Ukraine's ambassador to the U.K. has warned that Kyiv and its Western partners will face a "critical moment" when Russian President Vladimir Putin floats an insincere peace offering as the Kremlin looks to ease pressure on its beleaguered forces occupying swaths of Ukraine's south and east.
Ambassador Vadym Prystaiko—formerly the foreign affairs minister, head of Ukraine's mission to NATO and the ambassador to Canada—told Newsweek in an interview at Ukraine's Embassy in London that Kyiv and its foreign backers must stand firm and ignore any apparent conciliation from Moscow.
Just hours before Putin ordered a 36-hour cease-fire along the entire Ukrainian front to mark Orthodox Christmas celebrations this weekend, Prystaiko warned against any Russian offer of a temporary halt to the fighting.
"They might offer this and feed it into the system, saying, 'We are peaceful, we're offering the cease-fire,' using this time—as they did with the Minsk agreements—to reshape their own military and to resupply." He was referring to the deals that paused fighting in the east of Ukraine in 2014 and 2015.
Putin's cease-fire offer—which was immediately rejected by Ukraine—could prove part of a larger Russian deception operation, Prystaiko said.
To get inside the Russian mind, Prystaiko said, "I use the same exercise as I did when I was chief negotiator for the Minsk agreement."
He went on: "If I'm a Russian, I would raise the stakes, I will say each and every time that we're not going to negotiate with Ukraine, we have to finish this work. All the targets of the so-called special military operation are being achieved or will be achieved very soon. But at some time, I would offer another 'goodwill gesture.'
"I would keep the rhetoric high and then drop an information bomb, like Putin is open for negotiations with President Joe Biden or NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. Not with all of you [Ukrainians] because I'm so high above you.
"Then it will be a very difficult moment for all of us, especially for Ukrainians," he continued. "Ukraine will come under a lot of pressure from our international partners.... This will be a critical moment where we have to remind them that sovereignty is the basic thing. Without this, they will come again. And not just for us."
Joking, he said, "I understand that I will sound like a 'warmonger.'" He added that he believes victory is possible in 2023: "I don't believe that it will drag on longer than a year."
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry for comment.
A 'Digestible' Peace
There appears little chance of imminent negotiations between the two countries. Ukraine is demanding the full withdrawal of all Russian troops from its territory according to the 1991 borders, reparations, war crime prosecutions for Russian leaders and permanent security guarantees with NATO membership.
Russia is demanding an acknowledgment of its annexation of four partially occupied Ukrainian regions and has maintained its goals of demilitarizing and "denazifying" Ukraine, which would mean a regime change.
Last month, Kyiv proposed a 10-point peace plan and suggested a peace summit, to be held under United Nations guidance, in February.
The plan calls for restoring safety around the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant; food security; energy security, including restrictions on Russian energy resources; release of all prisoners and return of all deportees; restoring Ukraine's full territorial integrity; and the withdrawal of all Russian troops.
The plan also demands the establishment of a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes; a new security architecture in the Euro-Atlantic space to avoid future escalation, including guarantees for Ukraine; and a signed confirmation that the war has ended.
Putin has acknowledged that negotiations may be needed to end the fighting, but Moscow has dismissed the plan and the proposed February peace summit. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said last month that the plan was an "illusion."
Prystaiko said Kyiv is "trying sincerely to find something which will be at least digestible for everybody."
"It seems that this particular one is not very much aimed at Russia itself," he said. "Russia is offering some ideas, but it's not a Russian-Ukrainian peace plan, it's rather Ukraine's peace plan. And we'll see how the world will react to that."
He continued: "What is interesting about this plan is that unlike previous attempts—like the Minsk agreements, for example—it is not tied into a time frame. So people can work on different plans with energy security, with food security. There are separate pieces."
Ukraine's long-term need for security guarantees is "very important," Prystaiko said, suggesting that certain parties are "dancing around" the question. "We understand that we'll have to fight through this to achieve victory. How do we survive then?"
Ukraine has proposed the Kyiv Security Compact as an interim security arrangement to safeguard the country while it pushes for NATO membership. National leaders have made clear that the alliance's collective defense protection means membership is Ukraine's best existing option.
"Our conversation with the rest of the world—at least the Western world—should be very easy. Ukraine wins, becomes a member of the European Union and NATO. And that's it," Prystaiko said.
"I think the 10-point plan needs some work, I hope that leaders will see the place of their nations in it," Prystaiko said. "But I still hope that somebody will have enough courage to work with the tough security [question].... Somebody will have to help us actually win this war."
'Losing People Left and Right'
Ukraine is not willing to discuss concessions, its leaders have made clear. Any suggestions to the contrary have been met with immediate backlash. Polls show the vast majority of Ukrainians want to keep fighting.
"We've been in the war for almost a year now," Prystaiko said. "We're losing people left and right. We're not advertising how many of those lost are military or civilians, but you can imagine that numbers are huge, indigestible. And the cities, some of them are totally destroyed."
He continued: "If we stop right now for any sort of peace negotiations, the Russians will try to keep their land grabs, whatever they've managed to achieve up until now. And most of these areas are quite crucial. For example, this land bridge to Crimea."
He went on: "They will proclaim victory, meaning they are not going to discuss peace plans because they will tell their own people: 'We've finished up. We reduced the military capabilities of Ukraine via demilitarization, we grew stronger because we have more people, more regions, more everything. And we showed these capitalist pigs that the multipolar world is being restored. Yes, we lost some soldiers, but that was for the sake of the greatness of Mother Russia.'"
Kyiv must make its commitment to liberating all Ukrainian territory—including Crimea—clear to foreign partners, the ambassador said. "We have to be extremely strong and focused on bringing over this message, that we are not trading our lands.
"The West now has a unique chance," Prystaiko said. "There are not many nations in the world who would allow themselves to sacrifice so many lives, territories and decades of development for the purpose of defeating the archenemy."
He continued: "I understand the problem of Russia's nuclear arsenal, that in the end they can push the button and destroy the whole planet. I even understand what Elon Musk is saying and worrying about. But that's what we face now or later. They're not becoming better"
"This is what I mean: All hands on deck, every single thing we can spare to help Ukraine win," he said.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
David Brennan is Newsweek's Diplomatic Correspondent covering world politics and conflicts from London with a focus on NATO, the European ... Read more
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