Bourguiba Square in Tunis, Tahrir Square in Cairo, Azadi Square in Tehran — and now Pearl Square in Manama, capital of Bahrain.
For the last four days, thousands of protesters, encouraged by other popular uprisings in the Middle East, have been demonstrating against what they call “the despotic rule of minority over majority.”
On Monday, police killed two protesters and injured 11 others. At least 50 were arrested.
The sudden explosion has surprised many observers. Bahrain, the smallest of the 21 Arab states, is often deemed a success story — the only Persian Gulf Arab state to have made its fortune without oil, and a haven of moderation. Unlike their sisters in Iran and Arab countries, for example, Bahraini women enjoy full equality and aren’t forced to wear the government-decreed hijab.
Yet Bahrain suffers from a fundamental weakness: Its ruling family, the Al Khalifa tribe from eastern Arabia, is Sunni Muslims, while almost 70 percent of the population are Shiites.
Fear of the Shiites has always been a factor in shaping Al Khalifa’s policies. In 1979, the Shiite mullahs’ seizure of power in Iran, across the water, raised that fear dramatically. The result was a repressive policy designed by Prime Minister Sheik Khalifa Al Khalifa, who established himself as the archipelago’s strongman. Part of that policy consisted of granting Bahraini nationality to thousands of guest workers from Arab Sunni states, especially Sudan.
In the 1990s, the emir, Hamad bin Issa, changed course. He transformed the emirate into a constitutional monarchy with an elected parliament, retitling himself king in the process. The idea was that the Shiite majority could find a voice through the parliament without challenging Al Khalifah’s domination.
That policy worked for over a decade but is now in tatters, for two reasons. First, the government has repeatedly intervened to “massage” election results to prevent the emergence of a Shiite majority. It has also restricted the parliament’s powers, allowing the prime minister to make many major decisions by decree.
Second, the global recession has hit Bahrain hard, reducing job opportunities. Shiites claim that they’re the victims of an undeclared “religious apartheid” that reserves the best jobs for Sunnis, including non-Bahraini Arabs.
King Hamad has just stepped in to calm things down with a promise of unspecified economic and political reforms. But a hard-line faction of the ruling family, grouped around the king’s uncle, is reportedly calling for a crackdown.
Divisions in the opposition may also make a compromise more difficult. Some groups, backed by Tehran, are trying to radicalize the protest movement in the hope of dominating it. Other groups have formed a tactical alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni outfit, in the hope of broadening the base of the movement beyond Shiites.
Why should a remote movement in a remote Arab state, just 3.5 times the size of Washington, DC, and with a population of 700,000, be of concern to anyone beyond its borders?
The main island of the Bahraini archipelago is linked to neighboring Saudi Arabia with a 13 ½-mile-long bridge. Thus, turmoil in Bahrain could easily spread to Saudi Arabia’s Shiite-majority Eastern Province.
Any upheaval in the Saudi province, which contains 80 percent of the kingdom’s oilfields, could push global oil prices through the roof.
Bahrain also hosts a US naval base, while the neighboring Qatar peninsula is the site of massive Centcom bases and arms depots.
Last night, protesters said they’d set up camp in Pearl Square until their “legitimate demands” are met. The standoff continues.