.6 Characteristics of the early stages of tropical cyclones as viewed with microwave data   Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Tiyan, Guam; and M. Lander 5:00 PM 14B.7 Axisymmetric tropical cyclogenesis via a single convective ring   Thomas Frisius, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universit�t Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt am Main, Germany 14B.8 An Overview of the Stages of Genesis of Tropical Storm Gert   Krystal M. Valde, University of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL; and M. L. Black and R. F. Rogers
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Thursday, Big Sur Session 14C Climate Dynamics and Hydrologic Cycle
Chair: Harry H. Hendon, BMRC, Melbounre, Vic. Australia
3:30 PM 14C.1 Who Does the Vertical Transport of Heat in the Tropical Pacific: ENSO or Hurricanes?   De-Zheng Sun, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO 3:45 PM 14C.2 Eddy-Influences on Hadley Circulations: Theory and Simulations with an Idealized GCM   Tapio Schneider, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and C. C. Walker 4:00 PM 14C.3 Teleconnections from Tropics to Northern Extratropics Through a Southerly Conveyor   Zhuo Wang, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and C. -. P. Chang, B. Wang, and F. F. Jin 4:15 PM 14C.4 Nature of Asian monsoon precipitation   Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos, C. Schumacher, and R. A. Houze 4:30 PM 14C.5 Cloud microphysics, dynamics, and free tropospheric water vapor   Steven C. Sherwood, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and C. Meyer, E. R. Kursinski, and W. G. Read 4:45 PM 14C.6 Diurnal variation of upper tropospheric humidity over the tropics and its relations to convective activities   Eui-Seok Chung, Seoul National Univ., Seoul, South Korea; and B. J. Sohn and J. Schmetz 5:00 PM 14C.7 Evaluation of Tropical Upper Troposphere hydrological Processes derived from ECMWF analyses and Forecast with EOS MLS Measurements   Jui-Lin Li, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser, J. H. Jiang, and A. M. Tompkins 5:15 PM 14C.8 Variations of tropical deep convective systems with sea surface temperature and precipitation efficiency   Bing Lin, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and A. Fan, L. H. Chambers, and P. Minnis
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand BR 1-3 Session 14D Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Regional Observations
Chair: Gregory J. Tripoli, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI
3:30 PM Introductory Remarks   3:35 PM 14D.2 Gravity wave mechanisms in propagating diurnal convection   Brian Mapes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL 4:00 PM 14D.3 Diurnal propagating precipitating systems to the north of New Guinea Island: In-situ observation of internal structure and ambient atmosphere   Masaki Katsumata, Institute of Observational Research for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and K. Yoneyama and H. Kubota 4:15 PM 14D.4 Observational strategy for diurnal to intraseasonal rainfall variability study over Sumatera Island using the JEPP/GEOSS radar-profiler network   Shuichi Mori, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and H. Jun-Ichi, T. Sasaki, P. Wu, and M. D. Yamanaka 4:30 PM 14D.5 The diurnal cycle of convection over the northern South China Sea   Steven L. Aves, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson 4:45 PM 14D.6 Diurnal variation of precipitation observed over Palau in the western Pacific   Hisayuki Kubota, Institute of Observational Research for Global Change/ Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and R. Shirooka, T. Ushiyama, T. Chuda, K. K. Reddy, M. Katsumata, K. Yoneyama, K. Yasunaga, Q. Moteki, N. Sato, M. Fujita, and N. Suginohara 5:00 PM 14D.7 Diurnal cycle characteristics of precipitation in the east Pacific   Robert Cifelli, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and S. W. Nesbitt, S. A. Rutledge, W. A. Petersen, and S. E. Yuter 5:15 PM 14D.8 Diurnal variation of clouds and precipitation over tropical South America: interactions between propagating and in-situ cloud systems   Thomas M. Rickenbach, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA
	7:00 PM, Thursday Shuttle Buses from the Hyatt to the Monterey Bay Aquarium
	7:30 PM, Thursday Strolling Reception: The Monterey Bay Aquarium
Friday, 28 April 2006
	8:25 AM-9:45 AM, Friday, Regency Grand BR 1-3 Session 15D Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Global and Regional modeling II
Chair: Eric A. Smith, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
8:25 AM 15D.1 Diurnal cycles of precipitation in observations and GCM simulations   Kenneth P. Bowman, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 8:50 AM 15D.2 Diurnal variations of precipitation over land: A challenge to models   D. A. Randall, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 9:15 AM 15D.3 Diurnal Modulation of Tropical Cyclone Intensity   Gregory J. Tripoli, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 15D.4 The diurnal cycle observed by Meteosat-8 and simulated by a climate model   Anthony Slingo, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and R. Comer and R. Allan 9:30 AM 15D.5 Diurnal Variation of Global Precipitation and Water-Vapor Budget   Tsing-Chang (Mike) Chen, Iowa State University, Ames, IA
	8:30 AM-10:00 AM, Friday, Regency Grand BR 4-6 Session 15A Tropical Cyclone Prediction VII - Intensity
Chair: Harry C. Weber, University of Munich, Munich Germany
8:30 AM 15A.1 Accuracy of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts in the North Pacific and Atlantic   Mark A. Boothe, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and T. Lambert, J. Blackerby, and R. L. Elsberry 8:45 AM 15A.2 A Statistical Atlantic Hurricane Model to Forecast 6-hour and 24-hour Intensity Changes   Kevin T. Law, Marshall University, Huntington, WV 9:00 AM 15A.3 A statistical intensity model consensus for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center   Charles R. Sampson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. A. Knaff and M. DeMaria 9:15 AM 15A.4 Use of radar data for TC initialization and predictions   Jin-Luen Lee, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald, W. C. Lee, and W. Wang 9:30 AM 15A.5 STEADY-STATE HURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE WRF MODEL: COMPARISON TO MPI THEORY AND SENSITIVITY TO PBL AND SURFACE FLUX PARAMETERIZATION   Kevin A. Hill, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann 9:45 AM 15A.6 Enhanced Tropical Cyclone Monitoring with MODIS and OLS   Steven D. Miller, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Hawkins, K. Richardson, T. F. Lee, and F. J. Turk
	8:30 AM-10:15 AM, Friday, Regency Grand Ballroom Session 15B Tropical Cyclone Intensity III
Chair: Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA
8:30 AM 15B.1 Internal dynamic control of hurricane intensity change: The dual nature of potential vorticity mixing   James Kossin, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and W. H. Schubert, C. M. Rozoff, and P. J. Mulero 8:45 AM 15B.2 The role of environmental inertial stability in tropical cyclone intensification: Asymmetric environment   Eric D. Rappin, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and G. J. Tripoli and M. C. Morgan 9:00 AM 15B.3 Robust and interpretable statistical models for predicting the intensification of tropical cyclones   Kyriakos C. Chatzidimitriou, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. W. Anderson and M. DeMaria 9:15 AM 15B.4 Interaction of hurricane and cloud scales: contribution to hurricane intensity   L. Stefanova, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. Krishnamurti and S. Pattnaik 9:30 AM 15B.5 Numerical experiments on the predictability of tropical-cyclone intensification   Sang Van Nguyen, Department of Physics, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith 9:45 AM 15B.6 Rapid Intensity Change in Hurricane Lili (2002)   M�licie Desflots, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL 10:00 AM 15B.7 Response of convection to hurricane-like horizontal and vertical shears   Christopher M. Rozoff, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and W. D. Terwey, M. T. Montgomery, and W. H. Schubert
	8:30 AM-10:00 AM, Friday, Big Sur Session 15C Tropical Cyclones and Climate IV - Interannual/Decadal Variability
Chair: David J. Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM
8:30 AM 15C.1 Mechanisms for El Nino and La Nina induced anomalies in tropical cyclone formation, intensity, and motion in the northwest Pacific   Tom Murphree, NPS, Monterey, CA; and B. W. Ford 8:45 AM 15C.2 ENSO and Genesis Potential Index in Reanalysis and AGCMs   Suzana J. Camargo, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY; and K. A. Emanuel and A. H. Sobel 9:00 AM 15C.2 Variability in global scale circulations and their impacts on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity   Mathew Rosencrans, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. Harr 9:15 AM 15C.3 ENSO and atmospheric energetics along the tropical storm track   Pang-chi Hsu, National Taiwan Normal Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Tsou and H. -. H. Hsu 9:30 AM 15C.4 Interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity over the eastern North Pacific   Peng Wu, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and P. S. Chu 9:45 AM 15C.5 Interdecadal Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity   Kin Sik Liu, City Univ. of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan
	10:00 AM, Friday Coffee Break
	10:30 AM-12:30 PM, Friday, Regency Grand BR 4-6 Session 16A Tropical Cyclone Prediction VIII - Model Sensitivity
Chair: Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA
10:30 AM 16A.1 Sensitivity of numerical simulations of Hurricane Emily (2005) to cumulus and microphysical parameterizations in the WRF model   Xuanli Li, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu 10:45 AM 16A.2 Near real time global optimum interpolated microwave SSTs: applications to hurricane intensity forecasting   Chelle Gentemann, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and F. Wentz and M. DeMaria 11:00 AM 16A.3 Tropical Storm Talas - Formation and Impacts at Kwajalein Atoll   Tom Wright, 3D Research Corporation, APO, AP 16A.4 Tropical Cyclone Simulation Using a Solution-Adaptive Grid Model   Thomas Dunn, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang 11:15 AM 16A.5 The Use of Dynamic Grid Adaptation Technique in Tropical Storm Prediction   Zafer Boybeyi, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and M. Kafatos, N. Ahmad, R. Gautam, G. Cervone, and D. Sun 11:30 AM 16A.6 Sensitivity of high-resolution tropical cyclone intensity forecasts to surface flux parameterization   Chi-Sann Liou, NRL, Monterey, CA 11:45 AM 16A.7 A tropical cyclone rainfall climatology-persistence model for the Taiwan area   Kevin K. W. Cheung, National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. R. Huang and C. S. Lee 12:00 PM 16A.8 Sensitivities of Intensification and Eyewall Evolution of the Simulated Hurricane Isabel (2003) to Different Microphysics Schemes in the Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) Model   Jainn J. Shi, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and W. -. K. Tao
	10:30 AM-12:30 PM, Friday, Regency Grand Ballroom Session 16B Tropical Cyclone Intensity IV
Chair: Michael Montgomery, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
10:30 AM 16B.1 Preliminary Field Review of Automated Intensity Estimates   Caroline A. Bower, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI; and K. Viault, J. Roach, and J. Jaykoski 10:45 AM 16B.2 Impacts of Nucleating Aerosols on the Evolution of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone   Henian Zhang, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. M. McFarquhar, S. M. Saleeby, and W. R. Cotton 11:00 AM 16B.3 Impact of Dissipative Heating on Tropical Cyclone Predictions   Yi Jin, SAIC, monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng 16B.4 Estimating Surface Wind Fields in Tropical Cyclones Using Infrared Satellite Imagery   Howard Berger, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. Kossin, J. A. Knaff, T. Cram, C. S. Velden, J. Hawkins, and R. J. Murnane 11:15 AM 16B.5 Environmental dynamical control of tropical cyclone intensity�An observational study   Zhihua Zeng, International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Wang, G. J. Holland, C. C. Wu, and Y. Duan 11:30 AM 16B.6 Generalizing the axisymmetric approach to hurricane intensity   John Persing, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery 11:45 AM 16B.7 Extreme horizontal winds measured by dropwindsondes in hurricanes   Sim Aberson, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL, FL; and D. Stern 12:00 PM 16B.8 Extreme vertical winds measured by dropwindsondes in hurricanes   Daniel P. Stern, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. D. Aberson
	10:30 AM-12:30 PM, Friday, Big Sur Session 16C Tropical Cyclones and Climate V - Atlantic Basin
Chair: John A. Knaff, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
10:30 AM 16C.1 Comparing two active Atlantic hurricane eras: Are the differences real or simply due to improved observations?   Stanley B. Goldenberg, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. J. Neumann and C. W. Landsea 16C.2 Recurvature and landfall of Atlantic hurricanes and their relationship to the NAO: An update   Brian F. Owens, Risk Management Solutions Limited, London, United Kingdom 10:45 AM 16C.3 Atlantic Basin, US and Caribbean Landfall Activity Rates over the 2006-2010 Period   Auguste Boissonnade, Risk Management Solutions, Newark, CA; and M. Lonfat and R. Muir-Wood 11:00 AM 16C.4 New evidence for a long-term relationship between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and African dust outbreaks   Amato Evan, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden 11:15 AM 16C.6 Characteristics of tropical cyclone rainfall in the United States   Byron E. Gleason, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC 11:30 AM 16C.6 Genesis of Atlantic tropical storms from African Easterly Waves�a comparison of two contrasting years   Susanna Hopsch, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY 11:45 AM 16C.7 A comparison of hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Camille (1969)   Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 12:00 PM 16C.8 A synthetic trapped-fetch wave climatology for the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific   Allan W. MacAfee, MSC, Dartmouth, NS, Canada
	10:30 AM-12:30 PM, Friday, Regency Grand BR 1-3 Session 16D Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Global and Regional Studies
Chair: Song Yang, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, Greenbelt, MD
10:30 AM 16D.1 The diurnal cycles of water and energy over North America as simulated by three reanalyses   A.C. Ruane, ECPC, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, CA; and J. O. Roads and M. Kanamitsu 10:45 AM 16D.2 Observational and numerical studies of coherent warm-season rainfall over the Bay of Bengal   Changhai Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. W. Moncrieff and J. D. Tuttle 11:00 AM 16D.3 Modeling the diurnal change of cloud cover using multiple global models and ISCCP/TRMM data sets   Arindam Chakraborty, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti 11:15 AM 16D.4 Diurnal variations of the water cycle in the Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework   Jiun-dar Chern, GEST, Greenbelt, MD; and W. -. K. Tao and X. Lin 11:30 AM 16D.5 Observations during EPIC2001�Diurnal cycle in the East Pacific   Carlos L�pez Carrillo, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond 11:45 AM 16D.6 Radar-observed characteristics of the diurnal cycle of precipitation during NAME 2004   Timothy J. Lang, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. W. Nesbitt, R. C. Cifelli, S. A. Rutledge, D. A. Ahijevych, and R. E. Carbone 12:00 PM 16D.7 Diurnal and semidiurnal surface wind variations over the tropical Pacific Ocean   Rei Ueyama, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Deser and J. M. Wallace 12:15 PM Concluding Remarks
	12:30 PM, Friday Announcement of Max Eaton Prize and Conference Conclusion

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