With help from Quint Forgey, Connor O’Brien, Maggie Miller and Daniel Lippman

Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint

“The next 48 hours will be decisive.”

That’s what OLENA SOTNYK, an adviser to Ukraine's deputy prime minister, told a Twitter Space audience organized by the German Marshall Fund in Washington, D.C., today. NatSec Daily was on the call, and for the first time we heard not just frustration with events — particularly the West’s anemic response to Russia’s war on Ukraine, in her view — but a hint of resignation about her outgunned nation’s prospects in the war.

Should Russia deploy more of its military power, it is “almost not possible” for Ukraine to win, she said in a response to NatSec Daily’s question. “It will be very hard to defend against that,” which is why she called on the United States and its partners to immediately send weapons alongside humanitarian and economic aid. “We are on our territory. That’s why we are telling you we’re ready to fight.”

The Ukrainian resistance has proved more formidable than many — namely those in the Kremlin — initially anticipated. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense has claimed that its forces killed around 3,000 Russians and took out many of its air and ground assets.

While it's too early to make any large strategic assessments, it's clear the situation grew more dire over the last 24 hours.

Russian troops pushed their way into Kyiv as bullets and explosions rang out in the northern part of the capital. Missiles and rockets continued to pockmark buildings and roads throughout the city. Satellite imagery showed 90 Russian helicopters have lined up in rural Belarus, just under 100 miles away from Kyiv. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY released a video on his official Telegram channel to prove he had not fled the country, despite the fact that he is a top target for Russia’s forces.

“Their objective is to encircle the capital, to secure control of the population and change the regime," Sir JIM HOCKENHULL, the British chief of defense intelligence, told reporters today.

For the moment, some Ukrainian officials continue to project confidence. “Kyiv is fully under control,” Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.S., OKSANA MARKAROVA, said during a press conference today. “We are going to win for sure!” Ukrainian Defense Minister OLEKSII REZNIKOV said in a statement posted to Facebook.

But officials that NatSecDaily and our colleagues spoke with didn’t echo that sentiment.

White House press secretary JEN PSAKI during her Friday news conference said "Kyiv falling is a real possibility." Russia has only sent about a third of the troops it amassed outside Ukraine into the country thus far, a senior U.S. defense official said, implying that there’s much more Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN can throw at the Ukrainians. A European official told us to expect the “rapid” fall of the capital and alluded to a situation where Ukraine could split in a manner reminiscent of Yugoslavia’s dissolution

Asked specifically if Kyiv would hold, NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG declined to answer except to say, "I will pay my respect to the Ukrainian armed forces, which are really proving their bravery and their courage by fighting and standing up against the much larger invading Russian force." He did, however, announce that alliance members will send more air-defense assets and weapons to Ukraine and that elements of the NATO Response Force would soon deploy to the bloc’s eastern front.

But even that is too little, too late for Sotnyk. She was asking — pleading — for the West to send more materiel, help impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine and cut off Russia from the global financial system.

If all of that doesn’t happen within the next two days, Sotnyk fears the country she loves and is fighting for could fall into Putin’s hands. “Ukraine is now a test for the whole world,” she said. “We have not too much time.”

The Inbox

SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures and assessments with a healthy dose of skepticism.

War in Ukraine:

— As of 3 p.m. local time, Ukraine’s military destroyed 80 tanks, 516 different armored hercules, 10 airplanes, seven helicopters and killed around 2,800 Russian troops (Ukraine’s deputy defense minister)

— Russian troops are attacking from the north toward Kyiv, from the northeast, from the east and the south (U.K. Ministry of Defense)

— Russian IL-76 with paratroopers on board landed at Gomel in Belarus (Ukraine Embassy in U.S.)

— Russia has reached the line of Kherson - Nova Kakhova - Kakhova to hold the dam of North Crimean Canal and establish provision of water to Crimea (Ukraine Embassy in U.S.)

— Ukrainian MiG-29 destroyed a Russian Su-35 (Ukraine Embassy in U.S.)

— Ukraine lost the city of Konotop (Ukraine Embassy in U.S.)

— There’s an ongoing fight for control of the city of Melitopol (Ukraine Embassy in U.S.)

— Russia has deployed additional units in the direction of Skadovsk (Ukraine Embassy in U.S.)

— Ukraine’s air-defense systems destroyed “several” ballistic missiles and “at least” two Russian aircraft (Ukraine Embassy in U.S.)

— Intelligence suggests Russia plans to conduct a false flag operation to “dehumanize” Ukrainians (Ukraine’s foreign minister)

— “Enemy reconnaissance and sabotage groups operate insidiously, disguising themselves in civilian clothes and infiltrating cities in order to destabilize the situation by carrying out sabotage operations” (General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)

— Russia has only sent one-third of the troops amassed outside Ukraine into the country (senior U.S. defense official)

— Russia has launched around 200 ballistic and cruise missiles into Ukraine (senior U.S. defense official)

U.S., EU and NATO:

— NATO countries sending more weapons and air-defense systems to Ukraine (NATO secretary general)

— NATO Response Force deploying to alliance’s eastern front (NATO secretary general)

PUTIN CALLS FOR REGIME CHANGE IN UKRAINE: For a brief moment it looked like the leaders of Russia and Ukraine might negotiate an end to this war — before Putin told the world his real ambition.

Zelenskyy offered to “sit at the negotiating table to stop the death of people” during a late-night address. But Putin responded by calling on Ukraine’s military to overthrow the Ukrainian government before engaging in any talks.

“Take power into your own hands,” Putin said in an opening video statement. It would be easier for Russia “to come to an agreement than with this gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis, who occupied Kyiv and took the entire Ukrainian people hostage.” To be explicit, that was Putin openly and brazenly calling for regime change in Ukraine.

SERGEY LAVROV, Russia’s longtime foreign minister, weighed in by saying Moscow won’t talk to Kyiv until Zelenskyy’s administration surrenders.

The Guardian’s ANDREW ROTH surmised, claiming that Ukrainian forces deposed the government in Kyiv “may be how [Putin] explains Zelensky’s eventual overthrow, if Russia achieves its goals.” A spokesperson for Zelenskyy told reporters that Kyiv and Moscow are discussing where and how to hold talks. Earlier in the day, Zelenskyy appealed to Israel to both host and mediate a potential discussion.

U.S. AND EU FREEZE PUTIN AND LAVROV’S ASSETS: In a symbolic but no-less-serious move, the U.S. joined the European Union in freezing Putin and Lavrov’s assets but didn’t ban them from traveling to and within the bloc.

"In alignment with the decision by our European allies, the United States will join them in sanctioning President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov and members of the Russian national security team,” Psaki said. The White House said further details on the sanctions would be forthcoming.

"This is an important step," the EU’s foreign affairs chief JOSEP BORRELL said in brief remarks, noting that the only other world leaders under similar sanctions are BASHAR ASSAD in Syria and ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO in Belarus.

That won’t be enough to placate the Ukrainians, though, who are calling for the West to kick Russia out of SWIFT and impose even harder penalties on the country.

U.S. URGED CHINA TO STOP RUSSIA: The Biden administration held multiple meetings with Chinese officials urging them to pressure Russia into pulling back from invading Ukraine, The New York Times’ EDWARD WONG reported.

“Each time, the Chinese officials, including the foreign minister and the ambassador to the United States, rebuffed the Americans, saying they did not think an invasion was in the works. After one diplomatic exchange in December, U.S. officials got intelligence showing Beijing had shared the information with Moscow, telling the Russians that the United States was trying to sow discord — and that China would not try to impede Russian plans and actions, the officials said,” Wong wrote.

With Russia increasingly cut off from the Western world, Beijing has turned into more of a lifeline for Moscow. China has tried to walk a fine line between neither showing support for, nor inclination against, Putin’s war on Ukraine. In a call reported by Chinese state-run media, Chinese leader XI JINPING told Putin that the Russian should seek a negotiated end to the fighting.

However, China can’t replace what Russia will lose from its severed economic ties to the West, namely the number of semiconductors that will no longer flow into Russia. And there are already reports of Chinese state banks restricting financing for Russian commodities.

Still, China had a choice to speak loudly and openly against a Russian invasion of Ukraine. It didn’t.

BIDEN ADMIN DEBATES ARMING UKRAINE: Foreign Policy’s JACK DETSCH and ROBBIE GRAMER report on a Biden administration fight over whether to further arm Ukraine now that the war with Russia has begun.

“The administration’s internal debate, described by three officials and congressional aides, has heated up, with some officials expressing caution that arming Ukrainian resistance could make the United States legally a co-combatant to a wider war with Russia and escalate tensions between the two nuclear powers,” they wrote. “The debate partly centers on the legal basis of a U.S. president’s war power authorities and underscores how concerned U.S. national security planners are that Ukraine’s government could swiftly fall.”

If Russia attempts to overthrow Kyiv, which Putin all but said, “some aides on Capitol Hill believe Biden should seek approval from Congress before sending weapons and other military aid to Ukrainian forces. Some international law experts believe that delivering such arms during an active war could allow Russia to make the case that the United States is legally a party to the conflict.”

On Tuesday, we reported on a bipartisan effort to push Biden to seek congressional approval for sending troops to Ukraine, which the president to date has repeatedly taken off the table.

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: It’s not a lighthearted time, so we’re going to skip this feature for the week. We hope you understand and pour one out for Ukraine.

IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio.

Flashpoints

SPORTS AND ENTERTAINMENT WORLD OSTRACIZES RUSSIA: Formula 1 won’t hold the Russian Grand Prix. The Champions League final, one of world soccer’s premier events, won’t take place in St. Petersburg, Putin’s hometown. And a Russian contestant won’t participate at the next Eurovision Song Contest.

These are major money-making and prestige-giving events. Russia’s ban from hosting them, or participating in them, will isolate Moscow from global culture along with the global community.

Authoritarian regimes like using popular events — say, the Olympics — to bolster and whitewash their reputations. Russia won’t soon get the chance to rebuild its image in the eyes of the world.

Keystrokes

UKRAINE HAS FENDED OFF WORST CYBER PREDICTIONS: Two days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the besieged nation seems to have escaped some of the more damaging cyberattacks predicted by officials, such as turning out the lights and cutting other essential services. But there could be a more practical and malicious reason that Moscow has so far avoided unleashing the full extent of its cyber capabilities, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in.

“Usually Russian doctrine is to go after telecom, electricity and government services as a precursor to an invasion,” said JAMES LEWIS, the director of the Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I’m a little surprised, normally they would do something, but the bad news is you don’t attack peoples’ electrical grid if you think you’re going to own it in a few days.”

The decision not to disrupt power grids, pipelines and other critical infrastructure could also be a decision not to unduly disrupt the lives of Ukrainian civilians in the event of a long Russian occupation. MARK MONTGOMERY, senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that while Russia may not care as much about fixing systems, keeping the lights on could help them stay in control of Ukraine.

“I imagine they are not that interested in permanently damaging electrical power grids,” Montgomery said. “If you break it you’ve got to fix it, but if they break it they have got to occupy it and that is going to create a problem for them and make them even less popular with the Ukrainian citizenry.”

While critical infrastructure has mostly been spared by hackers so far, Ukraine has not been immune against attacks. Massive distributed denial of service attacks were launched twice in the last week against Ukrainian government and banking websites, with the Biden administration blaming the first attack on Russian government hackers. Ukraine’s Computer Emergency Response Team warned in a Facebook post Friday that a Belarus-based hacking group known as “UNC1151” is carrying out a campaign to target Ukrainian military personnel and related individuals with malicious phishing emails.

Given the previous attacks, there is still a high likelihood that Ukraine will see some level of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure.

“I don’t think their intent is to destroy infrastructure, but rather to disrupt it while they maneuver their forces,” Montgomery said.

The Complex

LCS SETBACK: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) note that the Littoral Combat Ship just received some even more bad news — a damning report by the Government Accountability Office.

The fleet of coastal vessels, built by Lockheed Martin and Austal USA, “has not demonstrated the operational capabilities it needs to perform its mission,” GAO concluded. “Operational testing has found several significant challenges, including the ship’s ability to defend itself if attacked and failure rates of mission-essential equipment.”

The vessels are considered central to the Navy’s vision for a larger fleet. “LCS is in that mix,” Chief of Naval Operations Adm. MIKE GILDAY said last week in sketching out his vision for a 500-ship Navy.

The congressional auditors said the Navy has pursued most of the recommendations they have made over the years to try to salvage LCS. But lingering challenges remain on maintaining the ships, including “how to obtain technical data” needed to keep the vessels operating.

AIA MIA?: Major defense contractors like Boeing, Lockheed Martin and BAE Systems are withholding their annual dues from the Aerospace Industries Association “over what they consider a lack of leadership from ERIC FANNING, the group’s CEO and president,” our own LEE HUDSON and DANIEL LIPPMAN wrote based on emails they obtained.

“In a February email to AIA Chief Operating Officer PETER PROWITT, representatives from the three companies wrote that they were not receiving an adequate return on investment from the trade association to tackle industry-wide problems, and instead are relying on other groups such as the National Defense Industrial Association and Professional Services Council to better represent their interests,” the two reported. Three industry officials Hudson and Lippman spoke to “claim that Fanning hasn’t effectively voiced concerns on behalf of industry to members of the Congress and the administration.”

An AIA spokesperson said in a statement: “AIA has a strong track record of meeting the priorities of our industry CEOs who set our strategy,” adding “whether it is one company or a handful of members, we are committed to addressing and resolving their questions or concerns when they arise."

On the Hill

EYES ON UKRAINE AID: Congress is gearing up to provide more funding to help Ukraine's military fend off the Russian invasion, but it may be too late for any new cash to make a difference, our colleagues ANDREW DESIDERIO, CONNOR O'BRIEN and JENNIFER SCHOLTES report.

Biden hasn't formally requested more money to respond to the crisis yet, but Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill have vowed to craft supplemental funding legislation that bolsters Ukraine and countries on NATO's eastern edge. That effort, which comes as lawmakers also aim to wrap up a full-year funding package for the Pentagon, could amount to billions in new funding.

"If we are not doing everything possible, we are not doing enough," said Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), who said he told the administration an emergency spending bill would win bipartisan support. "Time is not on our side."

Some lawmakers are skeptical more weapons will tip the balance as Russian forces close in on Kyiv. Furnishing the Ukrainian military with more weapons and equipment may only go so far, House Armed Services Chair ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) cautioned.

“I don’t think it’s realistic to think that we’re going to be able to reinforce them enough in the short-term to repel the invasion,” Smith said Thursday on CNN. “We do need to try and help them as much as possible, and it is quite possible that what we’re looking at here is a more long-term insurgency.”

Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) — a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and chair of the Appropriations subcommittee that controls diplomatic funding and foreign assistance programs — predicts a supplemental would likely exceed $10 billion, with most of the emergency cash going toward humanitarian efforts to address an impending refugee crisis in Europe.

WHO WILL REPLACE INHOFE? Morning Defense also wrote about the race to take over retiring Oklahoma Sen. JIM INHOFE’s place as the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Inhofe’s decision “puts Sen. ROGER WICKER of Mississippi, a leading shipbuilding advocate, in the pole position to become the next ranking member of the SASC — and possibly chair. If he’s not the one, the new top R could be nuclear enterprise champion Sen. DEB FISCHER” of Nebraska.

“If Wicker gets the job, expect him to continue his push to expand the size of the Navy.

Mississippi is home to shipyards that build destroyers and amphibious ships and he has backed the Navy's yearslong goal of reaching over 355 hulls,” Morning D wrote. If it’s not Wicker, “the post would likely fall to Fischer, who would be the first woman to chair the panel.

Fischer has her own parochial defense interests. Nebraska hosts the headquarters of U.S. Strategic Command, which oversees U.S. nuclear weapons. She supports overhauling the arsenal and maintaining the land-based ICBMs and has opposed changes in U.S. nuclear policy, such as declaring a no-first use policy.”

The 87-year-old Inhofe will announce his retirement next week but will stay in his seat until the end of the year.

Broadsides

SASSE WANTS INTEL SHARED WITH UKRAINE: Sen. BEN SASSE (R-Neb.), a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Friday on MSNBC’s "Morning Joe" that the U.S. should send “tactical, actionable intelligence to the Ukrainians on the ground so they can kill the Russian invaders.”

“We need to be arming them to the teeth,” Sasse also recommended, urging Biden to ask Congress for emergency supplemental defense spending and cut off Russia’s access to the SWIFT banking system.

It’s clear he’s pushing the administration to do more, but it’s not a partisan point at this moment since Democrats are saying the same things.

“As we seek to impose maximum costs on Putin, there is more that we can and should do. Congress and the Biden administration must not shy away from any options — including sanctioning the Russian Central Bank, removing Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system, crippling Russia’s key industries, sanctioning Putin personally, and taking all steps to deprive Putin and his inner circle of their assets,” Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in a statement yesterday.

Transitions

— The White House announced the president’s intent to nominate the following people JAY SHAMBAUGH for undersecretary of Treasury for international affairs; WILLIAM DUNCAN as ambassador to El Salvador; and LESSLIE VIGUERIE as ambassador to Kyrgyzstan.

— Save the Children has announced five new board members: JUDY HEUMANN, NADIA RAWLINSON, SAMANTHA VINOGRAD, STEVEN WOLFE PEREIRA and KORYNNE WRIGHT.

What to Read

—POLITICO Magazine: “What Does Putin Really Want?”

— DOUGLAS LONDON, Foreign Affairs: “The Coming Ukrainian Insurgency”

— CHRIS MILLER, The New York Times: “Why is Putin at War Again? Because He Keeps Winning.”

Monday Today

— The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 9:30 a.m.: “U.S.-Europe Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific — with KURT CAMPBELL, HEATHER CONLEY, BONNIE GLASER, GARIMA MOHAN, MIRA RAPP-HOOPER, GABRIELE VISENTIN and GUNNAR WIEGAND”

— Abolition 2000, 10 a.m.: “Youth Engagement to Implement the Right to a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Future — with KEHKASHAN BASU, DANIEL RIETIKER, AIGERIM SEITENOVA, ALYN WARE and CECILI THOMPSON WILLIAMS”

— The Jewish Institute for National Security of America, 11 a.m.: “Iran-Backed Attacks on the United Arab Emirates and Prospects for Regional Air Defense — with YAAKOV AMIDROR, KIRSTEN FONTENROSE, JOHN HANNAH, ADEL HASSAN BIN SANQOOR and DANA STROUL” 

— The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 11 a.m.: “Will Biden’s Upcoming Nuclear Posture Review Make America Safer? — with JOSEPH CIRINCIONE and SHARON WEINER”

— The Atlantic Council, 12:30 p.m.: “Collective Defense and the Crisis in Europe — with ROB BAUER”

— The American Security Project, 1 p.m.: “War in Ukraine: Rapid Response Briefing with CHUCK HAGEL”

— Washington Post Live, 2 p.m.: “World Stage: Ukraine with Sen. MARK WARNER — with DAVID IGNATIUS”

— The League of United Latin American Citizens, 3 p.m.: “Targeted Violence and Terrorism Prevention Grant Program Webinar — with DAVID O’LEARY and HECTOR TEJEDA”

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at [email protected] or [email protected] to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who despite complaints says he “has a strong track record of meeting the priorities of our industry.”

Follow us on Twitter


• Alex Ward @alexbward

Follow Us