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The Russians have paused the invasion, but aren’t losing

Kyiv and Kharkiv are holding for now, but large numbers of Ukrainian soldiers risk being surrounded and cut off in the east.

Aaron PatrickSenior correspondent

Russia’s assault on Kyiv likely paused over the weekend to give the Russian military time to secure more supplies, soldiers and equipment a US think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, said.

The vehicle-born infantry attacking the Ukrainian capital are one of four main assaults on the country from the north, north-east, east and south, which analysts have dubbed the Belarus/Kyiv axis, the Kharkiv axis, the Donbas axis and the Crimea axis.

Satellite images show Russian troops nearing Kyiv, around 60 km northwest of the capital. New York Times

Russia’s military strategy appears to have three primary objectives: surround Lyiv and remove president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his government from power; cut off large numbers of soldiers in eastern Ukrainian defending the Donbas region; and destroy most of the Ukrainian Air Force so Russian planes can bomb, unhindered, Ukrainian soldiers attempting counter-attacks.

While the four-day-old invasion is going more slowly than many experts expected, the Russians aren’t losing. In southern Ukraine, the 22nd Russian Army has advanced from Crimea close to Zaporizhzhia, a city on the Dnieper River of 700,000 people. The advance, which includes the encirclement and attack on the nearby Mariupol, a city of 450,000, poses one of the main threats to the Ukraine army.

If the 22nd Russian Army and Russia’s 1st Tank Army, which is attacking Kharkiv on the northern border, converge in central-eastern Ukraine, large numbers of Ukrainian soldiers in the east will cut off from fuel, food and ammunition.

Those Ukrainian soldiers are fighting the Russian 8th and 20th Combined Arms Armies from the Donbas axis, which are advancing through parts of Ukraine that Russia controlled before the invasion.

Old tactics, new attack

Russian military leaders appear to have launched the frontal attack to tie up Ukrainian forces in the Donbas regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, which they intend to surround with the forces advancing from Crimea. The Soviet Union used similar encirclement tactics many times successfully in World War II.

The Ukrainian forces in Donbas could retreat before they are cut off, perhaps to the Dnieper River. They would then give up approximately half of Ukraine to Russia. The Russian 1st Tank Army near Kharkiv, the 22nd Army from Crimea, and the 8th Combined Arms Army and 20th Combined Arms Army from the Donbas could form one large military force that could attack Kyiv from the east.

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“Russian successes in southern Ukraine are the most dangerous and threaten to unhinge Ukraine’s successful defences and rearguard actions to the north and northeast,” Institute for the Study of War analysts Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko wrote on Sunday.

The Kharkiv axis, an attack from the north-east by the Russian 1st Tank Army, was largely paused over the weekend, the analysts said, to bring up reinforcements and supplies.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, right, and Head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia and First Deputy Defense Minister Valery Gerasimov listen to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday. AP

Russian soldiers entered Kharkiv on Sunday for the first time. Their inability to easily take the city is example of the problem facing both sides.

NATO support

NATO nations are giving anti-tank rockets to the Ukrainians, which are dangerous to Russian tanks and vehicles in cities. The lightweight weapons have a range of about 150 metres and can take about 30 minutes to learn to use, according to Neil James, a former infantryman and executive director of the Australia Defence Association, a lobby group.

Instructions on how to use anti-tank rockets are being distributed on Facebook and Twitter, according to Mr James, who said it was important to aim at tanks’ few weak points, which include a ring connecting the turret to the tank’s body.

During Russia’s attack on the Chechen capital of Grozny in 1994, its tanks and vehicles were initially fought off by separatists fighting from buildings.

The Russians switched to artillery, bombs and missiles, which allowed them to capture the city but killed many civilians and damaged many homes. In Kharkiv on Sunday, the Russians used artillery but didn’t launch a major attack on the city of 1.4 million.

“Ukrainian forces continue to delay and inflict losses on the Russian advance [on Kharkiv] but will likely not be able to halt further advances if the Kremlin commits additional reserves,” the Institute for the Study of War analysts wrote.

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Ukrainian soldiers examine what appears to be a grenade launcher taken from a damaged military vehicle after fighting in Kharkiv on Sunday. Andrew Marienko/AP

Artillery and bomb attacks on Ukrainian cities would likely be effective at reducing resistance, experts say. But the pervasiveness of social media coverage might make Russia wary of inflicting too many civilian casualties and destruction of housing and civilian infrastructure because of the likely international and domestic response.

A Russian thermobaric rocket launcher was seen by a CNN news crew near Kharkiv on Saturday afternoon. The weapons consume oxygen through high-temperature explosions, creating temporary vacuums that rupture and burn lungs.

Potential fifth axis

Russian forces are gathering in Belarus on the Ukrainian border west of Kyiv, according to the Institute for the Study of War, which might be designed to open a fifth axis to cut off military supplies from Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary.

An explosion in Kyiv on the first day of the invasion. Office of the President of Ukraine

Analysts have been surprised that the Ukrainian Air Force continues to fight, although Russia hasn’t used as many planes as it has available.

Some Su-34 fighter-bomber aircraft from the Moscow region were recently relocated to the Belarus airport of Baranovichi, the Ukrainian military said on the weekend, which means they could be used against Kyiv soon.

The Russians haven’t sent in their main tanks or shelled the capital. Instead, they used paratroopers and special forces troops to fight through the city’s northwestern suburbs over the weekend while they brought up for supplies and reinforcements.

Russian forces will likely resume “major offensive operations” on Monday, the Institute for the Study of War said.

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Aaron Patrick
Aaron PatrickSenior correspondentAaron Patrick is the senior correspondent. He writes about politics and business from the Sydney newsroom. Email Aaron at apatrick@afr.com

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