First phase of invasion 'generally' complete, says Russia in downgrading of aims
Pjotr Sauer
Russia’s defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation was “generally” complete, saying the country will focus on the “liberation” of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.
The defence ministry stated Russian-backed separatists now controlled 93% of Luhansk and 54% of Donetsk, the self-proclaimed republics in Ukraine’s east. The two together are commonly known as the Donbas region.
“The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished,” Sergei Rudskoi, the head of the Russian general staff’s main operational directorate said during a briefing.
In Friday’s announcement, Russia also appeared to hint that Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine may be turning to more limited objectives, adding that the main goal of the operation was the “liberation of the Donbas”.
“The combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been considerably reduced, which ... makes it possible to focus our core efforts on achieving the main goal, the liberation of Donbas.”
Russia has been shifting its objectives in Ukraine throughout the war. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, earlier said that the “denazification” of the Ukrainian leadership – generally understood as regime change – was the main motivation for the invasion.
Michael Kofman, the director of the Russia studies programme at the CNA thinktank, on Friday tweeted that the military briefing suggested Russia would focus on “taking as much of the Donbas as possible,” while claiming Donbas was always the main goal of what Kremlin refers to a “special military operation”.
“I had a hypothesis that the more minimal aims Moscow could have at this point is to try to take all of the Donbas, pursue some political settlement, then turn around and claim that’s what this operation was really all about in an effort to salvage something & declare victory,” Kofman tweeted.
The UK has sanctioned 65 individuals and entities with supporting links to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including Kronshtadt, a Russian defence company and the main producer of Russia’s Orion drone and other unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
In a statement, the UK ministry of defence said drone systems have been “widely deployed” in Russia’s invasion.
“Robust Ukrainian air defences has almost certainly limited manned flights beyond their frontlines, hence Russia has highly likely been forced to use more UAVs instead. This is probably leading to greater demand for, and attrition of, these assets. These sanctions will damage Russia’s defence industrial complex and limit their ability to replace their UAV losses,” the statement said.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 25 March 2022
In a video address late on Friday night, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said his country’s forces had delivered “powerful blows” to Russia and that “meaningful, urgent, fair” talks were needed.
Zelenskiy thanked Ukrainians who have fought against the Russian invasion, stating: “Over the past week, our heroic armed forces have dealt powerful blows to the enemy, significant losses.” He said more than 16,000 Russians have been killed, including commanders. Russia says 1,351 soldiers had died in combat.
“I am grateful to our defenders who showed the occupiers that the sea will not be calm for them even when there is no storm. Because there will be fire,” he said in the video address.
“The armed forces continue to repel enemy attacks, in the south of the country, in Donbas, in the Kharkiv direction and in the Kyiv region. By restraining Russia’s actions, our defenders are leading the Russian leadership to a simple and logical idea: talk is necessary. Meaningful, urgent, fair.”
Zelenskiy said that Ukrainian sovereignty must be guaranteed and its territorial integrity ensured.
He added that over the past week 18 humanitarian corridors had been established and 37,606 people rescued from blocked cities.
The Institute for the Study of War, a US thinktank, has released some analysis of comments made on Friday by Sergei Rudskoi, first deputy chief of the Russian general staff.
Rudskoi said Russia had completed “the main tasks of the first stage of the operation”, weakened Ukrainian forces and that it would focus on “liberating” Ukraine’s breakaway eastern Donbas region. The comments appeared to suggest Russia may pursue more limited objectives in Ukraine.
In its analysis, the ISW says the Rudskoi’s comments “were likely aimed mainly at a domestic Russian audience and do not accurately or completely capture current Russian war aims and planned operations”.
Here is some of ISW’s analysis:
Rudskoi’s assertion that securing the unoccupied portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts was always the main objective of Russia’s invasion is false. The Kremlin’s initial campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine.
Rudskoi’s comments could indicate that Russia has scaled back its aims and would now be satisfied with controlling the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, but that reading is likely inaccurate.
Russian forces elsewhere in Ukraine have not stopped fighting and have not entirely stopped attempting to advance and seize more territory. They are also attacking and destroying Ukrainian towns and cities, conducting operations and committing war crimes that do not accord with the objectives Rudskoi claims Russia is pursuing.
Here are some images from Poland on Friday, where protesters gathered following the arrival of Joe Biden. During his visit, the US president has seen efforts to support the more than 2.2 million Ukrainian refugees who have fled to Poland, and spoke to American troops who have been deployed near Poland’s border.
Demonstrators hold Ukrainian flags and signs during a solidarity rally for Ukraine. Photograph: Aleksander Kalka/ZUMA Press Wire/REX/Shutterstock
A demonstrator stands on a portrait of Russian president Vladimir Putin. Photograph: Aleksander Kalka/ZUMA Press Wire/REX/Shutterstock
‘Stop promising, start acting,’ the demonstrators in Warsaw urged. Photograph: Sławomir Kamiński/Agencja Wyborcza.pl/Reuters
On Saturday, Biden will hold a bilateral meeting with the Polish president, Andrzej Duda, and meet with Ukrainian refugees and the Warsaw mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, to discuss relief efforts for those arriving in Poland.
This is Rebecca Ratcliffe in Bangkok, taking over from my colleague Sam Levin.
The UK will fund £2m ($2.6m) in vital food supplies for areas of Ukraine encircled by Russian forces, following a direct request from the government of Ukraine.
Warehouses in Poland and Slovakia are being prepared to supply dried food, tinned goods and water from early next week. Around 25 truckloads will then be transported by road and rail to the local Ukrainian communities in greatest need, according to the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.
Alice Hooper, the FCDO humanitarian adviser, said: “The need on the ground in Ukraine is clear, with so many people in encircled areas trapped in basements without access to food or water. Nearly 6 million children remain in Ukraine, many sheltering inside buildings, which are coming under attack.”
Joe Biden has visited the Polish town of Rzeszów, about an hour’s drive from the Ukrainian border, in a show of support for eastern European states that are seeing Russian aggression wreak havoc in their neighbourhood.
Authorities in Mariupol have said as many as 300 people were killed in a Russian bombing of a theatre last week, putting a death toll for the first time on the deadliest single attack since Moscow launched its invasion.
Vladimir Putin has accused the west of discriminating against Russian culture, comparing the treatment of Russian cultural figures to that of the “cancelled” Harry Potter author JK Rowling.
The French government is trying to pull together an international coalition to negotiate a “humanitarian operation” to evacuate civilians from the besieged and battered southern Ukrainian port of Mariupol.
Russia’s defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation was “generally” complete, saying the country will focus on the “liberation” of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiyagain has urged Russia to negotiate an end to war, but also asserted that Ukraine would not agree to give up any of its territory to achieve peace, according to AP’s report on his nightly video address Friday evening.
Zelenskiy appeared to be responding to Col Gen Sergei Rudskoi, deputy chief of the Russian general staff, who earlier said Russian forces would now focus on “the liberation of Donbas” as the main goal. The AP explains:
Russian-backed separatists have controlled part of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine since 2014, and Russian forces have been battling to seize more of the region from Ukraine, including the besieged city of Mariupol.
Rudskoi’s statement also was a suggestion that Russia may be backing away from trying to take Kyiv and other major cities where its offensive has stalled. Zelenskiy noted that Russian forces have lost thousands of troops but still haven’t been able to take Kyiv or Kharkiv, the second-largest city.
The president also claimed that Russia has lost more than 16,000 troops:
The casualty reports of Russian troops have varied widely. Nato officials earlier this week estimated that 7,000 to 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine, CNN reported, and US officials have put forward similar estimates, but also have said they could not be confident in those numbers.
Russia’s defence ministry earlier said that 1,351 Russian soldiers have died.
Among the most thoroughly documented strikes was the 9 March bombing of a children’s and maternity hospital in Mariupol. Two AP journalists, the last international media to remain in the city after it was encircled by Russian forces, arrived at the hospital minutes after the explosion.
They saw a smoldering two-story deep crater in the interior courtyard, surrounded by the twisted and burned remains of several cars. The force of the explosion tore the facades off three surrounding buildings, blowing out the windows and wrecking rooms inside.
The AP journalists took photos and video of stunned survivors coming out of the hospital. A pregnant woman being carried on a stretcher held her belly, blood staining her sweatpants, her face pale. She later died following an emergency cesarean section at another nearby hospital, according to Dr Timur Marin, one of the surgeons who tried to save her. The woman’s baby also did not survive.
The AP’s analysis notes that these kinds of attacks on hospitals and staff are considered “particularly heinous under international law”, which notes they must be protected. Prosecutors must show the destruction is intentional or reckless for a hospital bombing to be considered a war crime, according to the AP, which is working with Frontline to document such cases. The AP said the evidence for potential war crimes was “mounting and horrendous” and clearly refutes the Russian claims that the stories were “fake news” or that the attacks were militarily justified.
Pavlo Kovtoniuk, a former deputy minister of health and WHO consultant who co-founded the Ukrainian Healthcare Center, told the AP that Russia is bombing “medical infrastructure on purpose, fighting sick people as if they were military”. Kovtoniuk added: “Bombing hospitals is especially cruel because it shows civilian people that there is no safe place for them on Earth,” he said.
Ukraine’s deputy interior minister, Anton Gerashchenko, said in a statement on Facebook this evening that Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, has been absent from public events since mid-March because he suffered a heart attack.
The claim, which has not been independently verified, adds to the mystery surrounding Shoigu, who had not been seen in public for 12 days until he appeared on Russians’ television screens for just a few seconds on Thursday, sitting in the corner box of a teleconference with Vladimir Putin.
Prior to that TV appearance, rumours were spreading that Shoigu may have been punished for the bungle invasion of Ukraine and the failure to capture Kharkiv or Kyiv. Agentstvo, an independent Russian news website, earlier cited a source saying that Shoigu, one of the most trusted men in the nation according to opinion polling, had heart problems, the Guardian’s Andrew Roth noted.
“The defence minister has a lot to deal with right now, as you can understand,” Dmitri Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, said during a briefing. He denied Shoigu was sick. “A special military operation is ongoing. Certainly, now isn’t exactly the right time for media activities. This is quite understandable.”
More here on Shoigu and his mysterious and brief TV appearance:
US first lady Jill Biden visited a children’s hospital in Tennessee today to meet with Ukrainian children with cancer and their families fleeing the war and seeking treatment in America, the Associated Press reports.
At St Jude Children’s Research Hospital, Biden talked privately with Ukrainian pediatric cancer patients and their relatives. St Jude on Monday received four Ukrainian children, ages 9 months to 9 years old, and the children are due to receive cancer treatment and therapy to address emotional and cultural needs, the hospital said, according to AP.
“They seemed comfortable and they didn’t seem sad,” Biden said. “They were just like normal kids, like normal families. It was just, it’s amazing.”
A total of 7,331 people were evacuated today through two humanitarian corridors, said Ukrainian deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk, NBC News reported.
Vereshchuk said that 2,800 of them traveled by car from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia, and that 4,000 were evacuated from Berdyansk by bus, NBC said. She also said that evacuation corridors for the Mariupol, Kyiv and Luhansk regions would be opening this weekend.
The Kyiv Independent further reported Vereshchuk’s demands that all of its citizens deported to Russia from Mariupol be given an opportunity to return:
⚡️Ukraine demands that International Red Cross Committee obtain from Russia lists of deported Mariupol residents.
Ukraine demands that all its citizens deported to Russia from Mariupol are provided with the opportunity to return, says Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 25, 2022
More than half of Ukraine’s children have been displaced after one month of war, according to Unicef. Unicef’s spokesman James Elder was just on CNN to discuss the toll, saying:
First and foremost, these kids need protection from the war that keeps raging around them. They wake up everyday, and there’s another horror story from a family member somewhere in a city that is still under siege ...
Countries have to lead by example to support what is millions of people who didn’t want to leave their homes.”
Some disturbing statistics: “An estimated 1.4 million people now lack access to safe water, while 4.6 million people have limited access to water or are at risk of being cut off. Over 450,000 children aged 6 to 23 months need complementary food support.”
Families in Ukraine have faced horrors that were unimaginable just a month ago.
Some key details from a senior US defense official’s briefing from Warsaw today:
The US has observed more than 1,250 missile launches since the start of the invasion.
It appears that the Russians are at the moment not pursuing a ground offensive towards Kyiv, but, “They are digging in, they are establishing defensive positions, they don’t show any signs of being willing to move on Kyiv from the ground.”
The US is still observing airstrikes on Kyiv, but nothing on the ground “in keeping with our assessment of a couple of days ago that they are going to prioritise the eastern part of the country”.
“We’re seeing the Ukrainians really go now on the offense around Kyiv. That includes to the west of it ... The Russians are in a defensive position around Kyiv on the ground.”
Asked if the US has seen indications that Putin has become more reckless in his tactics as Russia has not achieved its goals, the senior official said, “It’s there for the world to see. I can’t get inside Putin’s mind, and I wouldn’t want to speculate about his personal level of frustration, or whatever decisions he’s making based on the fact that they have been stymied and stalled throughout the country. But you can see for yourself how they have tried to make up for the fact that they haven’t been able to move well on the ground by the increasing use of airstrikes and missile strikes and artillery strikes on population centers.”
AP confirms more than 30 attacks on medical facilities
Over the last month, Russian forces have repeatedly attacked Ukrainian hospitals, ambulances, medics, patients and newborns, according to the Associated Press, which is now reporting that it has independently documented 34 assaults.
More details from the AP on the growing calls for war crimes prosecutions against Putin, his generals and top Kremlin advisers:
To convict, prosecutors will need to show that the attacks are not merely accidents or collateral damage. The emerging pattern, tracked day by day by the AP, shows evidence of a consistent and relentless onslaught against the very civilian infrastructure designed to save lives and provide safe haven to Ukraine’s most vulnerable.
AP journalists in Ukraine have seen the deadly results of Russian strikes on civilian targets first hand: the final moments of children whose tiny bodies were shredded by shrapnel or had limbs blown off; dozens of corpses, including those of children, heaped into mass graves.
Deliberate attacks on hospitals will likely be a top priority for war crimes prosecutors.”
Amid US reports that Russian ground forces have halted their advance on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, do stay tuned as our blog hands from reporter to reporter across the globe, with the Guardian keeping you up to date with developments on the war around the clock.
The US east coast is now passing the news baton to the US west coast.
My colleague Sam Levin, there, will take you through events over the next few hours.
